Uncertainty in recent near-surface wind speed trends: a global reanalysis intercomparison
Reanalysis products have become a tool for wind energy users requiring information about the wind speed long-term variability. These users are sensitive to many aspects of the observational references they employ to estimate the wind resource, such as the mean wind, its seasonality and long-term tre...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2017-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa8a58 |
| _version_ | 1827870799021735936 |
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| author | Verónica Torralba Francisco J Doblas-Reyes Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego |
| author_facet | Verónica Torralba Francisco J Doblas-Reyes Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego |
| author_sort | Verónica Torralba |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Reanalysis products have become a tool for wind energy users requiring information about the wind speed long-term variability. These users are sensitive to many aspects of the observational references they employ to estimate the wind resource, such as the mean wind, its seasonality and long-term trends. However, the assessment of the ability of atmospheric reanalyses to reproduce wind speed trends has not been undertaken yet. The wind speed trends have been estimated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERA-I), the second version of the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) and the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) for the period 1980–2015. These trends show a strong spatial and seasonal variability with an overall increase of the wind speed over the ocean and a tendency to a decline over land, although important disagreements between the different reanalyses have been found. In particular, the JRA-55 reanalysis produces more intense trends over land than ERA-I and MERRA-2. This can be linked to the negative bias affecting the JRA-55 near-surface wind speeds over land. In all the reanalyses high wind speeds tend to change faster than both low and average wind speeds. The agreement of the wind speed trends at 850 hPa with those found close to the surface suggests that the main driver of the wind speed trends are the changes in large-scale circulation. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:02:06Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ebae6e595b074eb9861294dc2a10554d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:02:06Z |
| publishDate | 2017-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-ebae6e595b074eb9861294dc2a10554d2023-08-09T14:37:29ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262017-01-01121111401910.1088/1748-9326/aa8a58Uncertainty in recent near-surface wind speed trends: a global reanalysis intercomparisonVerónica Torralba0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8941-1548Francisco J Doblas-Reyes1Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego2Earth Sciences Department Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) , C/Jordi Girona, 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain; Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.Earth Sciences Department Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) , C/Jordi Girona, 29, 08034 Barcelona, Spain; ICREA , Pg. Lluís Companys, 23, 08010, Barcelona, SpainEarth Sciences Department Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) , C/Jordi Girona, 29, 08034 Barcelona, SpainReanalysis products have become a tool for wind energy users requiring information about the wind speed long-term variability. These users are sensitive to many aspects of the observational references they employ to estimate the wind resource, such as the mean wind, its seasonality and long-term trends. However, the assessment of the ability of atmospheric reanalyses to reproduce wind speed trends has not been undertaken yet. The wind speed trends have been estimated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERA-I), the second version of the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) and the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) for the period 1980–2015. These trends show a strong spatial and seasonal variability with an overall increase of the wind speed over the ocean and a tendency to a decline over land, although important disagreements between the different reanalyses have been found. In particular, the JRA-55 reanalysis produces more intense trends over land than ERA-I and MERRA-2. This can be linked to the negative bias affecting the JRA-55 near-surface wind speeds over land. In all the reanalyses high wind speeds tend to change faster than both low and average wind speeds. The agreement of the wind speed trends at 850 hPa with those found close to the surface suggests that the main driver of the wind speed trends are the changes in large-scale circulation.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa8a58wind speed variabilitytrendsERA-InterimJRA-55MERRA-2 |
| spellingShingle | Verónica Torralba Francisco J Doblas-Reyes Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego Uncertainty in recent near-surface wind speed trends: a global reanalysis intercomparison Environmental Research Letters wind speed variability trends ERA-Interim JRA-55 MERRA-2 |
| title | Uncertainty in recent near-surface wind speed trends: a global reanalysis intercomparison |
| title_full | Uncertainty in recent near-surface wind speed trends: a global reanalysis intercomparison |
| title_fullStr | Uncertainty in recent near-surface wind speed trends: a global reanalysis intercomparison |
| title_full_unstemmed | Uncertainty in recent near-surface wind speed trends: a global reanalysis intercomparison |
| title_short | Uncertainty in recent near-surface wind speed trends: a global reanalysis intercomparison |
| title_sort | uncertainty in recent near surface wind speed trends a global reanalysis intercomparison |
| topic | wind speed variability trends ERA-Interim JRA-55 MERRA-2 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa8a58 |
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