Population Exposure Projections to Intensified Summer Heat
Abstract Population aging, an increasing share of the elderly to the total population, can exacerbate heat vulnerability to intensified heat hazards. However, the aging impacts on increases in exposure of the elderly to unprecedented hot summers (UHSs) could be variable in the warming climate. Here,...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2022-02-01
|
| Series: | Earth's Future |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002602 |
| _version_ | 1797871617303379968 |
|---|---|
| author | Chang‐Eui Park Sujong Jeong |
| author_facet | Chang‐Eui Park Sujong Jeong |
| author_sort | Chang‐Eui Park |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Population aging, an increasing share of the elderly to the total population, can exacerbate heat vulnerability to intensified heat hazards. However, the aging impacts on increases in exposure of the elderly to unprecedented hot summers (UHSs) could be variable in the warming climate. Here, we present considerable contribution of age structure changes to increases in the elders' exposure to intensified UHSs in countries with a high percentage of youth population, namely, China, India, and Brazil, by analyzing combined scenarios of climate change with population structure. In the aforementioned regions, increases in exposure to stronger UHSs relevant to rapid aging will exceed at least half of the warming impact, which primarily causes frequent occurrence of stronger UHSs. Conversely, the United States and Europe, which have already entered an aged society, show a negligible aging impact. These results suggest that the future evolution of a society's age structure is an important constraint for projecting population exposure to strengthened summer heat. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T00:45:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ebb0fdeadd9441aa8d5d5f123a67d74e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T00:45:34Z |
| publishDate | 2022-02-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj.art-ebb0fdeadd9441aa8d5d5f123a67d74e2023-03-13T21:56:24ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772022-02-01102n/an/a10.1029/2021EF002602Population Exposure Projections to Intensified Summer HeatChang‐Eui Park0Sujong Jeong1Department of Environmental Planning Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University Seoul Republic of KoreaDepartment of Environmental Planning Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University Seoul Republic of KoreaAbstract Population aging, an increasing share of the elderly to the total population, can exacerbate heat vulnerability to intensified heat hazards. However, the aging impacts on increases in exposure of the elderly to unprecedented hot summers (UHSs) could be variable in the warming climate. Here, we present considerable contribution of age structure changes to increases in the elders' exposure to intensified UHSs in countries with a high percentage of youth population, namely, China, India, and Brazil, by analyzing combined scenarios of climate change with population structure. In the aforementioned regions, increases in exposure to stronger UHSs relevant to rapid aging will exceed at least half of the warming impact, which primarily causes frequent occurrence of stronger UHSs. Conversely, the United States and Europe, which have already entered an aged society, show a negligible aging impact. These results suggest that the future evolution of a society's age structure is an important constraint for projecting population exposure to strengthened summer heat.https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002602 |
| spellingShingle | Chang‐Eui Park Sujong Jeong Population Exposure Projections to Intensified Summer Heat Earth's Future |
| title | Population Exposure Projections to Intensified Summer Heat |
| title_full | Population Exposure Projections to Intensified Summer Heat |
| title_fullStr | Population Exposure Projections to Intensified Summer Heat |
| title_full_unstemmed | Population Exposure Projections to Intensified Summer Heat |
| title_short | Population Exposure Projections to Intensified Summer Heat |
| title_sort | population exposure projections to intensified summer heat |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002602 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT changeuipark populationexposureprojectionstointensifiedsummerheat AT sujongjeong populationexposureprojectionstointensifiedsummerheat |