Impact of Indo-Pacific warm pool Hadley circulation on the seasonal forecast performance for summer precipitation over the western North Pacific
The western North Pacific summer climate affects the densely populated East Asian countries, while seasonal forecasting over these regions remains challenging for dynamical models. This study evaluates the effect of the spring Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) Hadley circulation on the forecast performa...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba97c |
| _version_ | 1797747828347371520 |
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| author | Yi-Peng Guo Xiangbo Feng Nicholas P Klingaman Zhe-Min Tan |
| author_facet | Yi-Peng Guo Xiangbo Feng Nicholas P Klingaman Zhe-Min Tan |
| author_sort | Yi-Peng Guo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The western North Pacific summer climate affects the densely populated East Asian countries, while seasonal forecasting over these regions remains challenging for dynamical models. This study evaluates the effect of the spring Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) Hadley circulation on the forecast performance for summer western North Pacific (WNP) precipitation in the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System (GloSea5). GloSea5 skillfully predicts IPWP Hadley circulation, but has moderate forecast skill for summer WNP precipitation. Compared to observations, the significant relationship between the spring IPWP Hadley circulation and the summer WNP precipitation is overestimated in most hindcast members and in the ensemble mean. Furthermore, we confirmed that the forecast ensemble members with a stronger such regional circulation–precipitation relationship have better forecast performance for the summer WNP precipitation, suggesting the importance of such a relationship for the seasonal forecast of WNP precipitation. These results also imply the need to further investigate other important factors for the WNP precipitation, the effects of which may be suppressed by the overestimated regional circulation–precipitation relationship in GloSea5. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:57:11Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ebd29f6864534f72871fd5897187943d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:57:11Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-ebd29f6864534f72871fd5897187943d2023-08-09T14:53:24ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262020-01-01151010404110.1088/1748-9326/aba97cImpact of Indo-Pacific warm pool Hadley circulation on the seasonal forecast performance for summer precipitation over the western North PacificYi-Peng Guo0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2473-2578Xiangbo Feng1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4143-107XNicholas P Klingaman2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303Zhe-Min Tan3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2227-6900Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education, and School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University , Nanjing, 163 Xianlin Avenue, Nanjing 210023, People’s Republic of ChinaNational Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading , Reading, United KingdomNational Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading , Reading, United KingdomKey Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education, and School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University , Nanjing, 163 Xianlin Avenue, Nanjing 210023, People’s Republic of ChinaThe western North Pacific summer climate affects the densely populated East Asian countries, while seasonal forecasting over these regions remains challenging for dynamical models. This study evaluates the effect of the spring Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) Hadley circulation on the forecast performance for summer western North Pacific (WNP) precipitation in the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System (GloSea5). GloSea5 skillfully predicts IPWP Hadley circulation, but has moderate forecast skill for summer WNP precipitation. Compared to observations, the significant relationship between the spring IPWP Hadley circulation and the summer WNP precipitation is overestimated in most hindcast members and in the ensemble mean. Furthermore, we confirmed that the forecast ensemble members with a stronger such regional circulation–precipitation relationship have better forecast performance for the summer WNP precipitation, suggesting the importance of such a relationship for the seasonal forecast of WNP precipitation. These results also imply the need to further investigate other important factors for the WNP precipitation, the effects of which may be suppressed by the overestimated regional circulation–precipitation relationship in GloSea5.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba97cHadley circulationprecipitationwestern North Pacificseasonal forecast |
| spellingShingle | Yi-Peng Guo Xiangbo Feng Nicholas P Klingaman Zhe-Min Tan Impact of Indo-Pacific warm pool Hadley circulation on the seasonal forecast performance for summer precipitation over the western North Pacific Environmental Research Letters Hadley circulation precipitation western North Pacific seasonal forecast |
| title | Impact of Indo-Pacific warm pool Hadley circulation on the seasonal forecast performance for summer precipitation over the western North Pacific |
| title_full | Impact of Indo-Pacific warm pool Hadley circulation on the seasonal forecast performance for summer precipitation over the western North Pacific |
| title_fullStr | Impact of Indo-Pacific warm pool Hadley circulation on the seasonal forecast performance for summer precipitation over the western North Pacific |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of Indo-Pacific warm pool Hadley circulation on the seasonal forecast performance for summer precipitation over the western North Pacific |
| title_short | Impact of Indo-Pacific warm pool Hadley circulation on the seasonal forecast performance for summer precipitation over the western North Pacific |
| title_sort | impact of indo pacific warm pool hadley circulation on the seasonal forecast performance for summer precipitation over the western north pacific |
| topic | Hadley circulation precipitation western North Pacific seasonal forecast |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba97c |
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