The roles of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Niño for entry stratospheric water vapor in observations and coupled chemistry–ocean CCMI and CMIP6 models
<p>The relative importance of two processes that help control the concentrations of stratospheric water vapor, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are evaluated in observations and in comprehensive coupled ocean–atmosphere-chemistry models. The possib...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2022-06-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| Online Access: | https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/7523/2022/acp-22-7523-2022.pdf |
| _version_ | 1811258203616313344 |
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| author | S. Ziskin Ziv S. Ziskin Ziv C. I. Garfinkel S. Davis A. Banerjee A. Banerjee |
| author_facet | S. Ziskin Ziv S. Ziskin Ziv C. I. Garfinkel S. Davis A. Banerjee A. Banerjee |
| author_sort | S. Ziskin Ziv |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>The relative importance of two processes that help control the concentrations of stratospheric water vapor, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are evaluated in observations and in comprehensive coupled ocean–atmosphere-chemistry models. The possibility of nonlinear interactions between these two is evaluated both using multiple linear regression (MLR) and three additional advanced machine learning techniques. The QBO is found to be more important than ENSO; however nonlinear interactions are nonnegligible, and even when ENSO, the QBO, and potential nonlinearities are included, the fraction of entry water vapor variability explained is still substantially less than what is accounted for by cold-point temperatures. While the advanced machine learning techniques perform better than an MLR in which nonlinearities are suppressed, adding nonlinear predictors to the MLR mostly closes the gap in performance with the advanced machine learning techniques. Comprehensive models suffer from too weak a connection between entry water and the QBO; however a notable improvement is found relative to previous generations of comprehensive models. Models with a stronger QBO in the lower stratosphere systematically simulate a more realistic connection with entry water.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T18:09:38Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ebd8d64bce1b493ca36ef9c307cea83d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1680-7316 1680-7324 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T18:09:38Z |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-ebd8d64bce1b493ca36ef9c307cea83d2022-12-22T03:21:52ZengCopernicus PublicationsAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics1680-73161680-73242022-06-01227523753810.5194/acp-22-7523-2022The roles of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Niño for entry stratospheric water vapor in observations and coupled chemistry–ocean CCMI and CMIP6 modelsS. Ziskin Ziv0S. Ziskin Ziv1C. I. Garfinkel2S. Davis3A. Banerjee4A. Banerjee5Department of Physics, Ariel University, Ariel, IsraelEastern R&D Center, Ariel, IsraelThe Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, IsraelNOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USANOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USACooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA<p>The relative importance of two processes that help control the concentrations of stratospheric water vapor, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are evaluated in observations and in comprehensive coupled ocean–atmosphere-chemistry models. The possibility of nonlinear interactions between these two is evaluated both using multiple linear regression (MLR) and three additional advanced machine learning techniques. The QBO is found to be more important than ENSO; however nonlinear interactions are nonnegligible, and even when ENSO, the QBO, and potential nonlinearities are included, the fraction of entry water vapor variability explained is still substantially less than what is accounted for by cold-point temperatures. While the advanced machine learning techniques perform better than an MLR in which nonlinearities are suppressed, adding nonlinear predictors to the MLR mostly closes the gap in performance with the advanced machine learning techniques. Comprehensive models suffer from too weak a connection between entry water and the QBO; however a notable improvement is found relative to previous generations of comprehensive models. Models with a stronger QBO in the lower stratosphere systematically simulate a more realistic connection with entry water.</p>https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/7523/2022/acp-22-7523-2022.pdf |
| spellingShingle | S. Ziskin Ziv S. Ziskin Ziv C. I. Garfinkel S. Davis A. Banerjee A. Banerjee The roles of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Niño for entry stratospheric water vapor in observations and coupled chemistry–ocean CCMI and CMIP6 models Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| title | The roles of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Niño for entry stratospheric water vapor in observations and coupled chemistry–ocean CCMI and CMIP6 models |
| title_full | The roles of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Niño for entry stratospheric water vapor in observations and coupled chemistry–ocean CCMI and CMIP6 models |
| title_fullStr | The roles of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Niño for entry stratospheric water vapor in observations and coupled chemistry–ocean CCMI and CMIP6 models |
| title_full_unstemmed | The roles of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Niño for entry stratospheric water vapor in observations and coupled chemistry–ocean CCMI and CMIP6 models |
| title_short | The roles of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and El Niño for entry stratospheric water vapor in observations and coupled chemistry–ocean CCMI and CMIP6 models |
| title_sort | roles of the quasi biennial oscillation and el nino for entry stratospheric water vapor in observations and coupled chemistry ocean ccmi and cmip6 models |
| url | https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/7523/2022/acp-22-7523-2022.pdf |
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