What do we mean, ‘tipping cascade’?
Based on suggested interactions of potential tipping elements in the Earth’s climate and in ecological systems, tipping cascades as possible dynamics are increasingly discussed and studied. The activation of such tipping cascades would impose a considerable risk for human societies and biosphere int...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3955 |
| _version_ | 1827869983657426944 |
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| author | Ann Kristin Klose Nico Wunderling Ricarda Winkelmann Jonathan F Donges |
| author_facet | Ann Kristin Klose Nico Wunderling Ricarda Winkelmann Jonathan F Donges |
| author_sort | Ann Kristin Klose |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Based on suggested interactions of potential tipping elements in the Earth’s climate and in ecological systems, tipping cascades as possible dynamics are increasingly discussed and studied. The activation of such tipping cascades would impose a considerable risk for human societies and biosphere integrity. However, there are ambiguities in the description of tipping cascades within the literature so far. Here we illustrate how different patterns of multiple tipping dynamics emerge from a very simple coupling of two previously studied idealized tipping elements. In particular, we distinguish between a two phase cascade, a domino cascade and a joint cascade. A mitigation of an unfolding two phase cascade may be possible and common early warning indicators are sensitive to upcoming critical transitions to a certain degree. In contrast, a domino cascade may hardly be stopped once initiated and critical slowing down-based indicators fail to indicate tipping of the following element. These different potentials for intervention and anticipation across the distinct patterns of multiple tipping dynamics should be seen as a call to be more precise in future analyses of cascading dynamics arising from tipping element interactions in the Earth system. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:51:23Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ebf2f59bb970407ba2d2765eb7ef9cd0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:51:23Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-ebf2f59bb970407ba2d2765eb7ef9cd02023-08-09T15:08:40ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262021-01-01161212501110.1088/1748-9326/ac3955What do we mean, ‘tipping cascade’?Ann Kristin Klose0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4043-7357Nico Wunderling1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3566-323XRicarda Winkelmann2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1248-3217Jonathan F Donges3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5233-7703FutureLab Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene, Earth System Analysis & Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association , 14473 Potsdam, Germany; Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam , 14476 Potsdam, GermanyFutureLab Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene, Earth System Analysis & Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association , 14473 Potsdam, Germany; Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam , 14476 Potsdam, Germany; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University , Stockholm SE-10691, SwedenFutureLab Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene, Earth System Analysis & Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association , 14473 Potsdam, Germany; Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam , 14476 Potsdam, GermanyFutureLab Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene, Earth System Analysis & Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association , 14473 Potsdam, Germany; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University , Stockholm SE-10691, SwedenBased on suggested interactions of potential tipping elements in the Earth’s climate and in ecological systems, tipping cascades as possible dynamics are increasingly discussed and studied. The activation of such tipping cascades would impose a considerable risk for human societies and biosphere integrity. However, there are ambiguities in the description of tipping cascades within the literature so far. Here we illustrate how different patterns of multiple tipping dynamics emerge from a very simple coupling of two previously studied idealized tipping elements. In particular, we distinguish between a two phase cascade, a domino cascade and a joint cascade. A mitigation of an unfolding two phase cascade may be possible and common early warning indicators are sensitive to upcoming critical transitions to a certain degree. In contrast, a domino cascade may hardly be stopped once initiated and critical slowing down-based indicators fail to indicate tipping of the following element. These different potentials for intervention and anticipation across the distinct patterns of multiple tipping dynamics should be seen as a call to be more precise in future analyses of cascading dynamics arising from tipping element interactions in the Earth system.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3955tipping cascadedomino effecttipping interactionscascading regime shiftsearly warning indicators |
| spellingShingle | Ann Kristin Klose Nico Wunderling Ricarda Winkelmann Jonathan F Donges What do we mean, ‘tipping cascade’? Environmental Research Letters tipping cascade domino effect tipping interactions cascading regime shifts early warning indicators |
| title | What do we mean, ‘tipping cascade’? |
| title_full | What do we mean, ‘tipping cascade’? |
| title_fullStr | What do we mean, ‘tipping cascade’? |
| title_full_unstemmed | What do we mean, ‘tipping cascade’? |
| title_short | What do we mean, ‘tipping cascade’? |
| title_sort | what do we mean tipping cascade |
| topic | tipping cascade domino effect tipping interactions cascading regime shifts early warning indicators |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3955 |
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