Dynamic modelling shows substantial contribution of ecosystem restoration to climate change mitigation
Limiting global warming to a 1.5°C temperature rise requires drastic emissions reductions and removal of carbon-dioxide from the atmosphere. Most modelled pathways for 1.5°C assume substantial removals in the form of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage, which brings with it increasing ris...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3c6c |
| _version_ | 1797747181066649600 |
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| author | Emma W Littleton Kate Dooley Gordon Webb Anna B Harper Tom Powell Zebedee Nicholls Malte Meinshausen Timothy M Lenton |
| author_facet | Emma W Littleton Kate Dooley Gordon Webb Anna B Harper Tom Powell Zebedee Nicholls Malte Meinshausen Timothy M Lenton |
| author_sort | Emma W Littleton |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Limiting global warming to a 1.5°C temperature rise requires drastic emissions reductions and removal of carbon-dioxide from the atmosphere. Most modelled pathways for 1.5°C assume substantial removals in the form of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage, which brings with it increasing risks to biodiversity and food security via extensive land-use change. Recently, multiple efforts to describe and quantify potential removals via ecosystem-based approaches have gained traction in the climate policy discourse. However, these options have yet to be evaluated in a systematic and scientifically robust way. We provide spatially explicit estimates of ecosystem restoration potential quantified with a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. Simulations covering forest restoration, reforestation, reduced harvest, agroforestry and silvopasture were combined and found to sequester an additional 93 Gt C by 2100, reducing mean global temperature increase by ∼0.12°C (5%–95% range 0.06°C–0.21°C) relative to a baseline mitigation pathway. Ultimately, pathways to achieving the 1.5°C goal garner broader public support when they include land management options that can bring about multiple benefits, including ecosystem restoration, biodiversity protection, and resilient agricultural practices. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:48:25Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ec803cdde65a469cb03fde1132ab0178 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:48:25Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-ec803cdde65a469cb03fde1132ab01782023-08-09T15:20:57ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262021-01-01161212406110.1088/1748-9326/ac3c6cDynamic modelling shows substantial contribution of ecosystem restoration to climate change mitigationEmma W Littleton0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5576-5498Kate Dooley1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5636-6691Gordon Webb2Anna B Harper3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7294-6039Tom Powell4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5240-0351Zebedee Nicholls5https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4767-2723Malte Meinshausen6https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4048-3521Timothy M Lenton7https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6725-7498College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter , Exeter, EX4 4QJ, United Kingdom; Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter , Exeter, EX4 4QJ, United KingdomSchool of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne , Parkville 3010, Australia; Climate & Energy College, University of Melbourne , Parkville 3010, AustraliaSchool of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne , Parkville 3010, AustraliaCollege of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter , Exeter, EX4 4QJ, United Kingdom; Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter , Exeter, EX4 4QJ, United KingdomGlobal Systems Institute, University of Exeter , Exeter, EX4 4QJ, United KingdomSchool of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne , Parkville 3010, Australia; Climate & Energy College, University of Melbourne , Parkville 3010, AustraliaSchool of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne , Parkville 3010, Australia; Climate & Energy College, University of Melbourne , Parkville 3010, AustraliaGlobal Systems Institute, University of Exeter , Exeter, EX4 4QJ, United KingdomLimiting global warming to a 1.5°C temperature rise requires drastic emissions reductions and removal of carbon-dioxide from the atmosphere. Most modelled pathways for 1.5°C assume substantial removals in the form of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage, which brings with it increasing risks to biodiversity and food security via extensive land-use change. Recently, multiple efforts to describe and quantify potential removals via ecosystem-based approaches have gained traction in the climate policy discourse. However, these options have yet to be evaluated in a systematic and scientifically robust way. We provide spatially explicit estimates of ecosystem restoration potential quantified with a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. Simulations covering forest restoration, reforestation, reduced harvest, agroforestry and silvopasture were combined and found to sequester an additional 93 Gt C by 2100, reducing mean global temperature increase by ∼0.12°C (5%–95% range 0.06°C–0.21°C) relative to a baseline mitigation pathway. Ultimately, pathways to achieving the 1.5°C goal garner broader public support when they include land management options that can bring about multiple benefits, including ecosystem restoration, biodiversity protection, and resilient agricultural practices.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3c6cnature based solutionsreforestationagroforestryDGVMclimate change |
| spellingShingle | Emma W Littleton Kate Dooley Gordon Webb Anna B Harper Tom Powell Zebedee Nicholls Malte Meinshausen Timothy M Lenton Dynamic modelling shows substantial contribution of ecosystem restoration to climate change mitigation Environmental Research Letters nature based solutions reforestation agroforestry DGVM climate change |
| title | Dynamic modelling shows substantial contribution of ecosystem restoration to climate change mitigation |
| title_full | Dynamic modelling shows substantial contribution of ecosystem restoration to climate change mitigation |
| title_fullStr | Dynamic modelling shows substantial contribution of ecosystem restoration to climate change mitigation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Dynamic modelling shows substantial contribution of ecosystem restoration to climate change mitigation |
| title_short | Dynamic modelling shows substantial contribution of ecosystem restoration to climate change mitigation |
| title_sort | dynamic modelling shows substantial contribution of ecosystem restoration to climate change mitigation |
| topic | nature based solutions reforestation agroforestry DGVM climate change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3c6c |
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