Challenges in the Forecasting of Severe Typhoon Koinu in 2023
Hong Kong was under the direct hit of Severe Typhoon Koinu (2314) on 8 and 9 October 2023, necessitating the issuance of the Increasing Gale or Storm Signal, No. 9. Koinu was a very challenging case for TC forecasting and warning services due to its compact size and erratic movement over the norther...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/1/31 |
| _version_ | 1797344719275032576 |
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| author | Yu-Heng He Pak-Wai Chan |
| author_facet | Yu-Heng He Pak-Wai Chan |
| author_sort | Yu-Heng He |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Hong Kong was under the direct hit of Severe Typhoon Koinu (2314) on 8 and 9 October 2023, necessitating the issuance of the Increasing Gale or Storm Signal, No. 9. Koinu was a very challenging case for TC forecasting and warning services due to its compact size and erratic movement over the northern part of the South China Sea. This paper reviews the difficulties and challenges of the forecasting aspect of the severe typhoon. The predicted tropical cyclone track and intensity from both conventional models and emerging artificial intelligence models are examined, as well as local wind and rainfall forecast. Experience in this case study showed that while deterministic global models only performed moderately and were not able to adequately support early warning, a regional model and AI models could more effectively support decision making for an operational tropical cyclone warning service. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T11:06:49Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ecbd19fa6a104ca0b43e82ec681e64b6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T11:06:49Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-ecbd19fa6a104ca0b43e82ec681e64b62024-01-26T15:01:37ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332023-12-011513110.3390/atmos15010031Challenges in the Forecasting of Severe Typhoon Koinu in 2023Yu-Heng He0Pak-Wai Chan1Hong Kong Observatory, 134A Nathan Road, Kowloon, Hong Kong, ChinaHong Kong Observatory, 134A Nathan Road, Kowloon, Hong Kong, ChinaHong Kong was under the direct hit of Severe Typhoon Koinu (2314) on 8 and 9 October 2023, necessitating the issuance of the Increasing Gale or Storm Signal, No. 9. Koinu was a very challenging case for TC forecasting and warning services due to its compact size and erratic movement over the northern part of the South China Sea. This paper reviews the difficulties and challenges of the forecasting aspect of the severe typhoon. The predicted tropical cyclone track and intensity from both conventional models and emerging artificial intelligence models are examined, as well as local wind and rainfall forecast. Experience in this case study showed that while deterministic global models only performed moderately and were not able to adequately support early warning, a regional model and AI models could more effectively support decision making for an operational tropical cyclone warning service.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/1/31tropical cyclonetrackintensitywindrainfall |
| spellingShingle | Yu-Heng He Pak-Wai Chan Challenges in the Forecasting of Severe Typhoon Koinu in 2023 Atmosphere tropical cyclone track intensity wind rainfall |
| title | Challenges in the Forecasting of Severe Typhoon Koinu in 2023 |
| title_full | Challenges in the Forecasting of Severe Typhoon Koinu in 2023 |
| title_fullStr | Challenges in the Forecasting of Severe Typhoon Koinu in 2023 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Challenges in the Forecasting of Severe Typhoon Koinu in 2023 |
| title_short | Challenges in the Forecasting of Severe Typhoon Koinu in 2023 |
| title_sort | challenges in the forecasting of severe typhoon koinu in 2023 |
| topic | tropical cyclone track intensity wind rainfall |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/1/31 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT yuhenghe challengesintheforecastingofseveretyphoonkoinuin2023 AT pakwaichan challengesintheforecastingofseveretyphoonkoinuin2023 |