Spatio-temporal dynamic of the COVID-19 epidemic and the impact of imported cases in Rwanda
Abstract Introduction Africa was threatened by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) due to the limited health care infrastructure. Rwanda has consistently used non-pharmaceutical strategies, such as lockdown, curfew, and enforcement of prevention measures to control the spread of COVID-19. Despit...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2023-05-01
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| Series: | BMC Public Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-15888-1 |
| _version_ | 1797817738900537344 |
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| author | Muhammed Semakula François Niragire Sabin Nsanzimana Eric Remera Christel Faes |
| author_facet | Muhammed Semakula François Niragire Sabin Nsanzimana Eric Remera Christel Faes |
| author_sort | Muhammed Semakula |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Introduction Africa was threatened by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) due to the limited health care infrastructure. Rwanda has consistently used non-pharmaceutical strategies, such as lockdown, curfew, and enforcement of prevention measures to control the spread of COVID-19. Despite the mitigation measures taken, the country has faced a series of outbreaks in 2020 and 2021. In this paper, we investigate the nature of epidemic phenomena in Rwanda and the impact of imported cases on the spread of COVID-19 using endemic-epidemic spatio-temporal models. Our study provides a framework for understanding the dynamics of the epidemic in Rwanda and monitoring its phenomena to inform public health decision-makers for timely and targeted interventions. Results The findings provide insights into the effects of lockdown and imported infections in Rwanda’s COVID-19 outbreaks. The findings showed that imported infections are dominated by locally transmitted cases. The high incidence was predominant in urban areas and at the borders of Rwanda with its neighboring countries. The inter-district spread of COVID-19 was very limited due to mitigation measures taken in Rwanda. Conclusion The study recommends using evidence-based decisions in the management of epidemics and integrating statistical models in the analytics component of the health information system. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T08:58:54Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ecbd21b3ef3a4ee4ab0763210c551dc7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2458 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T08:58:54Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-ecbd21b3ef3a4ee4ab0763210c551dc72023-05-28T11:30:06ZengBMCBMC Public Health1471-24582023-05-0123111310.1186/s12889-023-15888-1Spatio-temporal dynamic of the COVID-19 epidemic and the impact of imported cases in RwandaMuhammed Semakula0François Niragire1Sabin Nsanzimana2Eric Remera3Christel Faes4I-BioStat, Hasselt UniversityDepartment of Applied Statistics, University of Rwanda, KigaliRwanda Biomedical Centre, Ministry of HealthRwanda Biomedical Centre, Ministry of HealthI-BioStat, Hasselt UniversityAbstract Introduction Africa was threatened by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) due to the limited health care infrastructure. Rwanda has consistently used non-pharmaceutical strategies, such as lockdown, curfew, and enforcement of prevention measures to control the spread of COVID-19. Despite the mitigation measures taken, the country has faced a series of outbreaks in 2020 and 2021. In this paper, we investigate the nature of epidemic phenomena in Rwanda and the impact of imported cases on the spread of COVID-19 using endemic-epidemic spatio-temporal models. Our study provides a framework for understanding the dynamics of the epidemic in Rwanda and monitoring its phenomena to inform public health decision-makers for timely and targeted interventions. Results The findings provide insights into the effects of lockdown and imported infections in Rwanda’s COVID-19 outbreaks. The findings showed that imported infections are dominated by locally transmitted cases. The high incidence was predominant in urban areas and at the borders of Rwanda with its neighboring countries. The inter-district spread of COVID-19 was very limited due to mitigation measures taken in Rwanda. Conclusion The study recommends using evidence-based decisions in the management of epidemics and integrating statistical models in the analytics component of the health information system.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-15888-1COVID-19Spatio-temporal modelsEpidemiology |
| spellingShingle | Muhammed Semakula François Niragire Sabin Nsanzimana Eric Remera Christel Faes Spatio-temporal dynamic of the COVID-19 epidemic and the impact of imported cases in Rwanda BMC Public Health COVID-19 Spatio-temporal models Epidemiology |
| title | Spatio-temporal dynamic of the COVID-19 epidemic and the impact of imported cases in Rwanda |
| title_full | Spatio-temporal dynamic of the COVID-19 epidemic and the impact of imported cases in Rwanda |
| title_fullStr | Spatio-temporal dynamic of the COVID-19 epidemic and the impact of imported cases in Rwanda |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatio-temporal dynamic of the COVID-19 epidemic and the impact of imported cases in Rwanda |
| title_short | Spatio-temporal dynamic of the COVID-19 epidemic and the impact of imported cases in Rwanda |
| title_sort | spatio temporal dynamic of the covid 19 epidemic and the impact of imported cases in rwanda |
| topic | COVID-19 Spatio-temporal models Epidemiology |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-15888-1 |
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