To vaccinate or to isolate? Establishing which intervention leads to measurable mortality reduction during the COVID-19 Delta wave in Poland
BackgroundDuring the Delta variant COVID-19 wave in Poland there were serious regional differences in vaccination rates and discrepancies in the enforcement of pandemic preventive measures, which allowed us to assess the relative effectiveness of the policies implemented.MethodsCreating a model that...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-09-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Public Health |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1221964/full |
| _version_ | 1797690450937643008 |
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| author | Marcin Piotr Walkowiak Dariusz Walkowiak Jarosław Walkowiak |
| author_facet | Marcin Piotr Walkowiak Dariusz Walkowiak Jarosław Walkowiak |
| author_sort | Marcin Piotr Walkowiak |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundDuring the Delta variant COVID-19 wave in Poland there were serious regional differences in vaccination rates and discrepancies in the enforcement of pandemic preventive measures, which allowed us to assess the relative effectiveness of the policies implemented.MethodsCreating a model that would predict mortality based on vaccination rates among the most vulnerable groups and the timing of the wave peak enabled us to calculate to what extent flattening the curve reduced mortality. Subsequently, a model was created to assess which preventive measures delayed the peak of infection waves. Combining those two models allowed us to estimate the relative effectiveness of those measures.ResultsFlattening the infection curve worked: according to our model, each week of postponing the peak of the wave reduced excess deaths by 1.79%. Saving a single life during the Delta wave required one of the following: either the vaccination of 57 high-risk people, or 1,258 low-risk people to build herd immunity, or the isolation of 334 infected individuals for a cumulative period of 10.1 years, or finally quarantining 782 contacts for a cumulative period of 19.3 years.ConclusionsExcept for the most disciplined societies, vaccination of high-risk individuals followed by vaccinating low-risk groups should have been the top priority instead of relying on isolation and quarantine measures which can incur disproportionately higher social costs. Our study demonstrates that even in a country with uniform policies, implementation outcomes varied, highlighting the importance of fine-tuning policies to regional specificity. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T02:00:45Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ecf4325bbab84982888dbb4a0b2a881d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-2565 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T02:00:45Z |
| publishDate | 2023-09-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-ecf4325bbab84982888dbb4a0b2a881d2023-09-07T19:39:12ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Public Health2296-25652023-09-011110.3389/fpubh.2023.12219641221964To vaccinate or to isolate? Establishing which intervention leads to measurable mortality reduction during the COVID-19 Delta wave in PolandMarcin Piotr Walkowiak0Dariusz Walkowiak1Jarosław Walkowiak2Department of Preventive Medicine, Poznan University of Medical Sciences, Poznań, PolandDepartment of Organization and Management in Health Care, Poznan University of Medical Sciences, Poznań, PolandDepartment of Pediatric Gastroenterology and Metabolic Diseases, Poznan University of Medical Sciences, Poznań, PolandBackgroundDuring the Delta variant COVID-19 wave in Poland there were serious regional differences in vaccination rates and discrepancies in the enforcement of pandemic preventive measures, which allowed us to assess the relative effectiveness of the policies implemented.MethodsCreating a model that would predict mortality based on vaccination rates among the most vulnerable groups and the timing of the wave peak enabled us to calculate to what extent flattening the curve reduced mortality. Subsequently, a model was created to assess which preventive measures delayed the peak of infection waves. Combining those two models allowed us to estimate the relative effectiveness of those measures.ResultsFlattening the infection curve worked: according to our model, each week of postponing the peak of the wave reduced excess deaths by 1.79%. Saving a single life during the Delta wave required one of the following: either the vaccination of 57 high-risk people, or 1,258 low-risk people to build herd immunity, or the isolation of 334 infected individuals for a cumulative period of 10.1 years, or finally quarantining 782 contacts for a cumulative period of 19.3 years.ConclusionsExcept for the most disciplined societies, vaccination of high-risk individuals followed by vaccinating low-risk groups should have been the top priority instead of relying on isolation and quarantine measures which can incur disproportionately higher social costs. Our study demonstrates that even in a country with uniform policies, implementation outcomes varied, highlighting the importance of fine-tuning policies to regional specificity.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1221964/fullCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2vaccinationevidence-based policyflattening the curve |
| spellingShingle | Marcin Piotr Walkowiak Dariusz Walkowiak Jarosław Walkowiak To vaccinate or to isolate? Establishing which intervention leads to measurable mortality reduction during the COVID-19 Delta wave in Poland Frontiers in Public Health COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 vaccination evidence-based policy flattening the curve |
| title | To vaccinate or to isolate? Establishing which intervention leads to measurable mortality reduction during the COVID-19 Delta wave in Poland |
| title_full | To vaccinate or to isolate? Establishing which intervention leads to measurable mortality reduction during the COVID-19 Delta wave in Poland |
| title_fullStr | To vaccinate or to isolate? Establishing which intervention leads to measurable mortality reduction during the COVID-19 Delta wave in Poland |
| title_full_unstemmed | To vaccinate or to isolate? Establishing which intervention leads to measurable mortality reduction during the COVID-19 Delta wave in Poland |
| title_short | To vaccinate or to isolate? Establishing which intervention leads to measurable mortality reduction during the COVID-19 Delta wave in Poland |
| title_sort | to vaccinate or to isolate establishing which intervention leads to measurable mortality reduction during the covid 19 delta wave in poland |
| topic | COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 vaccination evidence-based policy flattening the curve |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1221964/full |
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