Impacts of climate change mitigation on agriculture water use: A provincial analysis in China
Agriculture consumes huge amounts of water in China and is profoundly affected by climate change. This study projects the agricultural water use towards 2030 under the climate change mitigation target at the provincial level in China by linking a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and a regr...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2020-09-01
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| Series: | Geography and Sustainability |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683920300298 |
| _version_ | 1818640210110447616 |
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| author | Chaoyi Guo Hancheng Dai Xiaorui Liu Yazhen Wu Xiaoyu Liu Yong Liu |
| author_facet | Chaoyi Guo Hancheng Dai Xiaorui Liu Yazhen Wu Xiaoyu Liu Yong Liu |
| author_sort | Chaoyi Guo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Agriculture consumes huge amounts of water in China and is profoundly affected by climate change. This study projects the agricultural water use towards 2030 under the climate change mitigation target at the provincial level in China by linking a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and a regression model. By solving the endogeneities amongst agricultural water use, output and climate factors, we explore how these variables affect water use and further predict future trends through soft-link with the IMED|CGE model. It is found that sunshine duration has a slightly positive impact on water use. Furthermore, agricultural output will significantly drive agricultural water use based on historical data of the past 16 years. Results also show that carbon reduction would have a trade-off or co-benefit effect on water use due to regional disparity. Provinces with increasing agricultural exports, such as Xinjiang and Ningxia, would anticipate considerable growth in agricultural water use induced by carbon reduction. The soft-link method proposed by this study could be applied for future studies that aim to incorporate natural and geographical factors into human activities, and vice versa, for assessing sustainable development policies in an integrated way. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-16T23:07:39Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ed1c89c4695f46d29a3eebb9b1f5bde3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2666-6839 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-16T23:07:39Z |
| publishDate | 2020-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geography and Sustainability |
| spelling | doaj.art-ed1c89c4695f46d29a3eebb9b1f5bde32022-12-21T22:12:31ZengElsevierGeography and Sustainability2666-68392020-09-0113189199Impacts of climate change mitigation on agriculture water use: A provincial analysis in ChinaChaoyi Guo0Hancheng Dai1Xiaorui Liu2Yazhen Wu3Xiaoyu Liu4Yong Liu5College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, ChinaCollege of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; Corresponding author.College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, ChinaCollege of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, ChinaCollege of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of All Materials Flux in Rivers, Beijing 100871, ChinaCollege of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of All Materials Flux in Rivers, Beijing 100871, ChinaAgriculture consumes huge amounts of water in China and is profoundly affected by climate change. This study projects the agricultural water use towards 2030 under the climate change mitigation target at the provincial level in China by linking a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and a regression model. By solving the endogeneities amongst agricultural water use, output and climate factors, we explore how these variables affect water use and further predict future trends through soft-link with the IMED|CGE model. It is found that sunshine duration has a slightly positive impact on water use. Furthermore, agricultural output will significantly drive agricultural water use based on historical data of the past 16 years. Results also show that carbon reduction would have a trade-off or co-benefit effect on water use due to regional disparity. Provinces with increasing agricultural exports, such as Xinjiang and Ningxia, would anticipate considerable growth in agricultural water use induced by carbon reduction. The soft-link method proposed by this study could be applied for future studies that aim to incorporate natural and geographical factors into human activities, and vice versa, for assessing sustainable development policies in an integrated way.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683920300298Climate changeAgricultural water useSoft linkIMED|CGERegression modelCo-benefit |
| spellingShingle | Chaoyi Guo Hancheng Dai Xiaorui Liu Yazhen Wu Xiaoyu Liu Yong Liu Impacts of climate change mitigation on agriculture water use: A provincial analysis in China Geography and Sustainability Climate change Agricultural water use Soft link IMED|CGE Regression model Co-benefit |
| title | Impacts of climate change mitigation on agriculture water use: A provincial analysis in China |
| title_full | Impacts of climate change mitigation on agriculture water use: A provincial analysis in China |
| title_fullStr | Impacts of climate change mitigation on agriculture water use: A provincial analysis in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impacts of climate change mitigation on agriculture water use: A provincial analysis in China |
| title_short | Impacts of climate change mitigation on agriculture water use: A provincial analysis in China |
| title_sort | impacts of climate change mitigation on agriculture water use a provincial analysis in china |
| topic | Climate change Agricultural water use Soft link IMED|CGE Regression model Co-benefit |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683920300298 |
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