Long-Term Maximum and Minimum Temperature Projections Over Metro Vancouver, Canada
Evident climate change has been observed and projected in observation records and General Circulation Models (GCMs), respectively. This change is expected to reshape current seasonal variability; the degree varies between regions. High-resolution climate projections are thereby necessary to support...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2021-09-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Earth Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.742840/full |
| _version_ | 1818619826831097856 |
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| author | Chuyin Tian Guohe Huang Guohe Huang Yanli Liu Denghua Yan Feng Wang Ruixin Duan |
| author_facet | Chuyin Tian Guohe Huang Guohe Huang Yanli Liu Denghua Yan Feng Wang Ruixin Duan |
| author_sort | Chuyin Tian |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Evident climate change has been observed and projected in observation records and General Circulation Models (GCMs), respectively. This change is expected to reshape current seasonal variability; the degree varies between regions. High-resolution climate projections are thereby necessary to support further regional impact assessment. In this study, a gated recurrent unit-based recurrent neural network statistical downscaling model is developed to project future temperature change (both daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature) over Metro Vancouver, Canada. Three indexes (i.e., coefficient of determinant, root mean square error, and correlation coefficient) are estimated for model validation, indicating the developed model’s competitive ability to simulate the regional climatology of Metro Vancouver. Monthly comparisons between simulation and observation also highlight the effectiveness of the proposed downscaling method. The projected results (under one model set-up, WRF-MPI-ESM-LR, RCP 8.5) show that both maximum and minimum temperature will consistently increase between 2,035 and 2,100 over the 12 selected meteorological stations. By the end of this century, the daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature are expected to increase by an average of 2.91°C and 2.98°C. Nevertheless, with trivial increases in summer and significant rises in winter and spring, the seasonal variability will be reduced substantially, which indicates less energy requirement over Metro Vancouver. This is quite favorable for Metro Vancouver to switch from fossil fuel-based energy sources to renewable and clean forms of energy. Further, the cold extremes’ frequency of minimum temperature will be reduced as expected; however, despite evident warming trend, the hot extremes of maximum temperature will become less frequent. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-16T17:43:40Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ed28b185789645e2a91702b97ad0320b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-6463 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-16T17:43:40Z |
| publishDate | 2021-09-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Earth Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-ed28b185789645e2a91702b97ad0320b2022-12-21T22:22:31ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Earth Science2296-64632021-09-01910.3389/feart.2021.742840742840Long-Term Maximum and Minimum Temperature Projections Over Metro Vancouver, CanadaChuyin Tian0Guohe Huang1Guohe Huang2Yanli Liu3Denghua Yan4Feng Wang5Ruixin Duan6Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, SK, CanadaFaculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, SK, CanadaState Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, China-Canada Center for Energy, Environment and Ecology Research, School of Environment, UR-BNU, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydrology—Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, ChinaChina Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, ChinaState Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, China-Canada Center for Energy, Environment and Ecology Research, School of Environment, UR-BNU, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, ChinaState Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, China-Canada Center for Energy, Environment and Ecology Research, School of Environment, UR-BNU, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, ChinaEvident climate change has been observed and projected in observation records and General Circulation Models (GCMs), respectively. This change is expected to reshape current seasonal variability; the degree varies between regions. High-resolution climate projections are thereby necessary to support further regional impact assessment. In this study, a gated recurrent unit-based recurrent neural network statistical downscaling model is developed to project future temperature change (both daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature) over Metro Vancouver, Canada. Three indexes (i.e., coefficient of determinant, root mean square error, and correlation coefficient) are estimated for model validation, indicating the developed model’s competitive ability to simulate the regional climatology of Metro Vancouver. Monthly comparisons between simulation and observation also highlight the effectiveness of the proposed downscaling method. The projected results (under one model set-up, WRF-MPI-ESM-LR, RCP 8.5) show that both maximum and minimum temperature will consistently increase between 2,035 and 2,100 over the 12 selected meteorological stations. By the end of this century, the daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature are expected to increase by an average of 2.91°C and 2.98°C. Nevertheless, with trivial increases in summer and significant rises in winter and spring, the seasonal variability will be reduced substantially, which indicates less energy requirement over Metro Vancouver. This is quite favorable for Metro Vancouver to switch from fossil fuel-based energy sources to renewable and clean forms of energy. Further, the cold extremes’ frequency of minimum temperature will be reduced as expected; however, despite evident warming trend, the hot extremes of maximum temperature will become less frequent.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.742840/fullclimate changestatistical downscalingregional climate modellong-term projectionrecurrent neural network |
| spellingShingle | Chuyin Tian Guohe Huang Guohe Huang Yanli Liu Denghua Yan Feng Wang Ruixin Duan Long-Term Maximum and Minimum Temperature Projections Over Metro Vancouver, Canada Frontiers in Earth Science climate change statistical downscaling regional climate model long-term projection recurrent neural network |
| title | Long-Term Maximum and Minimum Temperature Projections Over Metro Vancouver, Canada |
| title_full | Long-Term Maximum and Minimum Temperature Projections Over Metro Vancouver, Canada |
| title_fullStr | Long-Term Maximum and Minimum Temperature Projections Over Metro Vancouver, Canada |
| title_full_unstemmed | Long-Term Maximum and Minimum Temperature Projections Over Metro Vancouver, Canada |
| title_short | Long-Term Maximum and Minimum Temperature Projections Over Metro Vancouver, Canada |
| title_sort | long term maximum and minimum temperature projections over metro vancouver canada |
| topic | climate change statistical downscaling regional climate model long-term projection recurrent neural network |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.742840/full |
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