Attribution of European precipitation and temperature trends to changes in synoptic circulation
Surface climate in Europe is changing and patterns in trends have been found to vary at sub-seasonal scales. This study aims to contribute to a better understanding of these changes across space and time by analysing to what degree observed climatic trends can be attributed to changes in synoptic at...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2015-07-01
|
| Series: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/19/3093/2015/hess-19-3093-2015.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818603041265287168 |
|---|---|
| author | A. K. Fleig L. M. Tallaksen P. James H. Hisdal K. Stahl |
| author_facet | A. K. Fleig L. M. Tallaksen P. James H. Hisdal K. Stahl |
| author_sort | A. K. Fleig |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Surface climate in Europe is changing and patterns in trends have been found
to vary at sub-seasonal scales. This study aims to contribute to a better
understanding of these changes across space and time by analysing to what
degree observed climatic trends can be attributed to changes in synoptic
atmospheric circulation. The relative importance of synoptic circulation
changes (i.e. trends in synoptic type frequencies) as opposed to trends in
the hydrothermal properties of synoptic types (within-type trends) on
precipitation and temperature trends in Europe is assessed on a monthly
basis. The study is based on mapping spatial and temporal trend patterns and
their variability at a relatively high resolution (0.5° × 0.5°;
monthly) across Europe. Gridded precipitation and
temperature data (1963–2001) originate from the Watch Forcing Data set and
synoptic types are defined by the objective SynopVis Grosswetterlagen (SVG).
During the study period, relatively high influence of synoptic circulation
changes are found from January to March, contributing to wetting trends in
northern Europe and drying in the south. Simultaneously, particularly dry
synoptic types get warmer first in south-western Europe in November and/or December
and affect most of Europe in March and/or April. Strong influence of
synoptic circulation changes is again found in June and August. In general,
changes in synoptic circulation has a stronger effect on climate trends in north-western
Europe than in the south-east. The exact locations of the strongest
influence of synoptic circulation changes vary with the time of year and to
some degree between precipitation and temperature. Throughout the year and
across the whole of Europe, precipitation and temperature trends are caused
by a combination of synoptic circulation changes and within-type changes
with their relative influence varying between regions, months and climate
variables. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-16T13:16:52Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ed4697eaa283426cb372b4b6e92e4657 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-16T13:16:52Z |
| publishDate | 2015-07-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-ed4697eaa283426cb372b4b6e92e46572022-12-21T22:30:28ZengCopernicus PublicationsHydrology and Earth System Sciences1027-56061607-79382015-07-011973093310710.5194/hess-19-3093-2015Attribution of European precipitation and temperature trends to changes in synoptic circulationA. K. Fleig0L. M. Tallaksen1P. James2H. Hisdal3K. Stahl4Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, P.O. Box 5091, Majorstua, 0301 Oslo, NorwayDepartment of Geosciences, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1047 Blindern, 0316 Oslo, NorwayDeutscher Wetterdienst, Frankfurter Strasse 135, 63037 Offenbach, GermanyNorwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, P.O. Box 5091, Majorstua, 0301 Oslo, NorwayHydrology, University of Freiburg, Fahnenbergplatz, 79098 Freiburg, GermanySurface climate in Europe is changing and patterns in trends have been found to vary at sub-seasonal scales. This study aims to contribute to a better understanding of these changes across space and time by analysing to what degree observed climatic trends can be attributed to changes in synoptic atmospheric circulation. The relative importance of synoptic circulation changes (i.e. trends in synoptic type frequencies) as opposed to trends in the hydrothermal properties of synoptic types (within-type trends) on precipitation and temperature trends in Europe is assessed on a monthly basis. The study is based on mapping spatial and temporal trend patterns and their variability at a relatively high resolution (0.5° × 0.5°; monthly) across Europe. Gridded precipitation and temperature data (1963–2001) originate from the Watch Forcing Data set and synoptic types are defined by the objective SynopVis Grosswetterlagen (SVG). During the study period, relatively high influence of synoptic circulation changes are found from January to March, contributing to wetting trends in northern Europe and drying in the south. Simultaneously, particularly dry synoptic types get warmer first in south-western Europe in November and/or December and affect most of Europe in March and/or April. Strong influence of synoptic circulation changes is again found in June and August. In general, changes in synoptic circulation has a stronger effect on climate trends in north-western Europe than in the south-east. The exact locations of the strongest influence of synoptic circulation changes vary with the time of year and to some degree between precipitation and temperature. Throughout the year and across the whole of Europe, precipitation and temperature trends are caused by a combination of synoptic circulation changes and within-type changes with their relative influence varying between regions, months and climate variables.http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/19/3093/2015/hess-19-3093-2015.pdf |
| spellingShingle | A. K. Fleig L. M. Tallaksen P. James H. Hisdal K. Stahl Attribution of European precipitation and temperature trends to changes in synoptic circulation Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Attribution of European precipitation and temperature trends to changes in synoptic circulation |
| title_full | Attribution of European precipitation and temperature trends to changes in synoptic circulation |
| title_fullStr | Attribution of European precipitation and temperature trends to changes in synoptic circulation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Attribution of European precipitation and temperature trends to changes in synoptic circulation |
| title_short | Attribution of European precipitation and temperature trends to changes in synoptic circulation |
| title_sort | attribution of european precipitation and temperature trends to changes in synoptic circulation |
| url | http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/19/3093/2015/hess-19-3093-2015.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT akfleig attributionofeuropeanprecipitationandtemperaturetrendstochangesinsynopticcirculation AT lmtallaksen attributionofeuropeanprecipitationandtemperaturetrendstochangesinsynopticcirculation AT pjames attributionofeuropeanprecipitationandtemperaturetrendstochangesinsynopticcirculation AT hhisdal attributionofeuropeanprecipitationandtemperaturetrendstochangesinsynopticcirculation AT kstahl attributionofeuropeanprecipitationandtemperaturetrendstochangesinsynopticcirculation |