Impact of spatial and temporal resource distribution on rabies dynamics in the Arctic
In the Arctic, rabies is endemic in the Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus), posing a significant and ongoing health risk for people and domestic animals. The mechanisms by which rabies is maintained within the low-density fox populations in the Arctic remain unclear. In this study, we developed a spatially...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Canadian Science Publishing
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Arctic Science |
| Online Access: | https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/10.1139/AS-2023-0024 |
| _version_ | 1797356503238180864 |
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| author | Agathe Allibert François Viard Caroline C. Sauvé Audrey Simon Erin Elizabeth Rees Patrick Leighton |
| author_facet | Agathe Allibert François Viard Caroline C. Sauvé Audrey Simon Erin Elizabeth Rees Patrick Leighton |
| author_sort | Agathe Allibert |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In the Arctic, rabies is endemic in the Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus), posing a significant and ongoing health risk for people and domestic animals. The mechanisms by which rabies is maintained within the low-density fox populations in the Arctic remain unclear. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit individual-based stochastic epidemiological model and performed an uncertainty analysis to better understand Arctic fox rabies dynamics. Rabies persisted in 25.68% of model simulations, with several variables having significant impact on rabies persistence: probability of rabies transmission, spatial and temporal distribution food resources, mean litter size and variability of rabies incubation periods. Where rabies is endemic, we identified 5 key parameters for rabies dynamics: spatiotemporal resource distribution, probability of birth for adult females, mean and standard deviation of litter size, and incubation period of rabies. Our study demonstrates that Arctic rabies can persist in its primary host under conditions consistent with existing empirical data in the literature and showed the important role played by the spatial and temporal distribution of resources. Finally, our results suggest that the ecological impacts of rapid climate warming could decrease the overall persistence of rabies in the Arctic and the associated health risk in Arctic communities. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T14:27:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ed928e6ba8b14a8bb82d8751d3ab3027 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2368-7460 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T14:27:37Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Canadian Science Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Arctic Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-ed928e6ba8b14a8bb82d8751d3ab30272024-01-12T21:40:42ZengCanadian Science PublishingArctic Science2368-74602024-01-0110.1139/AS-2023-0024Impact of spatial and temporal resource distribution on rabies dynamics in the ArcticAgathe Allibert0François Viard1Caroline C. Sauvé2Audrey Simon3Erin Elizabeth Rees4Patrick Leighton5Groupe de recherche en épidémiologie des zoonoses et santé publique (GREZOSP), Faculté de médecine vétérinaire, Université de Montréal, Montréal, Quebec, CanadaGroupe de recherche en épidémiologie des zoonoses et santé publique (GREZOSP), Faculté de médecine vétérinaire, Université de Montréal, Montréal, Quebec, CanadaGroupe de recherche en épidémiologie des zoonoses et santé publique (GREZOSP), Faculté de médecine vétérinaire, Université de Montréal, Montréal, Quebec, CanadaGroupe de recherche en épidémiologie des zoonoses et santé publique (GREZOSP), Faculté de médecine vétérinaire, Université de Montréal, Montréal, Quebec, CanadaPublic Health Agency of Canada, 41687, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada;Groupe de recherche en épidémiologie des zoonoses et santé publique (GREZOSP), Faculté de médecine vétérinaire, Université de Montréal, Montréal, Quebec, CanadaIn the Arctic, rabies is endemic in the Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus), posing a significant and ongoing health risk for people and domestic animals. The mechanisms by which rabies is maintained within the low-density fox populations in the Arctic remain unclear. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit individual-based stochastic epidemiological model and performed an uncertainty analysis to better understand Arctic fox rabies dynamics. Rabies persisted in 25.68% of model simulations, with several variables having significant impact on rabies persistence: probability of rabies transmission, spatial and temporal distribution food resources, mean litter size and variability of rabies incubation periods. Where rabies is endemic, we identified 5 key parameters for rabies dynamics: spatiotemporal resource distribution, probability of birth for adult females, mean and standard deviation of litter size, and incubation period of rabies. Our study demonstrates that Arctic rabies can persist in its primary host under conditions consistent with existing empirical data in the literature and showed the important role played by the spatial and temporal distribution of resources. Finally, our results suggest that the ecological impacts of rapid climate warming could decrease the overall persistence of rabies in the Arctic and the associated health risk in Arctic communities.https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/10.1139/AS-2023-0024 |
| spellingShingle | Agathe Allibert François Viard Caroline C. Sauvé Audrey Simon Erin Elizabeth Rees Patrick Leighton Impact of spatial and temporal resource distribution on rabies dynamics in the Arctic Arctic Science |
| title | Impact of spatial and temporal resource distribution on rabies dynamics in the Arctic |
| title_full | Impact of spatial and temporal resource distribution on rabies dynamics in the Arctic |
| title_fullStr | Impact of spatial and temporal resource distribution on rabies dynamics in the Arctic |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of spatial and temporal resource distribution on rabies dynamics in the Arctic |
| title_short | Impact of spatial and temporal resource distribution on rabies dynamics in the Arctic |
| title_sort | impact of spatial and temporal resource distribution on rabies dynamics in the arctic |
| url | https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/10.1139/AS-2023-0024 |
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