Observed and projected trends in spring flood discharges for the Upper Harricana River, eastern boreal Canada
Study region: In northwestern Québec, the Upper Harricana River is representative of the Abitibi Plains’ hydrological dynamics over the last 250 years. Study focus: Planning for future spring flood risks involves uncertainties. This research presents a multicentury evaluation of changes in spring me...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-08-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581823001490 |
| _version_ | 1797784181432909824 |
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| author | A.F. Nolin M.P. Girardin J.F. Adamowski R. Barzegar M.-A. Boucher J.C. Tardif Y. Bergeron |
| author_facet | A.F. Nolin M.P. Girardin J.F. Adamowski R. Barzegar M.-A. Boucher J.C. Tardif Y. Bergeron |
| author_sort | A.F. Nolin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: In northwestern Québec, the Upper Harricana River is representative of the Abitibi Plains’ hydrological dynamics over the last 250 years. Study focus: Planning for future spring flood risks involves uncertainties. This research presents a multicentury evaluation of changes in spring mean discharge and flood drivers using streamflow reconstruction (1771–2016), observations (1915–2020) and projections (2021–2100). New hydrological insights for the region: Using a downscaled CMIP5 ensemble of 10 global climate models (GCMs), generalized additive mixed modeling of mean spring discharge projections matched those of an independent mechanistic model and eight GCMs projected variability in spring discharge by 2100 to be similar to the historical variability reconstructed for the last 250 years across the Abitibi Plains. Results indicate that the projected decline in snow cover (–20 to –30% annual snowfall) and rise in winter and spring temperature may be offset by a greater contribution of rainfall to spring high discharge (+100 to +125 mm). However, two GCMs projected an increase in the magnitude and frequency of high mean spring discharge for the Abitibi Plains. By investigating future mean spring discharge for the Upper Harricana River in reference to past reconstructed variability, this study provides insights to inform the future management of regional water resources. The importance of estimating future regional flood risks from the behavior of multi-model ensembles is highlighted. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T00:37:18Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-edefbfed7d074ee68766967eab17d7be |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T00:37:18Z |
| publishDate | 2023-08-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj.art-edefbfed7d074ee68766967eab17d7be2023-07-10T04:04:16ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182023-08-0148101462Observed and projected trends in spring flood discharges for the Upper Harricana River, eastern boreal CanadaA.F. Nolin0M.P. Girardin1J.F. Adamowski2R. Barzegar3M.-A. Boucher4J.C. Tardif5Y. Bergeron6Institut de recherche sur les forêts, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT), Rouyn-Noranda, Québec, Canada; Centre for Forest Interdisciplinary Research (C-FIR), University of Winnipeg, Department of Biology/Environmental Studies & Sciences, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada; Centre d’étude de la forêt, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM), CP 8888, Succ. A Montréal, Montréal, Québec, Canada; School of Geography, Development & Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, USA; Laboratory of Tree Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA; Corresponding author at: Institut de recherche sur les forêts, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT), Rouyn-Noranda, Québec, Canada.Centre d’étude de la forêt, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM), CP 8888, Succ. A Montréal, Montréal, Québec, Canada; Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, Québec, Québec, CanadaDepartment of Bioresource Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, McGill University, Québec, CanadaDepartment of Bioresource Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, McGill University, Québec, Canada; Groundwater Research Group (GRES), Research Institute on Mines and Environment (RIME), Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT), Amos, Québec, CanadaDépartement de génie civil et de génie du bâtiment, Faculté de Génie, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, Québec, CanadaCentre for Forest Interdisciplinary Research (C-FIR), University of Winnipeg, Department of Biology/Environmental Studies & Sciences, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada; Centre d’étude de la forêt, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM), CP 8888, Succ. A Montréal, Montréal, Québec, CanadaInstitut de recherche sur les forêts, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT), Rouyn-Noranda, Québec, Canada; Centre d’étude de la forêt, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM), CP 8888, Succ. A Montréal, Montréal, Québec, CanadaStudy region: In northwestern Québec, the Upper Harricana River is representative of the Abitibi Plains’ hydrological dynamics over the last 250 years. Study focus: Planning for future spring flood risks involves uncertainties. This research presents a multicentury evaluation of changes in spring mean discharge and flood drivers using streamflow reconstruction (1771–2016), observations (1915–2020) and projections (2021–2100). New hydrological insights for the region: Using a downscaled CMIP5 ensemble of 10 global climate models (GCMs), generalized additive mixed modeling of mean spring discharge projections matched those of an independent mechanistic model and eight GCMs projected variability in spring discharge by 2100 to be similar to the historical variability reconstructed for the last 250 years across the Abitibi Plains. Results indicate that the projected decline in snow cover (–20 to –30% annual snowfall) and rise in winter and spring temperature may be offset by a greater contribution of rainfall to spring high discharge (+100 to +125 mm). However, two GCMs projected an increase in the magnitude and frequency of high mean spring discharge for the Abitibi Plains. By investigating future mean spring discharge for the Upper Harricana River in reference to past reconstructed variability, this study provides insights to inform the future management of regional water resources. The importance of estimating future regional flood risks from the behavior of multi-model ensembles is highlighted.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581823001490Boreal hydrologyClimate changeSpring floodCMIP5Downscaled Global Climate Models |
| spellingShingle | A.F. Nolin M.P. Girardin J.F. Adamowski R. Barzegar M.-A. Boucher J.C. Tardif Y. Bergeron Observed and projected trends in spring flood discharges for the Upper Harricana River, eastern boreal Canada Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Boreal hydrology Climate change Spring flood CMIP5 Downscaled Global Climate Models |
| title | Observed and projected trends in spring flood discharges for the Upper Harricana River, eastern boreal Canada |
| title_full | Observed and projected trends in spring flood discharges for the Upper Harricana River, eastern boreal Canada |
| title_fullStr | Observed and projected trends in spring flood discharges for the Upper Harricana River, eastern boreal Canada |
| title_full_unstemmed | Observed and projected trends in spring flood discharges for the Upper Harricana River, eastern boreal Canada |
| title_short | Observed and projected trends in spring flood discharges for the Upper Harricana River, eastern boreal Canada |
| title_sort | observed and projected trends in spring flood discharges for the upper harricana river eastern boreal canada |
| topic | Boreal hydrology Climate change Spring flood CMIP5 Downscaled Global Climate Models |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581823001490 |
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