Development and external validation of prognostic scoring models for portal vein thrombosis: a multicenter retrospective study
Abstract Background Portal vein thrombosis is a common complication of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma; however, few studies have reported its long-term clinical prognosis. This study aimed to establish and validate easy-to-use nomograms for predicting gastrointestinal bleeding, portal...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Thrombosis Journal |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12959-023-00455-w |
| _version_ | 1811175782542737408 |
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| author | Xuan Zhong Shan Li Jiali Hu Jinlai Lu Wei Wang Miao Hu Qinjuan Sun Shuo Zhang Xiaoqing Yang Changqing Yang Lan Zhong |
| author_facet | Xuan Zhong Shan Li Jiali Hu Jinlai Lu Wei Wang Miao Hu Qinjuan Sun Shuo Zhang Xiaoqing Yang Changqing Yang Lan Zhong |
| author_sort | Xuan Zhong |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Portal vein thrombosis is a common complication of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma; however, few studies have reported its long-term clinical prognosis. This study aimed to establish and validate easy-to-use nomograms for predicting gastrointestinal bleeding, portal vein thrombosis resolution, and mortality of patients with portal vein thrombosis. Methods This multicenter retrospective cohort study included 425 patients with portal vein thrombosis who were divided into training (n = 334) and validation (n = 91) sets. Prediction models were developed using multivariate Cox regression analysis and evaluated using the consistency index and calibration plots. Results Predictors of gastrointestinal bleeding included a history of gastrointestinal bleeding, superior mesenteric vein thrombosis, red color sign observed during endoscopy, and hepatic encephalopathy. Meanwhile, predictors of resolution of portal vein thrombosis included a history of abdominal infection, C-reactive protein and hemoglobin levels, and intake of thrombolytics. Predictors of death included abdominal infection, abdominal surgery, aspartate aminotransferase level, hepatic encephalopathy, and ascites. All models had good discriminatory power and consistency. Anticoagulation therapy significantly increased the probability of thrombotic resolution without increasing the risk of bleeding or death. Conclusions We successfully developed and validated three prediction models that can aid in the early evaluation and treatment of portal vein thrombosis. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T19:41:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ee067a93a8614afd8285d415cafc1d79 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1477-9560 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T19:41:29Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Thrombosis Journal |
| spelling | doaj.art-ee067a93a8614afd8285d415cafc1d792023-01-29T12:19:44ZengBMCThrombosis Journal1477-95602023-01-0121111610.1186/s12959-023-00455-wDevelopment and external validation of prognostic scoring models for portal vein thrombosis: a multicenter retrospective studyXuan Zhong0Shan Li1Jiali Hu2Jinlai Lu3Wei Wang4Miao Hu5Qinjuan Sun6Shuo Zhang7Xiaoqing Yang8Changqing Yang9Lan Zhong10Department of Gastroenterology, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University School of MedicineDepartment of Gastroenterology, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University School of MedicineDepartment of Gastroenterology, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University School of MedicineDepartment of Gastroenterology, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University School of MedicineDepartment of Gastroenterology, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University School of MedicineDepartment of Gastroenterology, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University School of MedicineDepartment of Gastroenterology, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University School of MedicineDepartment of Gastroenterology, Shanghai Tongji Hospital, Tongji University School of MedicineDepartment of Gastroenterology, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University School of MedicineDepartment of Gastroenterology, Shanghai Tongji Hospital, Tongji University School of MedicineDepartment of Gastroenterology, Shanghai East Hospital, Tongji University School of MedicineAbstract Background Portal vein thrombosis is a common complication of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma; however, few studies have reported its long-term clinical prognosis. This study aimed to establish and validate easy-to-use nomograms for predicting gastrointestinal bleeding, portal vein thrombosis resolution, and mortality of patients with portal vein thrombosis. Methods This multicenter retrospective cohort study included 425 patients with portal vein thrombosis who were divided into training (n = 334) and validation (n = 91) sets. Prediction models were developed using multivariate Cox regression analysis and evaluated using the consistency index and calibration plots. Results Predictors of gastrointestinal bleeding included a history of gastrointestinal bleeding, superior mesenteric vein thrombosis, red color sign observed during endoscopy, and hepatic encephalopathy. Meanwhile, predictors of resolution of portal vein thrombosis included a history of abdominal infection, C-reactive protein and hemoglobin levels, and intake of thrombolytics. Predictors of death included abdominal infection, abdominal surgery, aspartate aminotransferase level, hepatic encephalopathy, and ascites. All models had good discriminatory power and consistency. Anticoagulation therapy significantly increased the probability of thrombotic resolution without increasing the risk of bleeding or death. Conclusions We successfully developed and validated three prediction models that can aid in the early evaluation and treatment of portal vein thrombosis.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12959-023-00455-wAnticoagulationCox regressionNomogramPrediction modelPortal vein thrombosis |
| spellingShingle | Xuan Zhong Shan Li Jiali Hu Jinlai Lu Wei Wang Miao Hu Qinjuan Sun Shuo Zhang Xiaoqing Yang Changqing Yang Lan Zhong Development and external validation of prognostic scoring models for portal vein thrombosis: a multicenter retrospective study Thrombosis Journal Anticoagulation Cox regression Nomogram Prediction model Portal vein thrombosis |
| title | Development and external validation of prognostic scoring models for portal vein thrombosis: a multicenter retrospective study |
| title_full | Development and external validation of prognostic scoring models for portal vein thrombosis: a multicenter retrospective study |
| title_fullStr | Development and external validation of prognostic scoring models for portal vein thrombosis: a multicenter retrospective study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and external validation of prognostic scoring models for portal vein thrombosis: a multicenter retrospective study |
| title_short | Development and external validation of prognostic scoring models for portal vein thrombosis: a multicenter retrospective study |
| title_sort | development and external validation of prognostic scoring models for portal vein thrombosis a multicenter retrospective study |
| topic | Anticoagulation Cox regression Nomogram Prediction model Portal vein thrombosis |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12959-023-00455-w |
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