Evaluation of Global Fire Weather Database reanalysis and short-term forecast products
<p>Daily Fire Weather Index (FWI) System components calculated from the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), are compared to FWI calculations from a global network of weather stations over 2004–2018, and short-term, experimental (8&thin...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2020-04-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/20/1123/2020/nhess-20-1123-2020.pdf |
| Summary: | <p>Daily Fire Weather Index (FWI) System components calculated from the NASA
Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2
(MERRA-2), are compared to FWI calculations from a global network of weather
stations over 2004–2018, and short-term, experimental (8 d) daily FWI
forecasts are evaluated for their skill across the Terrestrial Ecoregions of the World for 2018. FWI components from MERRA-2 were, in general, biased low
compared to station data, but this reflects a mix of coherent low and high
biases of different magnitudes. Biases in different MERRA-2 FWI components
were related to different biases in weather input variables for different
regions, but temperature and relative humidity biases were the most
important overall. FWI forecasts had high skill for 1–2 d lead times for
most of the world. For longer lead times, forecast skill decreased most
quickly at high latitudes and was most closely related to decreasing skill
of relative humidity forecasts. These results provide a baseline for the
evaluation and use of fire weather products calculated from global analysis
and forecast fields.</p> |
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| ISSN: | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |