Comparison and Analysis of Macro Energy Scenarios in China and a Decomposition-Based Approach to Quantifying the Impacts of Economic and Social Development
China has been experiencing a rapid urbanization and industrialization progress with continuous increase in primary energy consumption. Meanwhile, China’s changing economic and society structure also introduces huge uncertainty to its future energy demand. Many energy research institutes periodicall...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2013-07-01
|
| Series: | Energies |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/6/7/3444 |
| _version_ | 1798037948510240768 |
|---|---|
| author | Zheng Li Linwei Ma Pei Liu Lingying Pan Zheng Guo |
| author_facet | Zheng Li Linwei Ma Pei Liu Lingying Pan Zheng Guo |
| author_sort | Zheng Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | China has been experiencing a rapid urbanization and industrialization progress with continuous increase in primary energy consumption. Meanwhile, China’s changing economic and society structure also introduces huge uncertainty to its future energy demand. Many energy research institutes periodically publish projections of macro energy scenarios of China up to 2030 and 2050, but these projections differ from one another in terms of total amount of energy consumption and energy flows amongst sectors. In this work, we firstly illustrate major differences between existing scenarios based on a literature survey. We then compare and analyze the different projection methods, key policy assumptions, and other boundary conditions adopted in obtaining these scenarios. Then an index decomposition method is introduced with the purpose of decoupling the impacts of economic growth and population growth on the projection to energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Our results illustrate that projections from domestic research institutes tend to be more optimistic regarding clean and sustainable utilization of coal in the future. Also, projections on energy consumption in China are exclusively linearly dependent on projections of economic and population growth in most scenarios, whilst in some other scenarios the impacts of oil price, international trade, and other drivers are also rather significant. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T21:33:32Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-eea23f072da94af5882ef43e1204512d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1996-1073 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T21:33:32Z |
| publishDate | 2013-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energies |
| spelling | doaj.art-eea23f072da94af5882ef43e1204512d2022-12-22T04:01:50ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732013-07-01673444346510.3390/en6073444Comparison and Analysis of Macro Energy Scenarios in China and a Decomposition-Based Approach to Quantifying the Impacts of Economic and Social DevelopmentZheng LiLinwei MaPei LiuLingying PanZheng GuoChina has been experiencing a rapid urbanization and industrialization progress with continuous increase in primary energy consumption. Meanwhile, China’s changing economic and society structure also introduces huge uncertainty to its future energy demand. Many energy research institutes periodically publish projections of macro energy scenarios of China up to 2030 and 2050, but these projections differ from one another in terms of total amount of energy consumption and energy flows amongst sectors. In this work, we firstly illustrate major differences between existing scenarios based on a literature survey. We then compare and analyze the different projection methods, key policy assumptions, and other boundary conditions adopted in obtaining these scenarios. Then an index decomposition method is introduced with the purpose of decoupling the impacts of economic growth and population growth on the projection to energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Our results illustrate that projections from domestic research institutes tend to be more optimistic regarding clean and sustainable utilization of coal in the future. Also, projections on energy consumption in China are exclusively linearly dependent on projections of economic and population growth in most scenarios, whilst in some other scenarios the impacts of oil price, international trade, and other drivers are also rather significant.http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/6/7/3444macro energy scenarioChinaindex decomposition |
| spellingShingle | Zheng Li Linwei Ma Pei Liu Lingying Pan Zheng Guo Comparison and Analysis of Macro Energy Scenarios in China and a Decomposition-Based Approach to Quantifying the Impacts of Economic and Social Development Energies macro energy scenario China index decomposition |
| title | Comparison and Analysis of Macro Energy Scenarios in China and a Decomposition-Based Approach to Quantifying the Impacts of Economic and Social Development |
| title_full | Comparison and Analysis of Macro Energy Scenarios in China and a Decomposition-Based Approach to Quantifying the Impacts of Economic and Social Development |
| title_fullStr | Comparison and Analysis of Macro Energy Scenarios in China and a Decomposition-Based Approach to Quantifying the Impacts of Economic and Social Development |
| title_full_unstemmed | Comparison and Analysis of Macro Energy Scenarios in China and a Decomposition-Based Approach to Quantifying the Impacts of Economic and Social Development |
| title_short | Comparison and Analysis of Macro Energy Scenarios in China and a Decomposition-Based Approach to Quantifying the Impacts of Economic and Social Development |
| title_sort | comparison and analysis of macro energy scenarios in china and a decomposition based approach to quantifying the impacts of economic and social development |
| topic | macro energy scenario China index decomposition |
| url | http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/6/7/3444 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT zhengli comparisonandanalysisofmacroenergyscenariosinchinaandadecompositionbasedapproachtoquantifyingtheimpactsofeconomicandsocialdevelopment AT linweima comparisonandanalysisofmacroenergyscenariosinchinaandadecompositionbasedapproachtoquantifyingtheimpactsofeconomicandsocialdevelopment AT peiliu comparisonandanalysisofmacroenergyscenariosinchinaandadecompositionbasedapproachtoquantifyingtheimpactsofeconomicandsocialdevelopment AT lingyingpan comparisonandanalysisofmacroenergyscenariosinchinaandadecompositionbasedapproachtoquantifyingtheimpactsofeconomicandsocialdevelopment AT zhengguo comparisonandanalysisofmacroenergyscenariosinchinaandadecompositionbasedapproachtoquantifyingtheimpactsofeconomicandsocialdevelopment |