Appraisal of Land Cover and Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources: A Case Study of Mohmand Dam Catchment, Pakistan
Land cover change (LCC) and climate change (CC) impacts on streamflow in high elevated catchments are a great challenge to sustainable management and the development of water resources. This study evaluates the possible future impacts of both land cover and climate change on the streamflows in the M...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-03-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/7/1313 |
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| author | Muhammad Umer Masood Noor Muhammad Khan Saif Haider Muhammad Naveed Anjum Xi Chen Aminjon Gulakhmadov Mudassar Iqbal Zeshan Ali Tie Liu |
| author_facet | Muhammad Umer Masood Noor Muhammad Khan Saif Haider Muhammad Naveed Anjum Xi Chen Aminjon Gulakhmadov Mudassar Iqbal Zeshan Ali Tie Liu |
| author_sort | Muhammad Umer Masood |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Land cover change (LCC) and climate change (CC) impacts on streamflow in high elevated catchments are a great challenge to sustainable management and the development of water resources. This study evaluates the possible future impacts of both land cover and climate change on the streamflows in the Mohmand Dam catchment, Pakistan, by utilizing the semi-distributed hydrological model known as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), along with the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset of different global climate models (GCMs). The downscaling of the precipitation and temperature data was performed by the CMhyd software. The downscaled precipitation and temperature projections from the best performing GCM, out of four GCMs, under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2 and SSP5) and future land cover conditions were forced in a calibrated hydrological model (SWAT model). Compared to the baseline period (1990–2015), the outputs from the selected GCM indicated an increase in the average monthly precipitation, and the maximum and minimum temperature in the study area under both the SSP2 and SSP5 scenarios, by the end of the 21st century. It is expected that the increase in precipitation for the period 2016–2100 is 10.5% and 11.4% under the SSP2 and SSP5 scenarios, respectively. Simulated results from the SWAT model showed significant impacts from the projected climate and land cover changes on Mohmand Dam flows that include: (a) an increase in the overall mean annual flow ranging from 13.7% to 34.8%, whereas the mean monthly flows of June, July and August decreased, and (b) a shift in the peak flows in the Mohmand catchment from July to June. It is concluded that the projected climate changes can substantially influence the seasonality of flows at the Mohmand Dam site. Climate and land cover change impacts are significant, so project planners and managers must include CC and LCC impacts in the proposed operational strategy. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T05:22:22Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-eeb6c2b6206f44778e3e9bf939f229f6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T05:22:22Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-eeb6c2b6206f44778e3e9bf939f229f62023-11-17T17:49:41ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412023-03-01157131310.3390/w15071313Appraisal of Land Cover and Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources: A Case Study of Mohmand Dam Catchment, PakistanMuhammad Umer Masood0Noor Muhammad Khan1Saif Haider2Muhammad Naveed Anjum3Xi Chen4Aminjon Gulakhmadov5Mudassar Iqbal6Zeshan Ali7Tie Liu8Centre of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore 54890, PakistanDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore 54890, PakistanCentre of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore 54890, PakistanDepartment of Land and Water Conservation Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, PMAS-Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi 46000, PakistanResearch Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, ChinaResearch Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, ChinaCentre of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore 54890, PakistanCentre of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore 54890, PakistanState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, ChinaLand cover change (LCC) and climate change (CC) impacts on streamflow in high elevated catchments are a great challenge to sustainable management and the development of water resources. This study evaluates the possible future impacts of both land cover and climate change on the streamflows in the Mohmand Dam catchment, Pakistan, by utilizing the semi-distributed hydrological model known as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), along with the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset of different global climate models (GCMs). The downscaling of the precipitation and temperature data was performed by the CMhyd software. The downscaled precipitation and temperature projections from the best performing GCM, out of four GCMs, under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2 and SSP5) and future land cover conditions were forced in a calibrated hydrological model (SWAT model). Compared to the baseline period (1990–2015), the outputs from the selected GCM indicated an increase in the average monthly precipitation, and the maximum and minimum temperature in the study area under both the SSP2 and SSP5 scenarios, by the end of the 21st century. It is expected that the increase in precipitation for the period 2016–2100 is 10.5% and 11.4% under the SSP2 and SSP5 scenarios, respectively. Simulated results from the SWAT model showed significant impacts from the projected climate and land cover changes on Mohmand Dam flows that include: (a) an increase in the overall mean annual flow ranging from 13.7% to 34.8%, whereas the mean monthly flows of June, July and August decreased, and (b) a shift in the peak flows in the Mohmand catchment from July to June. It is concluded that the projected climate changes can substantially influence the seasonality of flows at the Mohmand Dam site. Climate and land cover change impacts are significant, so project planners and managers must include CC and LCC impacts in the proposed operational strategy.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/7/1313climate changeland use classificationstatistical downscalingland cover changeMohmand DamGCMs |
| spellingShingle | Muhammad Umer Masood Noor Muhammad Khan Saif Haider Muhammad Naveed Anjum Xi Chen Aminjon Gulakhmadov Mudassar Iqbal Zeshan Ali Tie Liu Appraisal of Land Cover and Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources: A Case Study of Mohmand Dam Catchment, Pakistan Water climate change land use classification statistical downscaling land cover change Mohmand Dam GCMs |
| title | Appraisal of Land Cover and Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources: A Case Study of Mohmand Dam Catchment, Pakistan |
| title_full | Appraisal of Land Cover and Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources: A Case Study of Mohmand Dam Catchment, Pakistan |
| title_fullStr | Appraisal of Land Cover and Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources: A Case Study of Mohmand Dam Catchment, Pakistan |
| title_full_unstemmed | Appraisal of Land Cover and Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources: A Case Study of Mohmand Dam Catchment, Pakistan |
| title_short | Appraisal of Land Cover and Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources: A Case Study of Mohmand Dam Catchment, Pakistan |
| title_sort | appraisal of land cover and climate change impacts on water resources a case study of mohmand dam catchment pakistan |
| topic | climate change land use classification statistical downscaling land cover change Mohmand Dam GCMs |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/7/1313 |
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