Risk factors for human infection with West Nile Virus in Connecticut: a multi-year analysis
<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The optimal method for early prediction of human West Nile virus (WNV) infection risk remains controversial. We analyzed the predictive utility of risk factor data for human WNV over a six-year period in Connecticut.</p> <p&...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
BMC
2009-11-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Health Geographics |
| Online Access: | http://www.ij-healthgeographics.com/content/8/1/67 |
| _version_ | 1811284699090255872 |
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| author | Andreadis Theodore Diuk-Wasser Maria Slade Martin D Galusha Deron Lee Vivian Liu Ann Scotch Matthew Rabinowitz Peter M |
| author_facet | Andreadis Theodore Diuk-Wasser Maria Slade Martin D Galusha Deron Lee Vivian Liu Ann Scotch Matthew Rabinowitz Peter M |
| author_sort | Andreadis Theodore |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The optimal method for early prediction of human West Nile virus (WNV) infection risk remains controversial. We analyzed the predictive utility of risk factor data for human WNV over a six-year period in Connecticut.</p> <p>Results and Discussion</p> <p>Using only environmental variables or animal sentinel data was less predictive than a model that considered all variables. In the final parsimonious model, population density, growing degree-days, temperature, WNV positive mosquitoes, dead birds and WNV positive birds were significant predictors of human infection risk, with an ROC value of 0.75.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A real-time model using climate, land use, and animal surveillance data to predict WNV risk appears feasible. The dynamic patterns of WNV infection suggest a need to periodically refine such prediction systems.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using multiple logistic regression, the 30-day risk of human WNV infection by town was modeled using environmental variables as well as mosquito and wild bird surveillance.</p> |
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-eebbf48528a3452bb6f5c7d8f373ae9c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1476-072X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T02:32:33Z |
| publishDate | 2009-11-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Health Geographics |
| spelling | doaj.art-eebbf48528a3452bb6f5c7d8f373ae9c2022-12-22T03:06:30ZengBMCInternational Journal of Health Geographics1476-072X2009-11-01816710.1186/1476-072X-8-67Risk factors for human infection with West Nile Virus in Connecticut: a multi-year analysisAndreadis TheodoreDiuk-Wasser MariaSlade Martin DGalusha DeronLee VivianLiu AnnScotch MatthewRabinowitz Peter M<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The optimal method for early prediction of human West Nile virus (WNV) infection risk remains controversial. We analyzed the predictive utility of risk factor data for human WNV over a six-year period in Connecticut.</p> <p>Results and Discussion</p> <p>Using only environmental variables or animal sentinel data was less predictive than a model that considered all variables. In the final parsimonious model, population density, growing degree-days, temperature, WNV positive mosquitoes, dead birds and WNV positive birds were significant predictors of human infection risk, with an ROC value of 0.75.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A real-time model using climate, land use, and animal surveillance data to predict WNV risk appears feasible. The dynamic patterns of WNV infection suggest a need to periodically refine such prediction systems.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using multiple logistic regression, the 30-day risk of human WNV infection by town was modeled using environmental variables as well as mosquito and wild bird surveillance.</p>http://www.ij-healthgeographics.com/content/8/1/67 |
| spellingShingle | Andreadis Theodore Diuk-Wasser Maria Slade Martin D Galusha Deron Lee Vivian Liu Ann Scotch Matthew Rabinowitz Peter M Risk factors for human infection with West Nile Virus in Connecticut: a multi-year analysis International Journal of Health Geographics |
| title | Risk factors for human infection with West Nile Virus in Connecticut: a multi-year analysis |
| title_full | Risk factors for human infection with West Nile Virus in Connecticut: a multi-year analysis |
| title_fullStr | Risk factors for human infection with West Nile Virus in Connecticut: a multi-year analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Risk factors for human infection with West Nile Virus in Connecticut: a multi-year analysis |
| title_short | Risk factors for human infection with West Nile Virus in Connecticut: a multi-year analysis |
| title_sort | risk factors for human infection with west nile virus in connecticut a multi year analysis |
| url | http://www.ij-healthgeographics.com/content/8/1/67 |
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