Projection of extreme precipitation induced by Arctic amplification over the Northern Hemisphere
Numerous attempts have been made to understand the connection between extreme weather and Arctic amplification (AA), and it is still disputed whether the mechanism is the elongation and deceleration of planetary-scale waves. In this study, we provide further evidence that the Arctic’s rapid warming...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2021-01-01
|
| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0acc |
| _version_ | 1797747628487737344 |
|---|---|
| author | Jun Liu Dongyou Wu Xuanye Xu Mingxia Ji Quanliang Chen Xin Wang |
| author_facet | Jun Liu Dongyou Wu Xuanye Xu Mingxia Ji Quanliang Chen Xin Wang |
| author_sort | Jun Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Numerous attempts have been made to understand the connection between extreme weather and Arctic amplification (AA), and it is still disputed whether the mechanism is the elongation and deceleration of planetary-scale waves. In this study, we provide further evidence that the Arctic’s rapid warming is influencing extreme precipitation in the Northern Hermisphere based on observation and model outputs, and elucidate the underlying dynamic mechanisms. We find that AA has a significant positive correlation with extreme precipitation, both in the past (1901–2018) and in the future (by 2100). Moreover, observations reveal that, with the enhancement of AA since the mid-1980s, the planetary-scale wave amplitude has increased significantly at 0.66°/decade. This is associated with a negative Northern Hemisphere annular mode and an increased duration of weather patterns, resulting in more extreme precipitation events. Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP585 scenario, extreme precipitation increases by 8.7% along with wave amplitude increase of 7.9° by 2100. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:53:19Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-eeefecc9140d47deac898f957c9745e9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:53:19Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-eeefecc9140d47deac898f957c9745e92023-08-09T15:02:39ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262021-01-0116707401210.1088/1748-9326/ac0accProjection of extreme precipitation induced by Arctic amplification over the Northern HemisphereJun Liu0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1019-3865Dongyou Wu1Xuanye Xu2Mingxia Ji3Quanliang Chen4Xin Wang5Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University , Lanzhou, People’s Republic of China; School of Earth System Science, Tianjin University , Tianjin, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University , Lanzhou, People’s Republic of ChinaCollege of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology , Chengdu, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University , Lanzhou, People’s Republic of ChinaCollege of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology , Chengdu, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University , Lanzhou, People’s Republic of China; School of Earth System Science, Tianjin University , Tianjin, People’s Republic of ChinaNumerous attempts have been made to understand the connection between extreme weather and Arctic amplification (AA), and it is still disputed whether the mechanism is the elongation and deceleration of planetary-scale waves. In this study, we provide further evidence that the Arctic’s rapid warming is influencing extreme precipitation in the Northern Hermisphere based on observation and model outputs, and elucidate the underlying dynamic mechanisms. We find that AA has a significant positive correlation with extreme precipitation, both in the past (1901–2018) and in the future (by 2100). Moreover, observations reveal that, with the enhancement of AA since the mid-1980s, the planetary-scale wave amplitude has increased significantly at 0.66°/decade. This is associated with a negative Northern Hemisphere annular mode and an increased duration of weather patterns, resulting in more extreme precipitation events. Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP585 scenario, extreme precipitation increases by 8.7% along with wave amplitude increase of 7.9° by 2100.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0accArctic amplificationextreme weatherdynamic mechanismsCMIP6 |
| spellingShingle | Jun Liu Dongyou Wu Xuanye Xu Mingxia Ji Quanliang Chen Xin Wang Projection of extreme precipitation induced by Arctic amplification over the Northern Hemisphere Environmental Research Letters Arctic amplification extreme weather dynamic mechanisms CMIP6 |
| title | Projection of extreme precipitation induced by Arctic amplification over the Northern Hemisphere |
| title_full | Projection of extreme precipitation induced by Arctic amplification over the Northern Hemisphere |
| title_fullStr | Projection of extreme precipitation induced by Arctic amplification over the Northern Hemisphere |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projection of extreme precipitation induced by Arctic amplification over the Northern Hemisphere |
| title_short | Projection of extreme precipitation induced by Arctic amplification over the Northern Hemisphere |
| title_sort | projection of extreme precipitation induced by arctic amplification over the northern hemisphere |
| topic | Arctic amplification extreme weather dynamic mechanisms CMIP6 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0acc |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT junliu projectionofextremeprecipitationinducedbyarcticamplificationoverthenorthernhemisphere AT dongyouwu projectionofextremeprecipitationinducedbyarcticamplificationoverthenorthernhemisphere AT xuanyexu projectionofextremeprecipitationinducedbyarcticamplificationoverthenorthernhemisphere AT mingxiaji projectionofextremeprecipitationinducedbyarcticamplificationoverthenorthernhemisphere AT quanliangchen projectionofextremeprecipitationinducedbyarcticamplificationoverthenorthernhemisphere AT xinwang projectionofextremeprecipitationinducedbyarcticamplificationoverthenorthernhemisphere |