| Summary: | Study region: Lower Campaspe, North Central Victoria, Australia Study focus: This paper presents a component-based integrated environmental model developed through participatory processes to explore sustainable water management options. Possible futures with improved farm profitability and ecological outcomes relative to modelled baselines were identified through exploratory modelling. The integrated model and the results produced are intended to raise awareness and facilitate discussion with and amongst stakeholders. New hydrological insights: The modelling illustrates that improved farm level knowledge and management with regard to crop water requirements, soil water capacity, and irrigations are the most significant factors towards achieving outcomes that are robust to a range of climate and water policy futures. Assuming farmer management with regard to these factors are at their most optimal, increasing irrigation efficiency alone did not lead to improved farm profitability and ecological outcomes under drier climate conditions. Likelihood of achieving robust outcomes were further improved through the conjunctive use of surface and groundwater, with increased consideration of groundwater use a key factor. Further discussion on the viability and impact of increased groundwater use and conjunctive use policies should be further considered. Keywords: Integrated modelling, Participatory modelling, Exploratory modelling, Scenario discovery, Conjunctive water use
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