Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100
<p>Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system, and past and future changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. Here, we evaluate long-term changes in these species from the pre-industrial period (1850) to the end of the 21st century i...
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Copernicus Publications
2021-03-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
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| author | J. Keeble J. Keeble B. Hassler A. Banerjee A. Banerjee R. Checa-Garcia G. Chiodo G. Chiodo S. Davis V. Eyring V. Eyring P. T. Griffiths P. T. Griffiths O. Morgenstern P. Nowack P. Nowack G. Zeng J. Zhang G. Bodeker G. Bodeker S. Burrows P. Cameron-Smith D. Cugnet C. Danek M. Deushi L. W. Horowitz A. Kubin L. Li G. Lohmann M. Michou M. J. Mills P. Nabat D. Olivié S. Park Ø. Seland J. Stoll K.-H. Wieners T. Wu |
| author_facet | J. Keeble J. Keeble B. Hassler A. Banerjee A. Banerjee R. Checa-Garcia G. Chiodo G. Chiodo S. Davis V. Eyring V. Eyring P. T. Griffiths P. T. Griffiths O. Morgenstern P. Nowack P. Nowack G. Zeng J. Zhang G. Bodeker G. Bodeker S. Burrows P. Cameron-Smith D. Cugnet C. Danek M. Deushi L. W. Horowitz A. Kubin L. Li G. Lohmann M. Michou M. J. Mills P. Nabat D. Olivié S. Park Ø. Seland J. Stoll K.-H. Wieners T. Wu |
| author_sort | J. Keeble |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system, and past and future changes to both have important impacts on global and
regional climate. Here, we evaluate long-term changes in these species from the pre-industrial period (1850) to the end of the 21st century
in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6)
models under a range of future emissions scenarios. There is good agreement between the CMIP multi-model mean and observations for total column
ozone (TCO), although there is substantial variation between the individual CMIP6 models. For the CMIP6 multi-model mean, global mean TCO has
increased from <span class="inline-formula">∼</span> 300 <span class="inline-formula">DU</span> in 1850 to <span class="inline-formula">∼</span> 305 <span class="inline-formula">DU</span> in 1960, before rapidly declining in the 1970s and 1980s following the
use and emission of halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). TCO is projected to return to 1960s values by the middle of the 21st century
under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios TCO values are projected to
be <span class="inline-formula">∼</span> 10 <span class="inline-formula">DU</span> higher than the 1960s values by 2100. However, under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-1.6 scenarios, TCO is not projected to
return to the 1960s values despite reductions in halogenated ODSs due to decreases in tropospheric ozone mixing ratios. This global pattern is
similar to regional patterns, except in the tropics where TCO under most scenarios is not projected to return to 1960s values, either through
reductions in tropospheric ozone under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, or through reductions in lower stratospheric ozone resulting from an acceleration of
the Brewer–Dobson circulation under other Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). In contrast to TCO, there is poorer agreement between the
CMIP6 multi-model mean and observed lower
stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios, with the CMIP6 multi-model mean underestimating observed water vapour mixing ratios by
<span class="inline-formula">∼</span> 0.5 <span class="inline-formula">ppmv</span> at 70 <span class="inline-formula">hPa</span>. CMIP6 multi-model mean stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios in the tropical lower stratosphere have
increased by <span class="inline-formula">∼</span> 0.5 <span class="inline-formula">ppmv</span> from the pre-industrial to the present-day period and are projected to increase further by the end of the 21st
century. The largest increases (<span class="inline-formula">∼</span> 2 <span class="inline-formula">ppmv</span>) are simulated under the future scenarios with the highest assumed forcing pathway
(e.g. SSP5-8.5). Tropical lower stratospheric water vapour, and to a lesser extent TCO, shows large variations following explosive volcanic eruptions.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-20T13:09:22Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ef635a5c9b2b4b80bc7f3be573812405 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1680-7316 1680-7324 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-20T13:09:22Z |
| publishDate | 2021-03-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-ef635a5c9b2b4b80bc7f3be5738124052022-12-21T19:39:43ZengCopernicus PublicationsAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics1680-73161680-73242021-03-01215015506110.5194/acp-21-5015-2021Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100J. Keeble0J. Keeble1B. Hassler2A. Banerjee3A. Banerjee4R. Checa-Garcia5G. Chiodo6G. Chiodo7S. Davis8V. Eyring9V. Eyring10P. T. Griffiths11P. T. Griffiths12O. Morgenstern13P. Nowack14P. Nowack15G. Zeng16J. Zhang17G. Bodeker18G. Bodeker19S. Burrows20P. Cameron-Smith21D. Cugnet22C. Danek23M. Deushi24L. W. Horowitz25A. Kubin26L. Li27G. Lohmann28M. Michou29M. J. Mills30P. Nabat31D. Olivié32S. Park33Ø. Seland34J. Stoll35K.-H. Wieners36T. Wu37Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UKNational Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UKDeutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, GermanyNOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Chemical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, USACooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USALaboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceDepartment of Environmental Systems Science, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, SwitzerlandDepartment of Applied Physics and Applied Math, Columbia University, New York, NY, USANOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Chemical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, USADeutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, GermanyUniversity of Bremen, Institute of Environmental Physics (IUP), Bremen, GermanyDepartment of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UKNational Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UKNational Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Wellington, New ZealandGrantham Institute, Department of Physics and the Data Science Institute, Imperial College London, London, UKClimatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UKNational Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Wellington, New ZealandKey Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, ChinaBodeker Scientific, 42 Russell Street, Alexandra, New ZealandSchool of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New ZealandAtmospheric Sciences & Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USAAtmosphere, Earth and Energy Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, USALaboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université/CNRS / École Normale Supérieure – PSL Research University/École Polytechnique – IPP, Paris, FranceAlfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Sciences, Bremerhaven, GermanyMeteorological Research Institute (MRI), Tsukuba, JapanGFDL/NOAA, Princeton, NJ, USALeibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research, Leipzig, GermanyState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaAlfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Sciences, Bremerhaven, GermanyCNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, FranceAtmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USACNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, FranceNorwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, NorwaySeoul National University, Seoul, South KoreaNorwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, NorwayLeibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research, Leipzig, GermanyMax Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, GermanyBeijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China<p>Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system, and past and future changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. Here, we evaluate long-term changes in these species from the pre-industrial period (1850) to the end of the 21st century in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models under a range of future emissions scenarios. There is good agreement between the CMIP multi-model mean and observations for total column ozone (TCO), although there is substantial variation between the individual CMIP6 models. For the CMIP6 multi-model mean, global mean TCO has increased from <span class="inline-formula">∼</span> 300 <span class="inline-formula">DU</span> in 1850 to <span class="inline-formula">∼</span> 305 <span class="inline-formula">DU</span> in 1960, before rapidly declining in the 1970s and 1980s following the use and emission of halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). TCO is projected to return to 1960s values by the middle of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios TCO values are projected to be <span class="inline-formula">∼</span> 10 <span class="inline-formula">DU</span> higher than the 1960s values by 2100. However, under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-1.6 scenarios, TCO is not projected to return to the 1960s values despite reductions in halogenated ODSs due to decreases in tropospheric ozone mixing ratios. This global pattern is similar to regional patterns, except in the tropics where TCO under most scenarios is not projected to return to 1960s values, either through reductions in tropospheric ozone under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, or through reductions in lower stratospheric ozone resulting from an acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation under other Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). In contrast to TCO, there is poorer agreement between the CMIP6 multi-model mean and observed lower stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios, with the CMIP6 multi-model mean underestimating observed water vapour mixing ratios by <span class="inline-formula">∼</span> 0.5 <span class="inline-formula">ppmv</span> at 70 <span class="inline-formula">hPa</span>. CMIP6 multi-model mean stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios in the tropical lower stratosphere have increased by <span class="inline-formula">∼</span> 0.5 <span class="inline-formula">ppmv</span> from the pre-industrial to the present-day period and are projected to increase further by the end of the 21st century. The largest increases (<span class="inline-formula">∼</span> 2 <span class="inline-formula">ppmv</span>) are simulated under the future scenarios with the highest assumed forcing pathway (e.g. SSP5-8.5). Tropical lower stratospheric water vapour, and to a lesser extent TCO, shows large variations following explosive volcanic eruptions.</p>https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/21/5015/2021/acp-21-5015-2021.pdf |
| spellingShingle | J. Keeble J. Keeble B. Hassler A. Banerjee A. Banerjee R. Checa-Garcia G. Chiodo G. Chiodo S. Davis V. Eyring V. Eyring P. T. Griffiths P. T. Griffiths O. Morgenstern P. Nowack P. Nowack G. Zeng J. Zhang G. Bodeker G. Bodeker S. Burrows P. Cameron-Smith D. Cugnet C. Danek M. Deushi L. W. Horowitz A. Kubin L. Li G. Lohmann M. Michou M. J. Mills P. Nabat D. Olivié S. Park Ø. Seland J. Stoll K.-H. Wieners T. Wu Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| title | Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100 |
| title_full | Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100 |
| title_fullStr | Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100 |
| title_short | Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100 |
| title_sort | evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in cmip6 models from 1850 to 2100 |
| url | https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/21/5015/2021/acp-21-5015-2021.pdf |
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