Spatial dynamics of malaria transmission.
The Ross-Macdonald model has exerted enormous influence over the study of malaria transmission dynamics and control, but it lacked features to describe parasite dispersal, travel, and other important aspects of heterogeneous transmission. Here, we present a patch-based differential equation modeling...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2023-06-01
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| Series: | PLoS Computational Biology |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010684 |
| _version_ | 1797788358151241728 |
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| author | Sean L Wu John M Henry Daniel T Citron Doreen Mbabazi Ssebuliba Juliet Nakakawa Nsumba Héctor M Sánchez C Oliver J Brady Carlos A Guerra Guillermo A García Austin R Carter Heather M Ferguson Bakare Emmanuel Afolabi Simon I Hay Robert C Reiner Samson Kiware David L Smith |
| author_facet | Sean L Wu John M Henry Daniel T Citron Doreen Mbabazi Ssebuliba Juliet Nakakawa Nsumba Héctor M Sánchez C Oliver J Brady Carlos A Guerra Guillermo A García Austin R Carter Heather M Ferguson Bakare Emmanuel Afolabi Simon I Hay Robert C Reiner Samson Kiware David L Smith |
| author_sort | Sean L Wu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Ross-Macdonald model has exerted enormous influence over the study of malaria transmission dynamics and control, but it lacked features to describe parasite dispersal, travel, and other important aspects of heterogeneous transmission. Here, we present a patch-based differential equation modeling framework that extends the Ross-Macdonald model with sufficient skill and complexity to support planning, monitoring and evaluation for Plasmodium falciparum malaria control. We designed a generic interface for building structured, spatial models of malaria transmission based on a new algorithm for mosquito blood feeding. We developed new algorithms to simulate adult mosquito demography, dispersal, and egg laying in response to resource availability. The core dynamical components describing mosquito ecology and malaria transmission were decomposed, redesigned and reassembled into a modular framework. Structural elements in the framework-human population strata, patches, and aquatic habitats-interact through a flexible design that facilitates construction of ensembles of models with scalable complexity to support robust analytics for malaria policy and adaptive malaria control. We propose updated definitions for the human biting rate and entomological inoculation rates. We present new formulas to describe parasite dispersal and spatial dynamics under steady state conditions, including the human biting rates, parasite dispersal, the "vectorial capacity matrix," a human transmitting capacity distribution matrix, and threshold conditions. An [Formula: see text] package that implements the framework, solves the differential equations, and computes spatial metrics for models developed in this framework has been developed. Development of the model and metrics have focused on malaria, but since the framework is modular, the same ideas and software can be applied to other mosquito-borne pathogen systems. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T01:34:27Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ef75d6aca9b441cfa7ed6a84b3f7ec66 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1553-734X 1553-7358 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T01:34:27Z |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS Computational Biology |
| spelling | doaj.art-ef75d6aca9b441cfa7ed6a84b3f7ec662023-07-04T05:31:27ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS Computational Biology1553-734X1553-73582023-06-01196e101068410.1371/journal.pcbi.1010684Spatial dynamics of malaria transmission.Sean L WuJohn M HenryDaniel T CitronDoreen Mbabazi SsebulibaJuliet Nakakawa NsumbaHéctor M Sánchez COliver J BradyCarlos A GuerraGuillermo A GarcíaAustin R CarterHeather M FergusonBakare Emmanuel AfolabiSimon I HayRobert C ReinerSamson KiwareDavid L SmithThe Ross-Macdonald model has exerted enormous influence over the study of malaria transmission dynamics and control, but it lacked features to describe parasite dispersal, travel, and other important aspects of heterogeneous transmission. Here, we present a patch-based differential equation modeling framework that extends the Ross-Macdonald model with sufficient skill and complexity to support planning, monitoring and evaluation for Plasmodium falciparum malaria control. We designed a generic interface for building structured, spatial models of malaria transmission based on a new algorithm for mosquito blood feeding. We developed new algorithms to simulate adult mosquito demography, dispersal, and egg laying in response to resource availability. The core dynamical components describing mosquito ecology and malaria transmission were decomposed, redesigned and reassembled into a modular framework. Structural elements in the framework-human population strata, patches, and aquatic habitats-interact through a flexible design that facilitates construction of ensembles of models with scalable complexity to support robust analytics for malaria policy and adaptive malaria control. We propose updated definitions for the human biting rate and entomological inoculation rates. We present new formulas to describe parasite dispersal and spatial dynamics under steady state conditions, including the human biting rates, parasite dispersal, the "vectorial capacity matrix," a human transmitting capacity distribution matrix, and threshold conditions. An [Formula: see text] package that implements the framework, solves the differential equations, and computes spatial metrics for models developed in this framework has been developed. Development of the model and metrics have focused on malaria, but since the framework is modular, the same ideas and software can be applied to other mosquito-borne pathogen systems.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010684 |
| spellingShingle | Sean L Wu John M Henry Daniel T Citron Doreen Mbabazi Ssebuliba Juliet Nakakawa Nsumba Héctor M Sánchez C Oliver J Brady Carlos A Guerra Guillermo A García Austin R Carter Heather M Ferguson Bakare Emmanuel Afolabi Simon I Hay Robert C Reiner Samson Kiware David L Smith Spatial dynamics of malaria transmission. PLoS Computational Biology |
| title | Spatial dynamics of malaria transmission. |
| title_full | Spatial dynamics of malaria transmission. |
| title_fullStr | Spatial dynamics of malaria transmission. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatial dynamics of malaria transmission. |
| title_short | Spatial dynamics of malaria transmission. |
| title_sort | spatial dynamics of malaria transmission |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010684 |
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