Predictability and prediction of decadal hydrologic cycles: A case study in Southern Africa
Decision makers in drought-prone regions of the world and in international organizations responsible for drought relief require advance information, preferably on the decadal timescale, of future hydro-meteorological conditions. Focusing on Southern Africa (SA), a region subject to droughts, we used...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2014-06-01
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| Series: | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094714000231 |
| _version_ | 1818214142219124736 |
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| author | Vikram M. Mehta Hui Wang Katherin Mendoza Norman J. Rosenberg |
| author_facet | Vikram M. Mehta Hui Wang Katherin Mendoza Norman J. Rosenberg |
| author_sort | Vikram M. Mehta |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Decision makers in drought-prone regions of the world and in international organizations responsible for drought relief require advance information, preferably on the decadal timescale, of future hydro-meteorological conditions. Focusing on Southern Africa (SA), a region subject to droughts, we used indices of four decadal climate variability phenomena, statistically associated with Self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (SC-PDSI), hindcast/forecast by the MIROC5 Earth System Model from 1961 to 2019–2020, in a statistical prediction system (SPS) to assess SC-PDSI predictability. The SA-averaged correlation coefficient between hindcast and observations-based SC-PDSI increased from 0.2 in the 1980s to 0.33 in the 2001 to 2009–2010 period; grid point correlations within SA increased from 0.4 to over 0.7 during the last 30 years. The MIROC5 – SPS system forecasts that SA may experience a moderate drought from 2014 to 2016, followed by a wet period around 2019. These hydrologic event forecasts are predicated on the absence of major low-latitude volcanic eruptions during the prediction period. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T06:15:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ef7fe5f43d744f8f9a1be49fbc325da7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2212-0947 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T06:15:29Z |
| publishDate | 2014-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| spelling | doaj.art-ef7fe5f43d744f8f9a1be49fbc325da72022-12-22T00:35:02ZengElsevierWeather and Climate Extremes2212-09472014-06-013C475310.1016/j.wace.2014.04.002Predictability and prediction of decadal hydrologic cycles: A case study in Southern AfricaVikram M. MehtaHui WangKatherin MendozaNorman J. RosenbergDecision makers in drought-prone regions of the world and in international organizations responsible for drought relief require advance information, preferably on the decadal timescale, of future hydro-meteorological conditions. Focusing on Southern Africa (SA), a region subject to droughts, we used indices of four decadal climate variability phenomena, statistically associated with Self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (SC-PDSI), hindcast/forecast by the MIROC5 Earth System Model from 1961 to 2019–2020, in a statistical prediction system (SPS) to assess SC-PDSI predictability. The SA-averaged correlation coefficient between hindcast and observations-based SC-PDSI increased from 0.2 in the 1980s to 0.33 in the 2001 to 2009–2010 period; grid point correlations within SA increased from 0.4 to over 0.7 during the last 30 years. The MIROC5 – SPS system forecasts that SA may experience a moderate drought from 2014 to 2016, followed by a wet period around 2019. These hydrologic event forecasts are predicated on the absence of major low-latitude volcanic eruptions during the prediction period.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094714000231Decadal climate variabilityDecadal hydrologic cycleDecadal droughtsDrought predictionEarth System Models |
| spellingShingle | Vikram M. Mehta Hui Wang Katherin Mendoza Norman J. Rosenberg Predictability and prediction of decadal hydrologic cycles: A case study in Southern Africa Weather and Climate Extremes Decadal climate variability Decadal hydrologic cycle Decadal droughts Drought prediction Earth System Models |
| title | Predictability and prediction of decadal hydrologic cycles: A case study in Southern Africa |
| title_full | Predictability and prediction of decadal hydrologic cycles: A case study in Southern Africa |
| title_fullStr | Predictability and prediction of decadal hydrologic cycles: A case study in Southern Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predictability and prediction of decadal hydrologic cycles: A case study in Southern Africa |
| title_short | Predictability and prediction of decadal hydrologic cycles: A case study in Southern Africa |
| title_sort | predictability and prediction of decadal hydrologic cycles a case study in southern africa |
| topic | Decadal climate variability Decadal hydrologic cycle Decadal droughts Drought prediction Earth System Models |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094714000231 |
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