Why and how to predict sea level changes at a tide gauge station with prediction intervals
Predicting sea level rise is essential for current climate discussions. Empirical models put in use to monitor and analyze sea level variations observed at globally distributed tide gauge stations during the last decade can provide reliable predictions with high resolution. Meanwhile, prediction int...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
De Gruyter
2018-12-01
|
| Series: | Journal of Geodetic Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1515/jogs-2018-0012 |
| _version_ | 1817991182687404032 |
|---|---|
| author | Iz H. Bâki |
| author_facet | Iz H. Bâki |
| author_sort | Iz H. Bâki |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Predicting sea level rise is essential for current climate discussions. Empirical models put in use to monitor and analyze sea level variations observed at globally distributed tide gauge stations during the last decade can provide reliable predictions with high resolution. Meanwhile, prediction intervals, an alternative to confidence intervals, are to be recognized and deployed in sea level studies. Predictions together with their prediction intervals, as demonstrated in this study, can quantify the uncertainty of a single future observation from a population, instead of the uncertainty of a conceivable average sea level namely a confidence interval, and it is thereby, better suited for coastal risk assessment to guide policy development for mitigation and adaptation responses. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-14T01:08:41Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-efb8bf47612647039e2894b03a446e0c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2081-9943 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-14T01:08:41Z |
| publishDate | 2018-12-01 |
| publisher | De Gruyter |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Geodetic Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-efb8bf47612647039e2894b03a446e0c2022-12-22T02:21:09ZengDe GruyterJournal of Geodetic Science2081-99432018-12-018112112910.1515/jogs-2018-0012jogs-2018-0012Why and how to predict sea level changes at a tide gauge station with prediction intervalsIz H. Bâki0Division of Geodetic Science, School of Earth Sciences, The Ohio State University, Columbus,Ohio, U.S.A.Predicting sea level rise is essential for current climate discussions. Empirical models put in use to monitor and analyze sea level variations observed at globally distributed tide gauge stations during the last decade can provide reliable predictions with high resolution. Meanwhile, prediction intervals, an alternative to confidence intervals, are to be recognized and deployed in sea level studies. Predictions together with their prediction intervals, as demonstrated in this study, can quantify the uncertainty of a single future observation from a population, instead of the uncertainty of a conceivable average sea level namely a confidence interval, and it is thereby, better suited for coastal risk assessment to guide policy development for mitigation and adaptation responses.https://doi.org/10.1515/jogs-2018-0012predictionprediction intervalsbest linear unbiased predictionconfidence intervalsprojectiontide gaugesclimate changerisk assessment |
| spellingShingle | Iz H. Bâki Why and how to predict sea level changes at a tide gauge station with prediction intervals Journal of Geodetic Science prediction prediction intervals best linear unbiased prediction confidence intervals projection tide gauges climate change risk assessment |
| title | Why and how to predict sea level changes at a tide gauge station with prediction intervals |
| title_full | Why and how to predict sea level changes at a tide gauge station with prediction intervals |
| title_fullStr | Why and how to predict sea level changes at a tide gauge station with prediction intervals |
| title_full_unstemmed | Why and how to predict sea level changes at a tide gauge station with prediction intervals |
| title_short | Why and how to predict sea level changes at a tide gauge station with prediction intervals |
| title_sort | why and how to predict sea level changes at a tide gauge station with prediction intervals |
| topic | prediction prediction intervals best linear unbiased prediction confidence intervals projection tide gauges climate change risk assessment |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1515/jogs-2018-0012 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT izhbaki whyandhowtopredictsealevelchangesatatidegaugestationwithpredictionintervals |