Modelling hydrological processes under climate change scenarios in the Jemma sub-basin of upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia
This study examines the response of hydrological processes to different climate change scenarios in the Jemma sub-basin of the Blue Nile Basin. Future near-term (2021–2050) and long-term (2071–2100) climate scenarios were developed from six statistically bias corrected Regional Climate Models (RCMs)...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2021-01-01
|
| Series: | Climate Risk Management |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096321000012 |
| _version_ | 1818877915058667520 |
|---|---|
| author | Gebrekidan Worku Ermias Teferi Amare Bantider Yihun T. Dile |
| author_facet | Gebrekidan Worku Ermias Teferi Amare Bantider Yihun T. Dile |
| author_sort | Gebrekidan Worku |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study examines the response of hydrological processes to different climate change scenarios in the Jemma sub-basin of the Blue Nile Basin. Future near-term (2021–2050) and long-term (2071–2100) climate scenarios were developed from six statistically bias corrected Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The outputs of climate models were used as input to a calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the sub-basin. For a robust hydrologic representation, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated at three River gauging stations and provided an acceptable result. The climate scenarios developed from bias corrected RCMs projected an increase in temperature in all models and a decrease in rainfall in the ensemble mean of the models in the near-term and long-term climate scenarios. Climate change may cause a consistent decrease in surface runoff and total water yield and an increase in evapotranspiration under all climate scenarios. This study recommends water management structures which can conserve water for agriculture and other ecosystem services in the Jemma sub-basin and in other similar areas in Ethiopia. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-19T14:05:52Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f04f2a84f22c454594f2aacc6e47959c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2212-0963 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-19T14:05:52Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate Risk Management |
| spelling | doaj.art-f04f2a84f22c454594f2aacc6e47959c2022-12-21T20:18:19ZengElsevierClimate Risk Management2212-09632021-01-0131100272Modelling hydrological processes under climate change scenarios in the Jemma sub-basin of upper Blue Nile Basin, EthiopiaGebrekidan Worku0Ermias Teferi1Amare Bantider2Yihun T. Dile3Department of Natural Resources Management, Debretabor University, Ethiopia; Corresponding author.Center for Environment and Development Studies, Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia; Water and Land Resources Center, Addis Ababa University, EthiopiaCenter for Food Security Studies, Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia; Water and Land Resources Center, Addis Ababa University, EthiopiaCollege of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Texas A&M University, TX, USAThis study examines the response of hydrological processes to different climate change scenarios in the Jemma sub-basin of the Blue Nile Basin. Future near-term (2021–2050) and long-term (2071–2100) climate scenarios were developed from six statistically bias corrected Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The outputs of climate models were used as input to a calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the sub-basin. For a robust hydrologic representation, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated at three River gauging stations and provided an acceptable result. The climate scenarios developed from bias corrected RCMs projected an increase in temperature in all models and a decrease in rainfall in the ensemble mean of the models in the near-term and long-term climate scenarios. Climate change may cause a consistent decrease in surface runoff and total water yield and an increase in evapotranspiration under all climate scenarios. This study recommends water management structures which can conserve water for agriculture and other ecosystem services in the Jemma sub-basin and in other similar areas in Ethiopia.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096321000012Climate ChangeHydrological processesSWATRCPJemmaBlue Nile Basin |
| spellingShingle | Gebrekidan Worku Ermias Teferi Amare Bantider Yihun T. Dile Modelling hydrological processes under climate change scenarios in the Jemma sub-basin of upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia Climate Risk Management Climate Change Hydrological processes SWAT RCP Jemma Blue Nile Basin |
| title | Modelling hydrological processes under climate change scenarios in the Jemma sub-basin of upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_full | Modelling hydrological processes under climate change scenarios in the Jemma sub-basin of upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_fullStr | Modelling hydrological processes under climate change scenarios in the Jemma sub-basin of upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling hydrological processes under climate change scenarios in the Jemma sub-basin of upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_short | Modelling hydrological processes under climate change scenarios in the Jemma sub-basin of upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_sort | modelling hydrological processes under climate change scenarios in the jemma sub basin of upper blue nile basin ethiopia |
| topic | Climate Change Hydrological processes SWAT RCP Jemma Blue Nile Basin |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096321000012 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT gebrekidanworku modellinghydrologicalprocessesunderclimatechangescenariosinthejemmasubbasinofupperbluenilebasinethiopia AT ermiasteferi modellinghydrologicalprocessesunderclimatechangescenariosinthejemmasubbasinofupperbluenilebasinethiopia AT amarebantider modellinghydrologicalprocessesunderclimatechangescenariosinthejemmasubbasinofupperbluenilebasinethiopia AT yihuntdile modellinghydrologicalprocessesunderclimatechangescenariosinthejemmasubbasinofupperbluenilebasinethiopia |