Global Comparison of Changes in the Number of Test-Positive Cases and Deaths by Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19) in the World
Global differences in changes in the numbers of population-adjusted daily test-positive cases (NPDP) and deaths (NPDD) by COVID-19 were analyzed for 49 countries, including developed and developing countries. The changes as a proportion of national population were compared, adjusting by the beginnin...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-06-01
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| Series: | Journal of Clinical Medicine |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/6/1904 |
| _version_ | 1797564919659364352 |
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| author | Akihiro Hisaka Hideki Yoshioka Hiroto Hatakeyama Hiromi Sato Yoshihiro Onouchi Naohiko Anzai |
| author_facet | Akihiro Hisaka Hideki Yoshioka Hiroto Hatakeyama Hiromi Sato Yoshihiro Onouchi Naohiko Anzai |
| author_sort | Akihiro Hisaka |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Global differences in changes in the numbers of population-adjusted daily test-positive cases (NPDP) and deaths (NPDD) by COVID-19 were analyzed for 49 countries, including developed and developing countries. The changes as a proportion of national population were compared, adjusting by the beginning of test-positive cases increase (BPI) or deaths increase (BDI). Remarkable regional differences of more than 100-fold in NPDP and NPDD were observed. The trajectories of NPDD after BDI increased exponentially within 20 days in most countries. Machine learning analysis suggested that NPDD on 30 days after BDI was the highest in developed Western countries (1180 persons per hundred million), followed by countries in the Middle East (128), Latin America (97), and Asia (7). Furthermore, in Western countries with positive rates of the PCR test of less than 7.0%, the increase in NPDP was slowing-down two weeks after BPI, and subsequent NPDD was only 15% compared with those with higher positive rates, which suggested that the situation of testing might have affected the velocity of COVID-19 spread. The causes behind remarkable differences between regions possibly include genetic factors of inhabitants because distributions of the race and of the observed infection increasing rates were in good agreement globally. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T19:04:41Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f05eb2d93a454897ab7408abba9e47ce |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2077-0383 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T19:04:41Z |
| publishDate | 2020-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Clinical Medicine |
| spelling | doaj.art-f05eb2d93a454897ab7408abba9e47ce2023-11-20T04:14:46ZengMDPI AGJournal of Clinical Medicine2077-03832020-06-0196190410.3390/jcm9061904Global Comparison of Changes in the Number of Test-Positive Cases and Deaths by Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19) in the WorldAkihiro Hisaka0Hideki Yoshioka1Hiroto Hatakeyama2Hiromi Sato3Yoshihiro Onouchi4Naohiko Anzai5Clinical Pharmacology and Pharmacometrics, Graduate School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Chiba University, 1-8-1, Inohana, Chuo-ku, Chiba 260-8675, JapanClinical Pharmacology and Pharmacometrics, Graduate School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Chiba University, 1-8-1, Inohana, Chuo-ku, Chiba 260-8675, JapanClinical Pharmacology and Pharmacometrics, Graduate School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Chiba University, 1-8-1, Inohana, Chuo-ku, Chiba 260-8675, JapanClinical Pharmacology and Pharmacometrics, Graduate School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Chiba University, 1-8-1, Inohana, Chuo-ku, Chiba 260-8675, JapanDepartment of Public Health, Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba University, Chiba, 1-8-1, Inohana, Chuo-ku, Chiba 260-8670, JapanDepartment of Pharmacology, Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba University, Chiba, 1-8-1, Inohana, Chuo-ku, Chiba 260-8670, JapanGlobal differences in changes in the numbers of population-adjusted daily test-positive cases (NPDP) and deaths (NPDD) by COVID-19 were analyzed for 49 countries, including developed and developing countries. The changes as a proportion of national population were compared, adjusting by the beginning of test-positive cases increase (BPI) or deaths increase (BDI). Remarkable regional differences of more than 100-fold in NPDP and NPDD were observed. The trajectories of NPDD after BDI increased exponentially within 20 days in most countries. Machine learning analysis suggested that NPDD on 30 days after BDI was the highest in developed Western countries (1180 persons per hundred million), followed by countries in the Middle East (128), Latin America (97), and Asia (7). Furthermore, in Western countries with positive rates of the PCR test of less than 7.0%, the increase in NPDP was slowing-down two weeks after BPI, and subsequent NPDD was only 15% compared with those with higher positive rates, which suggested that the situation of testing might have affected the velocity of COVID-19 spread. The causes behind remarkable differences between regions possibly include genetic factors of inhabitants because distributions of the race and of the observed infection increasing rates were in good agreement globally.https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/6/1904COVID-19coronavirusinfectious diseaseinfection managementPCR testmortality |
| spellingShingle | Akihiro Hisaka Hideki Yoshioka Hiroto Hatakeyama Hiromi Sato Yoshihiro Onouchi Naohiko Anzai Global Comparison of Changes in the Number of Test-Positive Cases and Deaths by Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19) in the World Journal of Clinical Medicine COVID-19 coronavirus infectious disease infection management PCR test mortality |
| title | Global Comparison of Changes in the Number of Test-Positive Cases and Deaths by Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19) in the World |
| title_full | Global Comparison of Changes in the Number of Test-Positive Cases and Deaths by Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19) in the World |
| title_fullStr | Global Comparison of Changes in the Number of Test-Positive Cases and Deaths by Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19) in the World |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global Comparison of Changes in the Number of Test-Positive Cases and Deaths by Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19) in the World |
| title_short | Global Comparison of Changes in the Number of Test-Positive Cases and Deaths by Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19) in the World |
| title_sort | global comparison of changes in the number of test positive cases and deaths by coronavirus infection covid 19 in the world |
| topic | COVID-19 coronavirus infectious disease infection management PCR test mortality |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/6/1904 |
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