Differentiation and Prediction of Shale Gas Production in Horizontal Wells: A Case Study of the Weiyuan Shale Gas Field, China
The estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of shale gas is an important index for evaluating the production capacity of horizontal wells. The Weiyuan shale gas field has wells with considerable EUR differentiation, which hinders the prediction of the production capacity of new wells. Accordingly, 121 wel...
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MDPI AG
2022-08-01
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| Series: | Energies |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/17/6161 |
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| author | Lixia Kang Wei Guo Xiaowei Zhang Yuyang Liu Zhaoyuan Shao |
| author_facet | Lixia Kang Wei Guo Xiaowei Zhang Yuyang Liu Zhaoyuan Shao |
| author_sort | Lixia Kang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of shale gas is an important index for evaluating the production capacity of horizontal wells. The Weiyuan shale gas field has wells with considerable EUR differentiation, which hinders the prediction of the production capacity of new wells. Accordingly, 121 wells with highly differentiated production are used for analysis. First, the main control factors of well production are identified via single-factor and multi-factor analyses, with the EUR set as the production capacity index. Subsequently, the key factors are selected to perform the multiple linear regression of EUR, accompanied by the developed method for well production prediction. The thickness and drilled length of Long 1<sub>1</sub><sup>1</sup> (Substratum 1 of Long 1 submember, Lower Silurian Longmaxi Formation) are demonstrated to have the uttermost effects on the well production, while several other factors also play important roles, including the fractured horizontal wellbore length, gas saturation, brittle mineral content, fracturing stage quantity, and proppant injection intensity. The multiple linear regression method can help accurately predict EUR, with errors of no more than 10%, in wells that have smooth production curves and are free of artificial interference, such as casing deformation, frac hit, and sudden change in production schemes. The results of this study are expected to provide certain guiding significances for shale gas development. |
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f069f1adf5c54d6e890c431d41252640 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1996-1073 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T01:53:28Z |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
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| series | Energies |
| spelling | doaj.art-f069f1adf5c54d6e890c431d412526402023-11-23T13:01:23ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732022-08-011517616110.3390/en15176161Differentiation and Prediction of Shale Gas Production in Horizontal Wells: A Case Study of the Weiyuan Shale Gas Field, ChinaLixia Kang0Wei Guo1Xiaowei Zhang2Yuyang Liu3Zhaoyuan Shao4PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, Beijing 100083, ChinaPetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, Beijing 100083, ChinaPetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, Beijing 100083, ChinaPetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, Beijing 100083, ChinaPetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, Beijing 100083, ChinaThe estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of shale gas is an important index for evaluating the production capacity of horizontal wells. The Weiyuan shale gas field has wells with considerable EUR differentiation, which hinders the prediction of the production capacity of new wells. Accordingly, 121 wells with highly differentiated production are used for analysis. First, the main control factors of well production are identified via single-factor and multi-factor analyses, with the EUR set as the production capacity index. Subsequently, the key factors are selected to perform the multiple linear regression of EUR, accompanied by the developed method for well production prediction. The thickness and drilled length of Long 1<sub>1</sub><sup>1</sup> (Substratum 1 of Long 1 submember, Lower Silurian Longmaxi Formation) are demonstrated to have the uttermost effects on the well production, while several other factors also play important roles, including the fractured horizontal wellbore length, gas saturation, brittle mineral content, fracturing stage quantity, and proppant injection intensity. The multiple linear regression method can help accurately predict EUR, with errors of no more than 10%, in wells that have smooth production curves and are free of artificial interference, such as casing deformation, frac hit, and sudden change in production schemes. The results of this study are expected to provide certain guiding significances for shale gas development.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/17/6161shale gasgrey correlation methodmultiple linear regressionproduction evaluationmain control factorestimated ultimate recovery |
| spellingShingle | Lixia Kang Wei Guo Xiaowei Zhang Yuyang Liu Zhaoyuan Shao Differentiation and Prediction of Shale Gas Production in Horizontal Wells: A Case Study of the Weiyuan Shale Gas Field, China Energies shale gas grey correlation method multiple linear regression production evaluation main control factor estimated ultimate recovery |
| title | Differentiation and Prediction of Shale Gas Production in Horizontal Wells: A Case Study of the Weiyuan Shale Gas Field, China |
| title_full | Differentiation and Prediction of Shale Gas Production in Horizontal Wells: A Case Study of the Weiyuan Shale Gas Field, China |
| title_fullStr | Differentiation and Prediction of Shale Gas Production in Horizontal Wells: A Case Study of the Weiyuan Shale Gas Field, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Differentiation and Prediction of Shale Gas Production in Horizontal Wells: A Case Study of the Weiyuan Shale Gas Field, China |
| title_short | Differentiation and Prediction of Shale Gas Production in Horizontal Wells: A Case Study of the Weiyuan Shale Gas Field, China |
| title_sort | differentiation and prediction of shale gas production in horizontal wells a case study of the weiyuan shale gas field china |
| topic | shale gas grey correlation method multiple linear regression production evaluation main control factor estimated ultimate recovery |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/17/6161 |
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