The role of global economic policy uncertainty in long-run volatilities and correlations of U.S. industry-level stock returns and crude oil.

We investigate how Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) drives the long-run components of volatilities and correlations in crude oil and U.S. industry-level stock markets. Using the modified generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity mixed data sampling (GARCH-MIDAS) and dynamic...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Honghai Yu, Libing Fang, Boyang Sun
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2018-01-01
Series:PLoS ONE
Online Access:http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5805266?pdf=render
Description
Summary:We investigate how Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) drives the long-run components of volatilities and correlations in crude oil and U.S. industry-level stock markets. Using the modified generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity mixed data sampling (GARCH-MIDAS) and dynamic conditional correlation mixed data sampling (DCC-MIDAS) specifications, we find that GEPU is positively related to the long-run volatility of Financials and Consumer Discretionary industries; however, it is negatively related to Information Technology, Materials, Telecommunication Services and Energy. Unlike the mixed role of GEPU in the long-run volatilities, the long-run correlations are all positively related to GEPU across the industries. Additionally, the rankings of the correlations of Energy and Materials are time-invariant and classified as high, with the little exception of the latter. The Consumer Staples industry is time-invariant in the low-ranking group. Our results are helpful to policy makers and investors with long-term concerns.
ISSN:1932-6203