Forecasting characteristic earthquakes in a minimalist model
Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurrence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the ocurrence of a characteristic event. The evaluation of this strategy leads to a one-dimensional num...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2003-01-01
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| Series: | Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
| Online Access: | http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/10/565/2003/npg-10-565-2003.pdf |
| _version_ | 1819207243679137792 |
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| author | M. Vázquez-Prada À. González J. B. Gómez A. F. Pacheco |
| author_facet | M. Vázquez-Prada À. González J. B. Gómez A. F. Pacheco |
| author_sort | M. Vázquez-Prada |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurrence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the ocurrence of a characteristic event. The evaluation of this strategy leads to a one-dimensional numerical exploration of the loss function. This first strategy is then refined by considering a classification of the seismic cycles of the model according to the presence, or not, of some factors related to the seismicity observed in the cycle. These factors, statistically speaking, enlarge or shorten the length of the cycles. The independent evaluation of the impact of these factors in the forecast process leads to two-dimensional numerical explorations. Finally, and as a third gradual step in the process of refinement, we combine these factors leading to a three-dimensional exploration. The final improvement in the loss function is about 8.5%. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-23T05:20:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f070267dee1f4cbaa3d01f941e221771 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1023-5809 1607-7946 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-23T05:20:24Z |
| publishDate | 2003-01-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
| spelling | doaj.art-f070267dee1f4cbaa3d01f941e2217712022-12-21T17:58:43ZengCopernicus PublicationsNonlinear Processes in Geophysics1023-58091607-79462003-01-01106565571Forecasting characteristic earthquakes in a minimalist modelM. Vázquez-PradaÀ. GonzálezJ. B. GómezA. F. PachecoUsing error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurrence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the ocurrence of a characteristic event. The evaluation of this strategy leads to a one-dimensional numerical exploration of the loss function. This first strategy is then refined by considering a classification of the seismic cycles of the model according to the presence, or not, of some factors related to the seismicity observed in the cycle. These factors, statistically speaking, enlarge or shorten the length of the cycles. The independent evaluation of the impact of these factors in the forecast process leads to two-dimensional numerical explorations. Finally, and as a third gradual step in the process of refinement, we combine these factors leading to a three-dimensional exploration. The final improvement in the loss function is about 8.5%.http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/10/565/2003/npg-10-565-2003.pdf |
| spellingShingle | M. Vázquez-Prada À. González J. B. Gómez A. F. Pacheco Forecasting characteristic earthquakes in a minimalist model Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
| title | Forecasting characteristic earthquakes in a minimalist model |
| title_full | Forecasting characteristic earthquakes in a minimalist model |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting characteristic earthquakes in a minimalist model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting characteristic earthquakes in a minimalist model |
| title_short | Forecasting characteristic earthquakes in a minimalist model |
| title_sort | forecasting characteristic earthquakes in a minimalist model |
| url | http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/10/565/2003/npg-10-565-2003.pdf |
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