Potential role of particulate matter in the spreading of COVID-19 in Northern Italy: first observational study based on initial epidemic diffusion
Objectives A number of studies have shown that the airborne transmission route could spread some viruses over a distance of 2 meters from an infected person. An epidemic model based only on respiratory droplets and close contact could not fully explain the regional differences in the spread of COVID...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMJ Publishing Group
2020-09-01
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| Series: | BMJ Open |
| Online Access: | https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/9/e039338.full |
| _version_ | 1826898024633204736 |
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| author | Alessandro Miani Annamaria Colao Prisco Piscitelli Leonardo Setti Fabrizio Passarini Gianluigi De Gennaro Pierluigi Barbieri Sabina Licen Maria Grazia Perrone Andrea Piazzalunga Massimo Borelli Jolanda Palmisani Alessia Di Gilio Emanuele Rizzo |
| author_facet | Alessandro Miani Annamaria Colao Prisco Piscitelli Leonardo Setti Fabrizio Passarini Gianluigi De Gennaro Pierluigi Barbieri Sabina Licen Maria Grazia Perrone Andrea Piazzalunga Massimo Borelli Jolanda Palmisani Alessia Di Gilio Emanuele Rizzo |
| author_sort | Alessandro Miani |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objectives A number of studies have shown that the airborne transmission route could spread some viruses over a distance of 2 meters from an infected person. An epidemic model based only on respiratory droplets and close contact could not fully explain the regional differences in the spread of COVID-19 in Italy. On March 16th 2020, we presented a position paper proposing a research hypothesis concerning the association between higher mortality rates due to COVID-19 observed in Northern Italy and average concentrations of PM10 exceeding a daily limit of 50 µg/m3.Methods To monitor the spreading of COVID-19 in Italy from February 24th to March 13th (the date of the Italian lockdown), official daily data for PM10 levels were collected from all Italian provinces between February 9th and February 29th, taking into account the maximum lag period (14 days) between the infection and diagnosis. In addition to the number of exceedances of the daily limit value of PM10, we also considered population data and daily travelling information for each province.Results Exceedance of the daily limit value of PM10 appears to be a significant predictor of infection in univariate analyses (p<0.001). Less polluted provinces had a median of 0.03 infections over 1000 residents, while the most polluted provinces showed a median of 0.26 cases. Thirty-nine out of 41 Northern Italian provinces resulted in the category with the highest PM10 levels, while 62 out of 66 Southern provinces presented low PM10 concentrations (p<0.001). In Milan, the average growth rate before the lockdown was significantly higher than in Rome (0.34 vs 0.27 per day, with a doubling time of 2.0 days vs 2.6, respectively), thus suggesting a basic reproductive number R0>6.0, comparable with the highest values estimated for China.Conclusion A significant association has been found between the geographical distribution of daily PM10 exceedances and the initial spreading of COVID-19 in the 110 Italian provinces. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-17T03:09:17Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f09ce3606ccc49e3bbbee885d30c8a09 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2044-6055 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-02-17T06:26:45Z |
| publishDate | 2020-09-01 |
| publisher | BMJ Publishing Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMJ Open |
| spelling | doaj.art-f09ce3606ccc49e3bbbee885d30c8a092025-01-07T11:50:08ZengBMJ Publishing GroupBMJ Open2044-60552020-09-0110910.1136/bmjopen-2020-039338Potential role of particulate matter in the spreading of COVID-19 in Northern Italy: first observational study based on initial epidemic diffusionAlessandro Miani0Annamaria Colao1Prisco Piscitelli2Leonardo Setti3Fabrizio Passarini4Gianluigi De Gennaro5Pierluigi Barbieri6Sabina Licen7Maria Grazia Perrone8Andrea Piazzalunga9Massimo Borelli10Jolanda Palmisani11Alessia Di Gilio12Emanuele Rizzo13Scienze e Politiche Ambientali, University of Milan, Milano, Lombardia, Italy7Università di Napoli Federico II, Napoli, ItalyEuro Mediterranean Scientific Biomedical Institute, Bruxelles, BelgiumIndustrial Chemistry “Toso Montanari”, University of Bologna, Bologna, Emilia-Romagna, ItalyIndustrial Chemistry “Toso Montanari”, University of Bologna, Bologna, Emilia-Romagna, ItalyBiology, University of Bari “Aldo Moro”, Bari, Puglia, ItalyChemical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Trieste, Trieste, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, ItalyChemical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Trieste, Trieste, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, ItalyTCR TECORA, Milan, ItalyWater & Life Lab, Bergamo, JapanChemical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Trieste, Trieste, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, ItalyBiology, University of Bari “Aldo Moro”, Bari, Puglia, ItalyBiology, University of Bari “Aldo Moro”, Bari, Puglia, ItalyItalian Society of Environmental Medicine, SIMA, Milan, ItalyObjectives A number of studies have shown that the airborne transmission route could spread some viruses over a distance of 2 meters from an infected person. An epidemic model based only on respiratory droplets and close contact could not fully explain the regional differences in the spread of COVID-19 in Italy. On March 16th 2020, we presented a position paper proposing a research hypothesis concerning the association between higher mortality rates due to COVID-19 observed in Northern Italy and average concentrations of PM10 exceeding a daily limit of 50 µg/m3.Methods To monitor the spreading of COVID-19 in Italy from February 24th to March 13th (the date of the Italian lockdown), official daily data for PM10 levels were collected from all Italian provinces between February 9th and February 29th, taking into account the maximum lag period (14 days) between the infection and diagnosis. In addition to the number of exceedances of the daily limit value of PM10, we also considered population data and daily travelling information for each province.Results Exceedance of the daily limit value of PM10 appears to be a significant predictor of infection in univariate analyses (p<0.001). Less polluted provinces had a median of 0.03 infections over 1000 residents, while the most polluted provinces showed a median of 0.26 cases. Thirty-nine out of 41 Northern Italian provinces resulted in the category with the highest PM10 levels, while 62 out of 66 Southern provinces presented low PM10 concentrations (p<0.001). In Milan, the average growth rate before the lockdown was significantly higher than in Rome (0.34 vs 0.27 per day, with a doubling time of 2.0 days vs 2.6, respectively), thus suggesting a basic reproductive number R0>6.0, comparable with the highest values estimated for China.Conclusion A significant association has been found between the geographical distribution of daily PM10 exceedances and the initial spreading of COVID-19 in the 110 Italian provinces.https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/9/e039338.full |
| spellingShingle | Alessandro Miani Annamaria Colao Prisco Piscitelli Leonardo Setti Fabrizio Passarini Gianluigi De Gennaro Pierluigi Barbieri Sabina Licen Maria Grazia Perrone Andrea Piazzalunga Massimo Borelli Jolanda Palmisani Alessia Di Gilio Emanuele Rizzo Potential role of particulate matter in the spreading of COVID-19 in Northern Italy: first observational study based on initial epidemic diffusion BMJ Open |
| title | Potential role of particulate matter in the spreading of COVID-19 in Northern Italy: first observational study based on initial epidemic diffusion |
| title_full | Potential role of particulate matter in the spreading of COVID-19 in Northern Italy: first observational study based on initial epidemic diffusion |
| title_fullStr | Potential role of particulate matter in the spreading of COVID-19 in Northern Italy: first observational study based on initial epidemic diffusion |
| title_full_unstemmed | Potential role of particulate matter in the spreading of COVID-19 in Northern Italy: first observational study based on initial epidemic diffusion |
| title_short | Potential role of particulate matter in the spreading of COVID-19 in Northern Italy: first observational study based on initial epidemic diffusion |
| title_sort | potential role of particulate matter in the spreading of covid 19 in northern italy first observational study based on initial epidemic diffusion |
| url | https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/9/e039338.full |
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