Inside the IMF “mea culpa”: A panel analysis on growth forecast errors and Keynesian multipliers in Europe
The tests carried out by Blanchard and Leigh (2013; IMF, 2012) and Fátas and Summers (2018) are extended here into a panel framework in order to assess the empirical basis of the so-called IMF “mea culpa” regarding the underestimation of Keynesian multipliers during the euro area crisis. The obj...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Associazione Economia civile
2020-10-01
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| Series: | PSL Quarterly Review |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://rosa.uniroma1.it/rosa04/psl_quarterly_review/article/view/17120 |
| _version_ | 1811172604361310208 |
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| author | Emiliano Brancaccio Fabiana De Cristofaro |
| author_facet | Emiliano Brancaccio Fabiana De Cristofaro |
| author_sort | Emiliano Brancaccio |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
The tests carried out by Blanchard and Leigh (2013; IMF, 2012) and Fátas and Summers (2018) are extended here into a panel framework in order to assess the empirical basis of the so-called IMF “mea culpa” regarding the underestimation of Keynesian multipliers during the euro area crisis. The objections put forward by the European Central Bank, the European Commission and other authors against the “underestimation” thesis are tested and refuted. The results support the “mea culpa” and highlight that the underestimation of multipliers can concern both the short and the long term.
JEL codes:E23, E27, E62
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| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T17:34:03Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f0a9417e96994a88b5539ed2148e88d3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2037-3635 2037-3643 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T17:34:03Z |
| publishDate | 2020-10-01 |
| publisher | Associazione Economia civile |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PSL Quarterly Review |
| spelling | doaj.art-f0a9417e96994a88b5539ed2148e88d32023-02-03T16:42:24ZengAssociazione Economia civilePSL Quarterly Review2037-36352037-36432020-10-017329410.13133/2037-3643_73.294_2Inside the IMF “mea culpa”: A panel analysis on growth forecast errors and Keynesian multipliers in EuropeEmiliano Brancaccio0Fabiana De Cristofaro1Università del Sannio, Benevento, ItalyScuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Pisa, Italy The tests carried out by Blanchard and Leigh (2013; IMF, 2012) and Fátas and Summers (2018) are extended here into a panel framework in order to assess the empirical basis of the so-called IMF “mea culpa” regarding the underestimation of Keynesian multipliers during the euro area crisis. The objections put forward by the European Central Bank, the European Commission and other authors against the “underestimation” thesis are tested and refuted. The results support the “mea culpa” and highlight that the underestimation of multipliers can concern both the short and the long term. JEL codes:E23, E27, E62 https://rosa.uniroma1.it/rosa04/psl_quarterly_review/article/view/17120GDP forecast errorsKeynesian multiplierspanel analysis |
| spellingShingle | Emiliano Brancaccio Fabiana De Cristofaro Inside the IMF “mea culpa”: A panel analysis on growth forecast errors and Keynesian multipliers in Europe PSL Quarterly Review GDP forecast errors Keynesian multipliers panel analysis |
| title | Inside the IMF “mea culpa”: A panel analysis on growth forecast errors and Keynesian multipliers in Europe |
| title_full | Inside the IMF “mea culpa”: A panel analysis on growth forecast errors and Keynesian multipliers in Europe |
| title_fullStr | Inside the IMF “mea culpa”: A panel analysis on growth forecast errors and Keynesian multipliers in Europe |
| title_full_unstemmed | Inside the IMF “mea culpa”: A panel analysis on growth forecast errors and Keynesian multipliers in Europe |
| title_short | Inside the IMF “mea culpa”: A panel analysis on growth forecast errors and Keynesian multipliers in Europe |
| title_sort | inside the imf mea culpa a panel analysis on growth forecast errors and keynesian multipliers in europe |
| topic | GDP forecast errors Keynesian multipliers panel analysis |
| url | https://rosa.uniroma1.it/rosa04/psl_quarterly_review/article/view/17120 |
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