Is a COVID-19 Vaccine Likely to Make Things Worse?
In order to limit the disease burden and economic costs associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important to understand how effective and widely distributed a vaccine must be in order to have a beneficial impact on public health. To evaluate the potential effect of a vaccine, we developed risk...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-12-01
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| Series: | Vaccines |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/8/4/761 |
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| author | Stéphanie M. C. Abo Stacey R. Smith? |
| author_facet | Stéphanie M. C. Abo Stacey R. Smith? |
| author_sort | Stéphanie M. C. Abo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In order to limit the disease burden and economic costs associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important to understand how effective and widely distributed a vaccine must be in order to have a beneficial impact on public health. To evaluate the potential effect of a vaccine, we developed risk equations for the daily risk of COVID-19 infection both currently and after a vaccine becomes available. Our risk equations account for the basic transmission probability of COVID-19 (<inline-formula><math display="inline"><semantics><mi>β</mi></semantics></math></inline-formula>) and the lowered risk due to various protection options: physical distancing; face coverings such as masks, goggles, face shields or other medical equipment; handwashing; and vaccination. We found that the outcome depends significantly on the degree of vaccine uptake: if uptake is higher than 80%, then the daily risk can be cut by 50% or more. However, if less than 40% of people get vaccinated and other protection options are abandoned—as may well happen in the wake of a COVID-19 vaccine—then introducing even an excellent vaccine will produce a worse outcome than our current situation. It is thus critical that effective education strategies are employed in tandem with vaccine rollout. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T14:06:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f0b0283e402c4b308121bc92a4668206 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-393X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T14:06:24Z |
| publishDate | 2020-12-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Vaccines |
| spelling | doaj.art-f0b0283e402c4b308121bc92a46682062023-11-21T00:42:10ZengMDPI AGVaccines2076-393X2020-12-018476110.3390/vaccines8040761Is a COVID-19 Vaccine Likely to Make Things Worse?Stéphanie M. C. Abo0Stacey R. Smith?1Department of Applied Mathematics, The University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 4A1, CanadaDepartment of Mathematics and Faculty of Medicine, The University of Ottawa, 150 Louis-Pasteur Pvt, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, CanadaIn order to limit the disease burden and economic costs associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important to understand how effective and widely distributed a vaccine must be in order to have a beneficial impact on public health. To evaluate the potential effect of a vaccine, we developed risk equations for the daily risk of COVID-19 infection both currently and after a vaccine becomes available. Our risk equations account for the basic transmission probability of COVID-19 (<inline-formula><math display="inline"><semantics><mi>β</mi></semantics></math></inline-formula>) and the lowered risk due to various protection options: physical distancing; face coverings such as masks, goggles, face shields or other medical equipment; handwashing; and vaccination. We found that the outcome depends significantly on the degree of vaccine uptake: if uptake is higher than 80%, then the daily risk can be cut by 50% or more. However, if less than 40% of people get vaccinated and other protection options are abandoned—as may well happen in the wake of a COVID-19 vaccine—then introducing even an excellent vaccine will produce a worse outcome than our current situation. It is thus critical that effective education strategies are employed in tandem with vaccine rollout.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/8/4/761COVID-19risk equationsvaccinelatin hypercube samplingpartial rank correlation coefficients |
| spellingShingle | Stéphanie M. C. Abo Stacey R. Smith? Is a COVID-19 Vaccine Likely to Make Things Worse? Vaccines COVID-19 risk equations vaccine latin hypercube sampling partial rank correlation coefficients |
| title | Is a COVID-19 Vaccine Likely to Make Things Worse? |
| title_full | Is a COVID-19 Vaccine Likely to Make Things Worse? |
| title_fullStr | Is a COVID-19 Vaccine Likely to Make Things Worse? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Is a COVID-19 Vaccine Likely to Make Things Worse? |
| title_short | Is a COVID-19 Vaccine Likely to Make Things Worse? |
| title_sort | is a covid 19 vaccine likely to make things worse |
| topic | COVID-19 risk equations vaccine latin hypercube sampling partial rank correlation coefficients |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/8/4/761 |
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