Critical slowing down in dynamical systems driven by nonstationary correlated noise
Precursor signals for bifurcation-induced critical transitions have recently gained interest across many research fields. Common indicators, including variance and autocorrelation increases, rely on the dynamical system being driven by white noise. Here, we show that these metrics raise false alarms...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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American Physical Society
2022-03-01
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| Series: | Physical Review Research |
| Online Access: | http://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevResearch.4.013230 |
| _version_ | 1797210827682480128 |
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| author | Christopher Boettner Niklas Boers |
| author_facet | Christopher Boettner Niklas Boers |
| author_sort | Christopher Boettner |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Precursor signals for bifurcation-induced critical transitions have recently gained interest across many research fields. Common indicators, including variance and autocorrelation increases, rely on the dynamical system being driven by white noise. Here, we show that these metrics raise false alarms for systems driven by time-correlated noise, if the autocorrelation of the noise process increases with time. We introduce an indicator for systems driven by nonstationary short-term memory noise, and show that this indicator performs well in situations where the classical methods fail. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T10:16:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f0f60e74113e409595bffab79a877a64 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2643-1564 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T10:16:47Z |
| publishDate | 2022-03-01 |
| publisher | American Physical Society |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Physical Review Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-f0f60e74113e409595bffab79a877a642024-04-12T17:19:17ZengAmerican Physical SocietyPhysical Review Research2643-15642022-03-014101323010.1103/PhysRevResearch.4.013230Critical slowing down in dynamical systems driven by nonstationary correlated noiseChristopher BoettnerNiklas BoersPrecursor signals for bifurcation-induced critical transitions have recently gained interest across many research fields. Common indicators, including variance and autocorrelation increases, rely on the dynamical system being driven by white noise. Here, we show that these metrics raise false alarms for systems driven by time-correlated noise, if the autocorrelation of the noise process increases with time. We introduce an indicator for systems driven by nonstationary short-term memory noise, and show that this indicator performs well in situations where the classical methods fail.http://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevResearch.4.013230 |
| spellingShingle | Christopher Boettner Niklas Boers Critical slowing down in dynamical systems driven by nonstationary correlated noise Physical Review Research |
| title | Critical slowing down in dynamical systems driven by nonstationary correlated noise |
| title_full | Critical slowing down in dynamical systems driven by nonstationary correlated noise |
| title_fullStr | Critical slowing down in dynamical systems driven by nonstationary correlated noise |
| title_full_unstemmed | Critical slowing down in dynamical systems driven by nonstationary correlated noise |
| title_short | Critical slowing down in dynamical systems driven by nonstationary correlated noise |
| title_sort | critical slowing down in dynamical systems driven by nonstationary correlated noise |
| url | http://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevResearch.4.013230 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT christopherboettner criticalslowingdownindynamicalsystemsdrivenbynonstationarycorrelatednoise AT niklasboers criticalslowingdownindynamicalsystemsdrivenbynonstationarycorrelatednoise |