Ross–Weddell Dipole Critical for Antarctic Sea Ice Predictability in MPI–ESM–HR
We use hindcasts from a state-of-the-art decadal climate prediction system initialized between 1979 and 2017 to explore the predictability of the Antarctic dipole—that is, the seesaw between sea ice cover in the Weddell and Ross Seas, and discuss its implications for Antarctic sea ice predictability...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2024-02-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/3/295 |
| _version_ | 1797242177567326208 |
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| author | Davide Zanchettin Kameswarrao Modali Wolfgang A. Müller Angelo Rubino |
| author_facet | Davide Zanchettin Kameswarrao Modali Wolfgang A. Müller Angelo Rubino |
| author_sort | Davide Zanchettin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We use hindcasts from a state-of-the-art decadal climate prediction system initialized between 1979 and 2017 to explore the predictability of the Antarctic dipole—that is, the seesaw between sea ice cover in the Weddell and Ross Seas, and discuss its implications for Antarctic sea ice predictability. Our results indicate low forecast skills for the Antarctic dipole in the first hindcast year, with a strong relaxation of March values toward the climatology contrasting with an overestimation of anomalies in September, which we interpret as being linked to a predominance of local drift processes over initialized large-scale dynamics. Forecast skills for the Antarctic dipole and total Antarctic sea ice extent are uncorrelated. Limited predictability of the Antarctic dipole is also found under preconditioning around strong warm and strong cold events of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Initialization timing and model drift are reported as potential explanations for the poor predictive skills identified. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T18:35:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f126d3f42d6f4b7595047646b30162ac |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T18:35:05Z |
| publishDate | 2024-02-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-f126d3f42d6f4b7595047646b30162ac2024-03-27T13:20:37ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332024-02-0115329510.3390/atmos15030295Ross–Weddell Dipole Critical for Antarctic Sea Ice Predictability in MPI–ESM–HRDavide Zanchettin0Kameswarrao Modali1Wolfgang A. Müller2Angelo Rubino3Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’Foscari of Venice, Via Torino 155, 30172 Mestre, ItalyDeutsches Klimarechenzentrum GmbH (DKRZ), Bundesstraße 45a, D-20146 Hamburg, GermanyMax Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstraße 53, D-20146 Hamburg, GermanyDepartment of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca’Foscari of Venice, Via Torino 155, 30172 Mestre, ItalyWe use hindcasts from a state-of-the-art decadal climate prediction system initialized between 1979 and 2017 to explore the predictability of the Antarctic dipole—that is, the seesaw between sea ice cover in the Weddell and Ross Seas, and discuss its implications for Antarctic sea ice predictability. Our results indicate low forecast skills for the Antarctic dipole in the first hindcast year, with a strong relaxation of March values toward the climatology contrasting with an overestimation of anomalies in September, which we interpret as being linked to a predominance of local drift processes over initialized large-scale dynamics. Forecast skills for the Antarctic dipole and total Antarctic sea ice extent are uncorrelated. Limited predictability of the Antarctic dipole is also found under preconditioning around strong warm and strong cold events of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Initialization timing and model drift are reported as potential explanations for the poor predictive skills identified.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/3/295Antarctic sea icedecadal climate predictionsAntarctic dipoleENSOinterannual climate variabilityintrinsic ocean variability |
| spellingShingle | Davide Zanchettin Kameswarrao Modali Wolfgang A. Müller Angelo Rubino Ross–Weddell Dipole Critical for Antarctic Sea Ice Predictability in MPI–ESM–HR Atmosphere Antarctic sea ice decadal climate predictions Antarctic dipole ENSO interannual climate variability intrinsic ocean variability |
| title | Ross–Weddell Dipole Critical for Antarctic Sea Ice Predictability in MPI–ESM–HR |
| title_full | Ross–Weddell Dipole Critical for Antarctic Sea Ice Predictability in MPI–ESM–HR |
| title_fullStr | Ross–Weddell Dipole Critical for Antarctic Sea Ice Predictability in MPI–ESM–HR |
| title_full_unstemmed | Ross–Weddell Dipole Critical for Antarctic Sea Ice Predictability in MPI–ESM–HR |
| title_short | Ross–Weddell Dipole Critical for Antarctic Sea Ice Predictability in MPI–ESM–HR |
| title_sort | ross weddell dipole critical for antarctic sea ice predictability in mpi esm hr |
| topic | Antarctic sea ice decadal climate predictions Antarctic dipole ENSO interannual climate variability intrinsic ocean variability |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/3/295 |
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