Impacts of Climate Change on Densities of the Urchin <i>Centrostephanus rodgersii</i> Vary among Marine Regions in Eastern Australia
The urchin <i>Centrostephanus rodgersii</i> is expanding its range southward in eastern Australia, which has been associated with negative ecological impacts, including shifts from kelp forests to barrens. However, limited analyses are available that examine the factors influencing its a...
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MDPI AG
2023-03-01
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Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/15/3/419 |
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author | Tom R. Davis Nathan A. Knott Curtis Champion Rachel Przeslawski |
author_facet | Tom R. Davis Nathan A. Knott Curtis Champion Rachel Przeslawski |
author_sort | Tom R. Davis |
collection | DOAJ |
description | The urchin <i>Centrostephanus rodgersii</i> is expanding its range southward in eastern Australia, which has been associated with negative ecological impacts, including shifts from kelp forests to barrens. However, limited analyses are available that examine the factors influencing its abundance and distribution across the entirety of this range. Here, we utilise data from 13,085 underwater visual census surveys, from 1992 to 2022, to develop an urchin density model for <i>C. rodgersii</i> across its historical and extending geographical range. We apply this model to examine whether <i>C. rodgersii</i> densities are increasing and to project future urchin densities by 2100 under IPCC climate scenario RCP 8.5. Significant increases in <i>C. rodgersii</i> densities were detected in data for the South-east marine region of Australia, which encompasses Tasmania, Victoria, and the far south coast of New South Wales (NSW) over the last 30 years. In the Temperate East marine region (encompassing Queensland and NSW waters to 36.6° S), however, no significant increases in densities were observed. Future projections indicated that further substantial increases in <i>C. rodgersii</i> densities are likely to occur in the South-east marine region and substantial reductions in most of the Temperate East marine region by 2100. Importantly, results indicate that current and future changes to <i>C. rodgersii</i> densities in Australia vary among marine regions. Therefore, the future ecological impacts of urchins on temperate ecosystems, including the formation of barrens, will also vary among regions. Consequently, management actions will need to differ among these regions, with the South-east marine region requiring mitigation of the impacts of increasing <i>C. rodgersii</i> densities, whereas the Temperate East marine region may need actions to preserve declining <i>C. rodgersii</i> populations. |
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language | English |
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spelling | doaj.art-f153624d186e4c999f9a28a187928cbf2023-11-17T10:38:22ZengMDPI AGDiversity1424-28182023-03-0115341910.3390/d15030419Impacts of Climate Change on Densities of the Urchin <i>Centrostephanus rodgersii</i> Vary among Marine Regions in Eastern AustraliaTom R. Davis0Nathan A. Knott1Curtis Champion2Rachel Przeslawski3Fisheries Research, Marine Ecosystems, NSW Department of Primary Industries, Locked Bag 1, Nelson Bay, NSW 2315, AustraliaFisheries Research, Marine Ecosystems, NSW Department of Primary Industries, Huskisson, NSW 2540, AustraliaFisheries Research, Marine Ecosystems, NSW Department of Primary Industries, Locked Bag 1, Nelson Bay, NSW 2315, AustraliaFisheries Research, Marine Ecosystems, NSW Department of Primary Industries, Huskisson, NSW 2540, AustraliaThe urchin <i>Centrostephanus rodgersii</i> is expanding its range southward in eastern Australia, which has been associated with negative ecological impacts, including shifts from kelp forests to barrens. However, limited analyses are available that examine the factors influencing its abundance and distribution across the entirety of this range. Here, we utilise data from 13,085 underwater visual census surveys, from 1992 to 2022, to develop an urchin density model for <i>C. rodgersii</i> across its historical and extending geographical range. We apply this model to examine whether <i>C. rodgersii</i> densities are increasing and to project future urchin densities by 2100 under IPCC climate scenario RCP 8.5. Significant increases in <i>C. rodgersii</i> densities were detected in data for the South-east marine region of Australia, which encompasses Tasmania, Victoria, and the far south coast of New South Wales (NSW) over the last 30 years. In the Temperate East marine region (encompassing Queensland and NSW waters to 36.6° S), however, no significant increases in densities were observed. Future projections indicated that further substantial increases in <i>C. rodgersii</i> densities are likely to occur in the South-east marine region and substantial reductions in most of the Temperate East marine region by 2100. Importantly, results indicate that current and future changes to <i>C. rodgersii</i> densities in Australia vary among marine regions. Therefore, the future ecological impacts of urchins on temperate ecosystems, including the formation of barrens, will also vary among regions. Consequently, management actions will need to differ among these regions, with the South-east marine region requiring mitigation of the impacts of increasing <i>C. rodgersii</i> densities, whereas the Temperate East marine region may need actions to preserve declining <i>C. rodgersii</i> populations.https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/15/3/419echinodermrange expansionspecies distribution model |
spellingShingle | Tom R. Davis Nathan A. Knott Curtis Champion Rachel Przeslawski Impacts of Climate Change on Densities of the Urchin <i>Centrostephanus rodgersii</i> Vary among Marine Regions in Eastern Australia Diversity echinoderm range expansion species distribution model |
title | Impacts of Climate Change on Densities of the Urchin <i>Centrostephanus rodgersii</i> Vary among Marine Regions in Eastern Australia |
title_full | Impacts of Climate Change on Densities of the Urchin <i>Centrostephanus rodgersii</i> Vary among Marine Regions in Eastern Australia |
title_fullStr | Impacts of Climate Change on Densities of the Urchin <i>Centrostephanus rodgersii</i> Vary among Marine Regions in Eastern Australia |
title_full_unstemmed | Impacts of Climate Change on Densities of the Urchin <i>Centrostephanus rodgersii</i> Vary among Marine Regions in Eastern Australia |
title_short | Impacts of Climate Change on Densities of the Urchin <i>Centrostephanus rodgersii</i> Vary among Marine Regions in Eastern Australia |
title_sort | impacts of climate change on densities of the urchin i centrostephanus rodgersii i vary among marine regions in eastern australia |
topic | echinoderm range expansion species distribution model |
url | https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/15/3/419 |
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