FORECASTING THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN MALAYSIA DURING COVID-19 PANDEMIC USING ARIMA AND ARFIMA MODELS
The unemployment issue is one of the most common problems faced by many countries around the world. The unemployment rates in developed countries often fluctuate throughout time. Similarly, Malaysia is also affected by the inconsistent unemployment rate especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. There...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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UiTM Press
2022-02-01
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| Series: | Malaysian Journal of Computing |
| Subjects: |
| _version_ | 1827632673056620544 |
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| author | Nur Afiqah Ismail Nurin Alya Ramzi Pauline Jin Wee Mah |
| author_facet | Nur Afiqah Ismail Nurin Alya Ramzi Pauline Jin Wee Mah |
| author_sort | Nur Afiqah Ismail |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The unemployment issue is one of the most common problems faced by many countries around the world. The unemployment rates in developed countries often fluctuate throughout time. Similarly, Malaysia is also affected by the inconsistent unemployment rate especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, in order to understand the trend better, ARIMA and ARFIMA were used to model and forecast the unemployment rate in Malaysia in this study. The dataset on the unemployment rate in Malaysia from January 2010 until July 2021 was obtained from Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) official portal. The best time series models found were ARIMA (2, 1, 2) and ARFIMA (0, −0.2339, 0). The performance of the models was evaluated using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). It appeared that the ARFIMA model emerged as a better forecast model since it had better performance compared to ARIMA in forecasting the unemployment rate in Malaysia. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T14:48:52Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f169b054649a4278861832c85ea6d199 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2600-8238 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T14:48:52Z |
| publishDate | 2022-02-01 |
| publisher | UiTM Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Malaysian Journal of Computing |
| spelling | doaj.art-f169b054649a4278861832c85ea6d1992023-11-26T16:16:05ZengUiTM PressMalaysian Journal of Computing2600-82382022-02-017198299410.24191/mjoc.v7i1.14641FORECASTING THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN MALAYSIA DURING COVID-19 PANDEMIC USING ARIMA AND ARFIMA MODELSNur Afiqah Ismail0Nurin Alya Ramzi1Pauline Jin Wee Mah2Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Science, Universiti Teknologi MARA, 40450 Shah Alam, Selangor, MalaysiaFaculty of Computer and Mathematical Science, Universiti Teknologi MARA, 40450 Shah Alam, Selangor, MalaysiaFaculty of Computer and Mathematical Science, Universiti Teknologi MARA, 40450 Shah Alam, Selangor, MalaysiaThe unemployment issue is one of the most common problems faced by many countries around the world. The unemployment rates in developed countries often fluctuate throughout time. Similarly, Malaysia is also affected by the inconsistent unemployment rate especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, in order to understand the trend better, ARIMA and ARFIMA were used to model and forecast the unemployment rate in Malaysia in this study. The dataset on the unemployment rate in Malaysia from January 2010 until July 2021 was obtained from Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) official portal. The best time series models found were ARIMA (2, 1, 2) and ARFIMA (0, −0.2339, 0). The performance of the models was evaluated using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). It appeared that the ARFIMA model emerged as a better forecast model since it had better performance compared to ARIMA in forecasting the unemployment rate in Malaysia.arfimaarimaunemployment rateunivariate time series |
| spellingShingle | Nur Afiqah Ismail Nurin Alya Ramzi Pauline Jin Wee Mah FORECASTING THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN MALAYSIA DURING COVID-19 PANDEMIC USING ARIMA AND ARFIMA MODELS Malaysian Journal of Computing arfima arima unemployment rate univariate time series |
| title | FORECASTING THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN MALAYSIA DURING COVID-19 PANDEMIC USING ARIMA AND ARFIMA MODELS |
| title_full | FORECASTING THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN MALAYSIA DURING COVID-19 PANDEMIC USING ARIMA AND ARFIMA MODELS |
| title_fullStr | FORECASTING THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN MALAYSIA DURING COVID-19 PANDEMIC USING ARIMA AND ARFIMA MODELS |
| title_full_unstemmed | FORECASTING THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN MALAYSIA DURING COVID-19 PANDEMIC USING ARIMA AND ARFIMA MODELS |
| title_short | FORECASTING THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN MALAYSIA DURING COVID-19 PANDEMIC USING ARIMA AND ARFIMA MODELS |
| title_sort | forecasting the unemployment rate in malaysia during covid 19 pandemic using arima and arfima models |
| topic | arfima arima unemployment rate univariate time series |
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