How Containment Can Effectively Suppress the Outbreak of COVID-19: A Mathematical Modeling
In this paper, the aim is to capture the global pandemic of COVID-19 with parameters that consider the interactions among individuals by proposing a mathematical model. The introduction of a parsimonious model captures both the isolation of symptomatic infected individuals and population lockdown pr...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-08-01
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| Series: | Axioms |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2075-1680/10/3/204 |
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| author | Bootan Rahman Sarbaz H. A. Khoshnaw Grace O. Agaba Fahad Al Basir |
| author_facet | Bootan Rahman Sarbaz H. A. Khoshnaw Grace O. Agaba Fahad Al Basir |
| author_sort | Bootan Rahman |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this paper, the aim is to capture the global pandemic of COVID-19 with parameters that consider the interactions among individuals by proposing a mathematical model. The introduction of a parsimonious model captures both the isolation of symptomatic infected individuals and population lockdown practices in response to containment policies. Local stability and basic reproduction numbers are analyzed. Local sensitivity indices of the parameters of the proposed model are calculated, using the non-normalization, half-normalization, and full-normalization techniques. Numerical investigations show that the dynamics of the system depend on the model parameters. The infection transmission rate (as a function of the lockdown parameter) for both reported and unreported symptomatic infected peoples is a significant parameter in spreading the infection. A nationwide public lockdown decreases the number of infected cases and stops the pandemic’s peak from occurring. The results obtained from this study are beneficial worldwide for developing different COVID-19 management programs. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T07:53:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f18ce781680f4072bbdf14d0c568219f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2075-1680 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T07:53:44Z |
| publishDate | 2021-08-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Axioms |
| spelling | doaj.art-f18ce781680f4072bbdf14d0c568219f2023-11-22T12:02:56ZengMDPI AGAxioms2075-16802021-08-0110320410.3390/axioms10030204How Containment Can Effectively Suppress the Outbreak of COVID-19: A Mathematical ModelingBootan Rahman0Sarbaz H. A. Khoshnaw1Grace O. Agaba2Fahad Al Basir3Mathematics Unit, School of Science and Engineering, University of Kurdistan Hewlêr (UKH), Erbil 44001, IraqDepartment of Mathematics, University of Raparin, Ranya 46012, IraqDepartment of Mathematics and Computer Science, Benue State University, Makurdi P.M.B. 102119, NigeriaDepartment of Mathematics, Asansol Girls’ College, Asansol 713304, IndiaIn this paper, the aim is to capture the global pandemic of COVID-19 with parameters that consider the interactions among individuals by proposing a mathematical model. The introduction of a parsimonious model captures both the isolation of symptomatic infected individuals and population lockdown practices in response to containment policies. Local stability and basic reproduction numbers are analyzed. Local sensitivity indices of the parameters of the proposed model are calculated, using the non-normalization, half-normalization, and full-normalization techniques. Numerical investigations show that the dynamics of the system depend on the model parameters. The infection transmission rate (as a function of the lockdown parameter) for both reported and unreported symptomatic infected peoples is a significant parameter in spreading the infection. A nationwide public lockdown decreases the number of infected cases and stops the pandemic’s peak from occurring. The results obtained from this study are beneficial worldwide for developing different COVID-19 management programs.https://www.mdpi.com/2075-1680/10/3/204SEIHR modellockdownepidemic peakbasic reproductive numbercontainment policiessensitivity analysis |
| spellingShingle | Bootan Rahman Sarbaz H. A. Khoshnaw Grace O. Agaba Fahad Al Basir How Containment Can Effectively Suppress the Outbreak of COVID-19: A Mathematical Modeling Axioms SEIHR model lockdown epidemic peak basic reproductive number containment policies sensitivity analysis |
| title | How Containment Can Effectively Suppress the Outbreak of COVID-19: A Mathematical Modeling |
| title_full | How Containment Can Effectively Suppress the Outbreak of COVID-19: A Mathematical Modeling |
| title_fullStr | How Containment Can Effectively Suppress the Outbreak of COVID-19: A Mathematical Modeling |
| title_full_unstemmed | How Containment Can Effectively Suppress the Outbreak of COVID-19: A Mathematical Modeling |
| title_short | How Containment Can Effectively Suppress the Outbreak of COVID-19: A Mathematical Modeling |
| title_sort | how containment can effectively suppress the outbreak of covid 19 a mathematical modeling |
| topic | SEIHR model lockdown epidemic peak basic reproductive number containment policies sensitivity analysis |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2075-1680/10/3/204 |
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