Statistical Forecast of Daily Maximum Air Temperature in Arid Areas at Summertime
Based on historical observations of summers for the period from 2004 to 2018 with a focus on daily maximum and minimum air temperatures and wind speed recorded at 0600 GMT, a non-linear regression hypothesis is developed for forecasting daily maximum air temperature (Tmax) in arid areas such as Bagh...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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ITB Journal Publisher
2020-12-01
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| Series: | Journal of Mathematical and Fundamental Sciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://journals.itb.ac.id/index.php/jmfs/article/view/11291 |
| _version_ | 1819282072403968000 |
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| author | Monim Al-Jiboori Mahmoud Jawad Abu Al-Shaeer Ahemd S. Hassan |
| author_facet | Monim Al-Jiboori Mahmoud Jawad Abu Al-Shaeer Ahemd S. Hassan |
| author_sort | Monim Al-Jiboori |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Based on historical observations of summers for the period from 2004 to 2018 with a focus on daily maximum and minimum air temperatures and wind speed recorded at 0600 GMT, a non-linear regression hypothesis is developed for forecasting daily maximum air temperature (Tmax) in arid areas such as Baghdad International airport station, which has a hot climate with no cloud cover or rain. Observations with dust storm events were excluded, thus this hypothesis could be used to predict daily Tmax on any day during summers characterized by fair weather. Using mean annual daily temperature range, daily minimum temperature, and the trend of maximum temperature with wind speed, Tmax was forecasted and then compared to those recorded by meteorological instruments. To improve the accuracy of the hypothesis, daily forecast errors, bias, and mean absolute error were analyzed to detect their characteristics through calculating relative frequencies of occurrence. At the end of this analysis, a value of (-0.45ºC) was added to the hypothesis as a bias term. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-24T01:09:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f1948abbac8a40c4ae7572b4debb3104 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2337-5760 2338-5510 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-24T01:09:46Z |
| publishDate | 2020-12-01 |
| publisher | ITB Journal Publisher |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Mathematical and Fundamental Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-f1948abbac8a40c4ae7572b4debb31042022-12-21T17:23:02ZengITB Journal PublisherJournal of Mathematical and Fundamental Sciences2337-57602338-55102020-12-0152310.5614/j.math.fund.sci.2020.52.3.8Statistical Forecast of Daily Maximum Air Temperature in Arid Areas at SummertimeMonim Al-Jiboori0Mahmoud Jawad Abu Al-Shaeer1Ahemd S. Hassan2Atmospheric Sciences Department, College of Sciences, Mustansiriyah UniversityAl-Rafidain University College, Waziriya, BaghdadAl-Rafidain University College, Waziriya, BaghdadBased on historical observations of summers for the period from 2004 to 2018 with a focus on daily maximum and minimum air temperatures and wind speed recorded at 0600 GMT, a non-linear regression hypothesis is developed for forecasting daily maximum air temperature (Tmax) in arid areas such as Baghdad International airport station, which has a hot climate with no cloud cover or rain. Observations with dust storm events were excluded, thus this hypothesis could be used to predict daily Tmax on any day during summers characterized by fair weather. Using mean annual daily temperature range, daily minimum temperature, and the trend of maximum temperature with wind speed, Tmax was forecasted and then compared to those recorded by meteorological instruments. To improve the accuracy of the hypothesis, daily forecast errors, bias, and mean absolute error were analyzed to detect their characteristics through calculating relative frequencies of occurrence. At the end of this analysis, a value of (-0.45ºC) was added to the hypothesis as a bias term.https://journals.itb.ac.id/index.php/jmfs/article/view/11291biasdaily temperature rangemaximum air temperaturemean absolute errornon-linear regression equation |
| spellingShingle | Monim Al-Jiboori Mahmoud Jawad Abu Al-Shaeer Ahemd S. Hassan Statistical Forecast of Daily Maximum Air Temperature in Arid Areas at Summertime Journal of Mathematical and Fundamental Sciences bias daily temperature range maximum air temperature mean absolute error non-linear regression equation |
| title | Statistical Forecast of Daily Maximum Air Temperature in Arid Areas at Summertime |
| title_full | Statistical Forecast of Daily Maximum Air Temperature in Arid Areas at Summertime |
| title_fullStr | Statistical Forecast of Daily Maximum Air Temperature in Arid Areas at Summertime |
| title_full_unstemmed | Statistical Forecast of Daily Maximum Air Temperature in Arid Areas at Summertime |
| title_short | Statistical Forecast of Daily Maximum Air Temperature in Arid Areas at Summertime |
| title_sort | statistical forecast of daily maximum air temperature in arid areas at summertime |
| topic | bias daily temperature range maximum air temperature mean absolute error non-linear regression equation |
| url | https://journals.itb.ac.id/index.php/jmfs/article/view/11291 |
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