Towards Improved Flash Flood Forecasting over Dire Dawa, Ethiopia Using WRF-Hydro
Flash floods are increasingly frequent worldwide. Recent flooding in eastern Ethiopia resulted in casualties, destruction of property and interruptions of service. National flash flood forecasts made today primarily consider precipitation, putting less emphasis on surface processes. Enhancing accura...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-09-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/18/3262 |
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| author | Addisu G. Semie Gulilat T. Diro Teferi Demissie Yonas M. Yigezu Binyam Hailu |
| author_facet | Addisu G. Semie Gulilat T. Diro Teferi Demissie Yonas M. Yigezu Binyam Hailu |
| author_sort | Addisu G. Semie |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Flash floods are increasingly frequent worldwide. Recent flooding in eastern Ethiopia resulted in casualties, destruction of property and interruptions of service. National flash flood forecasts made today primarily consider precipitation, putting less emphasis on surface processes. Enhancing accurate flash flood forecasts by accounting for surface processes and hydrological models together with a deeper understanding of heavy precipitation mechanisms is of paramount importance. To this end, an uncoupled WRF-Hydro model was calibrated for eastern Ethiopia to simulate extreme floods. Sensitivity analysis for August 2006 showed that infiltration runoff, hydraulic soil conductivity and saturated volumetric soil moisture with parameter values of 0.1, 1.5 and 1.0 produced realistic streamflow distribution. Extreme floods in March 2005 and April 2007 were further studied. The results showed that WRF-Hydro replicates temporal and spatial patterns well. Analysis using observational/reanalysis data revealed associated physical processes. Precipitation during these events exceeded long-term climatology and spanned wider areas in eastern Ethiopia. These heavy precipitation events are associated with strong upper-level westerly jet streams and rainfall-conducive circulation anomalies at lower levels. Positive outcomes from WRF-Hydro suggest operational implementation for flood monitoring and early warning systems in forecasting centers. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T21:52:01Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f19604770a184fdfade988e5b524fc74 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T21:52:01Z |
| publishDate | 2023-09-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-f19604770a184fdfade988e5b524fc742023-11-19T13:26:08ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412023-09-011518326210.3390/w15183262Towards Improved Flash Flood Forecasting over Dire Dawa, Ethiopia Using WRF-HydroAddisu G. Semie0Gulilat T. Diro1Teferi Demissie2Yonas M. Yigezu3Binyam Hailu4Computational Data Science Program, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa 1176, EthiopiaESCER Center, University of Quebec at Montreal, 201 President-Kennedy Avenue, Montreal, QC H2X 3Y7, CanadaInternational Livestock Research Institute, Addis Ababa 5689, EthiopiaComputational Data Science Program, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa 1176, EthiopiaComputational Data Science Program, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa 1176, EthiopiaFlash floods are increasingly frequent worldwide. Recent flooding in eastern Ethiopia resulted in casualties, destruction of property and interruptions of service. National flash flood forecasts made today primarily consider precipitation, putting less emphasis on surface processes. Enhancing accurate flash flood forecasts by accounting for surface processes and hydrological models together with a deeper understanding of heavy precipitation mechanisms is of paramount importance. To this end, an uncoupled WRF-Hydro model was calibrated for eastern Ethiopia to simulate extreme floods. Sensitivity analysis for August 2006 showed that infiltration runoff, hydraulic soil conductivity and saturated volumetric soil moisture with parameter values of 0.1, 1.5 and 1.0 produced realistic streamflow distribution. Extreme floods in March 2005 and April 2007 were further studied. The results showed that WRF-Hydro replicates temporal and spatial patterns well. Analysis using observational/reanalysis data revealed associated physical processes. Precipitation during these events exceeded long-term climatology and spanned wider areas in eastern Ethiopia. These heavy precipitation events are associated with strong upper-level westerly jet streams and rainfall-conducive circulation anomalies at lower levels. Positive outcomes from WRF-Hydro suggest operational implementation for flood monitoring and early warning systems in forecasting centers.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/18/3262WRF-Hydrofloodextreme eventsEthiopia |
| spellingShingle | Addisu G. Semie Gulilat T. Diro Teferi Demissie Yonas M. Yigezu Binyam Hailu Towards Improved Flash Flood Forecasting over Dire Dawa, Ethiopia Using WRF-Hydro Water WRF-Hydro flood extreme events Ethiopia |
| title | Towards Improved Flash Flood Forecasting over Dire Dawa, Ethiopia Using WRF-Hydro |
| title_full | Towards Improved Flash Flood Forecasting over Dire Dawa, Ethiopia Using WRF-Hydro |
| title_fullStr | Towards Improved Flash Flood Forecasting over Dire Dawa, Ethiopia Using WRF-Hydro |
| title_full_unstemmed | Towards Improved Flash Flood Forecasting over Dire Dawa, Ethiopia Using WRF-Hydro |
| title_short | Towards Improved Flash Flood Forecasting over Dire Dawa, Ethiopia Using WRF-Hydro |
| title_sort | towards improved flash flood forecasting over dire dawa ethiopia using wrf hydro |
| topic | WRF-Hydro flood extreme events Ethiopia |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/18/3262 |
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