A Method for Assessing the Impact of Changes in Demand for Coal on the Structure of Coal Grades Produced by Mines
Due to the withdrawal of coal from power generation in the EU, mining companies in Poland are forced to adapt their production to the decreasing demand. Forecasting the volume of demand plays an important role in planning the volume of the mine’s output. The demand for coal is constantly changing, w...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-11-01
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| Series: | Energies |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/21/7111 |
| _version_ | 1797512607167414272 |
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| author | Dariusz Fuksa |
| author_facet | Dariusz Fuksa |
| author_sort | Dariusz Fuksa |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Due to the withdrawal of coal from power generation in the EU, mining companies in Poland are forced to adapt their production to the decreasing demand. Forecasting the volume of demand plays an important role in planning the volume of the mine’s output. The demand for coal is constantly changing, with a downward trend. This article presents a method that allows to assess the impact of the variable demand on mine profits and on the volumes of sales of individual coal grades. The proposed method is based on the Monte Carlo simulation and on a solution consisting of the optimization of the production and sales of coal by the mining company (the SIMPLEX algorithm). By using the Monte Carlo simulation to forecast the demand, unlike other commonly used methods, a sufficiently large set of real situations that may occur in the future can be obtained. The results allow us to conclude the extent of desirable adjustment of the structure of the mine’s production to the requirements of its consumers, as well as to predict in which direction these changes will proceed and with what probability. The usefulness of the developed method has been verified on the example of an existing hard coal mine. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T06:04:10Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f19e170a56e749fab138c69bcfefb0b6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1996-1073 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T06:04:10Z |
| publishDate | 2021-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energies |
| spelling | doaj.art-f19e170a56e749fab138c69bcfefb0b62023-11-22T20:43:40ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732021-11-011421711110.3390/en14217111A Method for Assessing the Impact of Changes in Demand for Coal on the Structure of Coal Grades Produced by MinesDariusz Fuksa0Faculty of Civil Engineering and Resource Management, AGH University of Science and Technology, Mickiewicza 30 Av., 30-059 Kraków, PolandDue to the withdrawal of coal from power generation in the EU, mining companies in Poland are forced to adapt their production to the decreasing demand. Forecasting the volume of demand plays an important role in planning the volume of the mine’s output. The demand for coal is constantly changing, with a downward trend. This article presents a method that allows to assess the impact of the variable demand on mine profits and on the volumes of sales of individual coal grades. The proposed method is based on the Monte Carlo simulation and on a solution consisting of the optimization of the production and sales of coal by the mining company (the SIMPLEX algorithm). By using the Monte Carlo simulation to forecast the demand, unlike other commonly used methods, a sufficiently large set of real situations that may occur in the future can be obtained. The results allow us to conclude the extent of desirable adjustment of the structure of the mine’s production to the requirements of its consumers, as well as to predict in which direction these changes will proceed and with what probability. The usefulness of the developed method has been verified on the example of an existing hard coal mine.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/21/7111algorithm simplexMonte Carlo simulation |
| spellingShingle | Dariusz Fuksa A Method for Assessing the Impact of Changes in Demand for Coal on the Structure of Coal Grades Produced by Mines Energies algorithm simplex Monte Carlo simulation |
| title | A Method for Assessing the Impact of Changes in Demand for Coal on the Structure of Coal Grades Produced by Mines |
| title_full | A Method for Assessing the Impact of Changes in Demand for Coal on the Structure of Coal Grades Produced by Mines |
| title_fullStr | A Method for Assessing the Impact of Changes in Demand for Coal on the Structure of Coal Grades Produced by Mines |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Method for Assessing the Impact of Changes in Demand for Coal on the Structure of Coal Grades Produced by Mines |
| title_short | A Method for Assessing the Impact of Changes in Demand for Coal on the Structure of Coal Grades Produced by Mines |
| title_sort | method for assessing the impact of changes in demand for coal on the structure of coal grades produced by mines |
| topic | algorithm simplex Monte Carlo simulation |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/21/7111 |
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