Coral Reef Exposure to Damaging Tropical Cyclone Waves in a Warming Climate
Abstract Tropical cyclones generate large waves that physically damage coral communities and are commonly cited as a worsening threat to coral reefs under climate change. However, beyond projections of ocean basin‐scale changes in cyclone intensity, the other determinants of future coral reef damage...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2022-08-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002600 |
| _version_ | 1818494213087559680 |
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| author | Adele M. Dixon Marji Puotinen Hamish A. Ramsay Maria Beger |
| author_facet | Adele M. Dixon Marji Puotinen Hamish A. Ramsay Maria Beger |
| author_sort | Adele M. Dixon |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Tropical cyclones generate large waves that physically damage coral communities and are commonly cited as a worsening threat to coral reefs under climate change. However, beyond projections of ocean basin‐scale changes in cyclone intensity, the other determinants of future coral reef damage such as cyclone size and duration remain uncertain. Here, we determine the extent to which downscaled cyclones represent observed cyclone characteristics that influence wave damage to Australian coral reef regions. We then investigate mid‐century (2040–2060) and end of century (2080–2100) downscaled tracks to assess whether cyclone characteristics will change with future warming under a high‐emissions scenario. We find that spatial uncertainties in downscaled cyclogenesis and track positions limit estimates of reef damage for individual coral reefs and regions. Further, the models are unable to reproduce the most reef damaging cyclones for any of the regions. The downscaled tracks capture observed cyclone characteristics, such as size, impacting the Great Barrier Reef well, but perform poorly for the Northern Territory, with mixed performance for the Coral Sea and Western Australia. We find no clear evidence that cyclones will cause more damage to Australian coral reef regions in the future, at least based on the climate models and downscaling approach examined here. There is increasing interest in using tropical cyclone projections to assess future coral reef exposure to damaging waves. We recommend caution when interpreting such projections due to large uncertainty in the mechanisms that influence reef damaging tropical cyclone characteristics and how these will change with future warming. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T18:03:36Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f1ac229c445d46c0bbd334cee09a0a0d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T18:03:36Z |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj.art-f1ac229c445d46c0bbd334cee09a0a0d2022-12-22T01:38:42ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772022-08-01108n/an/a10.1029/2021EF002600Coral Reef Exposure to Damaging Tropical Cyclone Waves in a Warming ClimateAdele M. Dixon0Marji Puotinen1Hamish A. Ramsay2Maria Beger3School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences University of Leeds Leeds UKAustralian Institute of Marine Science Crawley WA AustraliaCSIRO, Oceans and Atmosphere Aspendale VIC AustraliaSchool of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences University of Leeds Leeds UKAbstract Tropical cyclones generate large waves that physically damage coral communities and are commonly cited as a worsening threat to coral reefs under climate change. However, beyond projections of ocean basin‐scale changes in cyclone intensity, the other determinants of future coral reef damage such as cyclone size and duration remain uncertain. Here, we determine the extent to which downscaled cyclones represent observed cyclone characteristics that influence wave damage to Australian coral reef regions. We then investigate mid‐century (2040–2060) and end of century (2080–2100) downscaled tracks to assess whether cyclone characteristics will change with future warming under a high‐emissions scenario. We find that spatial uncertainties in downscaled cyclogenesis and track positions limit estimates of reef damage for individual coral reefs and regions. Further, the models are unable to reproduce the most reef damaging cyclones for any of the regions. The downscaled tracks capture observed cyclone characteristics, such as size, impacting the Great Barrier Reef well, but perform poorly for the Northern Territory, with mixed performance for the Coral Sea and Western Australia. We find no clear evidence that cyclones will cause more damage to Australian coral reef regions in the future, at least based on the climate models and downscaling approach examined here. There is increasing interest in using tropical cyclone projections to assess future coral reef exposure to damaging waves. We recommend caution when interpreting such projections due to large uncertainty in the mechanisms that influence reef damaging tropical cyclone characteristics and how these will change with future warming.https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002600climate changeclimate modelscoral reefsmodel evaluationtropical cycloneswave damage |
| spellingShingle | Adele M. Dixon Marji Puotinen Hamish A. Ramsay Maria Beger Coral Reef Exposure to Damaging Tropical Cyclone Waves in a Warming Climate Earth's Future climate change climate models coral reefs model evaluation tropical cyclones wave damage |
| title | Coral Reef Exposure to Damaging Tropical Cyclone Waves in a Warming Climate |
| title_full | Coral Reef Exposure to Damaging Tropical Cyclone Waves in a Warming Climate |
| title_fullStr | Coral Reef Exposure to Damaging Tropical Cyclone Waves in a Warming Climate |
| title_full_unstemmed | Coral Reef Exposure to Damaging Tropical Cyclone Waves in a Warming Climate |
| title_short | Coral Reef Exposure to Damaging Tropical Cyclone Waves in a Warming Climate |
| title_sort | coral reef exposure to damaging tropical cyclone waves in a warming climate |
| topic | climate change climate models coral reefs model evaluation tropical cyclones wave damage |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002600 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT adelemdixon coralreefexposuretodamagingtropicalcyclonewavesinawarmingclimate AT marjipuotinen coralreefexposuretodamagingtropicalcyclonewavesinawarmingclimate AT hamisharamsay coralreefexposuretodamagingtropicalcyclonewavesinawarmingclimate AT mariabeger coralreefexposuretodamagingtropicalcyclonewavesinawarmingclimate |