Ecosystem service valuation and multi-scenario simulation in the Ebinur Lake Basin using a coupled GMOP-PLUS model
Abstract The Ebinur Lake Basin is an ecologically sensitive area in an arid region. Investigating its land use and land cover (LULC) change and assessing and predicting its ecosystem service value (ESV) are of great importance for the stability of the basin's socioeconomic development and susta...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-03-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-55763-6 |
| _version_ | 1797274902868262912 |
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| author | Hua Tang Abudureheman Halike Kaixuan Yao Qianqian Wei Lei Yao Buweiayixiemu Tuheti Jianmei Luo Yuefan Duan |
| author_facet | Hua Tang Abudureheman Halike Kaixuan Yao Qianqian Wei Lei Yao Buweiayixiemu Tuheti Jianmei Luo Yuefan Duan |
| author_sort | Hua Tang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The Ebinur Lake Basin is an ecologically sensitive area in an arid region. Investigating its land use and land cover (LULC) change and assessing and predicting its ecosystem service value (ESV) are of great importance for the stability of the basin's socioeconomic development and sustainable development of its ecological environment. Based on LULC data from 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, we assessed the ESV of the Ebinur Lake Basin and coupled the grey multi-objective optimization model with the patch generation land use simulation model to predict ESV changes in 2035 under four scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU) development, rapid economic development (RED), ecological protection (ELP), and ecological–economic balance (EEB). The results show that from 1990 to 2020, the basin was dominated by grassland (51.23%) and unused land (27.6%), with a continuous decrease in unused land and an increase in cultivated land. In thirty years, the total ESV of the study area increased from 18.62 billion to 67.28 billion yuan, with regulation and support services being the dominant functions. By 2035, cultivated land increased while unused land decreased in all four scenarios compared with that in 2020. The total ESV in 2035 under the BAU, RED, ELP, and EEB scenarios was 68.83 billion, 64.47 billion, 67.99 billion, and 66.79 billion yuan, respectively. In the RED and EEB scenarios, ESV decreased by 2.81 billion and 0.49 billion yuan, respectively. In the BAU scenario, provisioning and regulation services increased by 6.05% and 2.93%, respectively. The ELP scenario, focusing on ecological and environmental protection, saw an increase in ESV for all services. This paper can assist policymakers in optimizing land use allocation and provide scientific support for the formulation of land use strategies and sustainable ecological and environmental development in the inland river basins of arid regions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T15:04:49Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f1b5e3e2916d4719bbaf9edcc4c53269 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T15:04:49Z |
| publishDate | 2024-03-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-f1b5e3e2916d4719bbaf9edcc4c532692024-03-05T18:57:24ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222024-03-0114111710.1038/s41598-024-55763-6Ecosystem service valuation and multi-scenario simulation in the Ebinur Lake Basin using a coupled GMOP-PLUS modelHua Tang0Abudureheman Halike1Kaixuan Yao2Qianqian Wei3Lei Yao4Buweiayixiemu Tuheti5Jianmei Luo6Yuefan Duan7College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang UniversityCollege of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang UniversityCollege of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang UniversityCollege of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang UniversityCollege of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang UniversityCollege of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang UniversityCollege of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang UniversityCollege of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang UniversityAbstract The Ebinur Lake Basin is an ecologically sensitive area in an arid region. Investigating its land use and land cover (LULC) change and assessing and predicting its ecosystem service value (ESV) are of great importance for the stability of the basin's socioeconomic development and sustainable development of its ecological environment. Based on LULC data from 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, we assessed the ESV of the Ebinur Lake Basin and coupled the grey multi-objective optimization model with the patch generation land use simulation model to predict ESV changes in 2035 under four scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU) development, rapid economic development (RED), ecological protection (ELP), and ecological–economic balance (EEB). The results show that from 1990 to 2020, the basin was dominated by grassland (51.23%) and unused land (27.6%), with a continuous decrease in unused land and an increase in cultivated land. In thirty years, the total ESV of the study area increased from 18.62 billion to 67.28 billion yuan, with regulation and support services being the dominant functions. By 2035, cultivated land increased while unused land decreased in all four scenarios compared with that in 2020. The total ESV in 2035 under the BAU, RED, ELP, and EEB scenarios was 68.83 billion, 64.47 billion, 67.99 billion, and 66.79 billion yuan, respectively. In the RED and EEB scenarios, ESV decreased by 2.81 billion and 0.49 billion yuan, respectively. In the BAU scenario, provisioning and regulation services increased by 6.05% and 2.93%, respectively. The ELP scenario, focusing on ecological and environmental protection, saw an increase in ESV for all services. This paper can assist policymakers in optimizing land use allocation and provide scientific support for the formulation of land use strategies and sustainable ecological and environmental development in the inland river basins of arid regions.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-55763-6Ecosystem service valueLand use and land cover changeGMOP-PLUS modelMulti-scenario simulationEbinur Lake basin |
| spellingShingle | Hua Tang Abudureheman Halike Kaixuan Yao Qianqian Wei Lei Yao Buweiayixiemu Tuheti Jianmei Luo Yuefan Duan Ecosystem service valuation and multi-scenario simulation in the Ebinur Lake Basin using a coupled GMOP-PLUS model Scientific Reports Ecosystem service value Land use and land cover change GMOP-PLUS model Multi-scenario simulation Ebinur Lake basin |
| title | Ecosystem service valuation and multi-scenario simulation in the Ebinur Lake Basin using a coupled GMOP-PLUS model |
| title_full | Ecosystem service valuation and multi-scenario simulation in the Ebinur Lake Basin using a coupled GMOP-PLUS model |
| title_fullStr | Ecosystem service valuation and multi-scenario simulation in the Ebinur Lake Basin using a coupled GMOP-PLUS model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Ecosystem service valuation and multi-scenario simulation in the Ebinur Lake Basin using a coupled GMOP-PLUS model |
| title_short | Ecosystem service valuation and multi-scenario simulation in the Ebinur Lake Basin using a coupled GMOP-PLUS model |
| title_sort | ecosystem service valuation and multi scenario simulation in the ebinur lake basin using a coupled gmop plus model |
| topic | Ecosystem service value Land use and land cover change GMOP-PLUS model Multi-scenario simulation Ebinur Lake basin |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-55763-6 |
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