Emerging dynamics from high-resolution spatial numerical epidemics
Simulating nationwide realistic individual movements with a detailed geographical structure can help optimise public health policies. However, existing tools have limited resolution or can only account for a limited number of agents. We introduce Epidemap, a new framework that can capture the daily...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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eLife Sciences Publications Ltd
2021-10-01
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| Series: | eLife |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://elifesciences.org/articles/71417 |
| _version_ | 1818024119351902208 |
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| author | Olivier Thomine Samuel Alizon Corentin Boennec Marc Barthelemy Mircea Sofonea |
| author_facet | Olivier Thomine Samuel Alizon Corentin Boennec Marc Barthelemy Mircea Sofonea |
| author_sort | Olivier Thomine |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Simulating nationwide realistic individual movements with a detailed geographical structure can help optimise public health policies. However, existing tools have limited resolution or can only account for a limited number of agents. We introduce Epidemap, a new framework that can capture the daily movement of more than 60 million people in a country at a building-level resolution in a realistic and computationally efficient way. By applying it to the case of an infectious disease spreading in France, we uncover hitherto neglected effects, such as the emergence of two distinct peaks in the daily number of cases or the importance of local density in the timing of arrival of the epidemic. Finally, we show that the importance of super-spreading events strongly varies over time. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T03:55:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f1bc8168d793401ab05ee1a3df33ab1f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2050-084X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T03:55:09Z |
| publishDate | 2021-10-01 |
| publisher | eLife Sciences Publications Ltd |
| record_format | Article |
| series | eLife |
| spelling | doaj.art-f1bc8168d793401ab05ee1a3df33ab1f2022-12-22T02:03:08ZengeLife Sciences Publications LtdeLife2050-084X2021-10-011010.7554/eLife.71417Emerging dynamics from high-resolution spatial numerical epidemicsOlivier Thomine0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4847-3224Samuel Alizon1Corentin Boennec2Marc Barthelemy3Mircea Sofonea4LIS UMR 7020 CNRS, Aix Marseille University, Marseille, FranceMIVEGEC, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, Montpellier, FranceMIVEGEC, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, Montpellier, FranceInstitut de Physique Théorique, CEA, Saclay, FranceMIVEGEC, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, Montpellier, FranceSimulating nationwide realistic individual movements with a detailed geographical structure can help optimise public health policies. However, existing tools have limited resolution or can only account for a limited number of agents. We introduce Epidemap, a new framework that can capture the daily movement of more than 60 million people in a country at a building-level resolution in a realistic and computationally efficient way. By applying it to the case of an infectious disease spreading in France, we uncover hitherto neglected effects, such as the emergence of two distinct peaks in the daily number of cases or the importance of local density in the timing of arrival of the epidemic. Finally, we show that the importance of super-spreading events strongly varies over time.https://elifesciences.org/articles/71417high perfomance computingparallel computing |
| spellingShingle | Olivier Thomine Samuel Alizon Corentin Boennec Marc Barthelemy Mircea Sofonea Emerging dynamics from high-resolution spatial numerical epidemics eLife high perfomance computing parallel computing |
| title | Emerging dynamics from high-resolution spatial numerical epidemics |
| title_full | Emerging dynamics from high-resolution spatial numerical epidemics |
| title_fullStr | Emerging dynamics from high-resolution spatial numerical epidemics |
| title_full_unstemmed | Emerging dynamics from high-resolution spatial numerical epidemics |
| title_short | Emerging dynamics from high-resolution spatial numerical epidemics |
| title_sort | emerging dynamics from high resolution spatial numerical epidemics |
| topic | high perfomance computing parallel computing |
| url | https://elifesciences.org/articles/71417 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT olivierthomine emergingdynamicsfromhighresolutionspatialnumericalepidemics AT samuelalizon emergingdynamicsfromhighresolutionspatialnumericalepidemics AT corentinboennec emergingdynamicsfromhighresolutionspatialnumericalepidemics AT marcbarthelemy emergingdynamicsfromhighresolutionspatialnumericalepidemics AT mirceasofonea emergingdynamicsfromhighresolutionspatialnumericalepidemics |