Está a economia americana superaquecida?
This paper presents a diagnosis ofthe macro conditions ofthe US Economy. It analyses two possible scenarios. In the first, technological developments created preconditions for a rapid and sustainable economic growth with price stability. In the second, nothing essential has changed.. The paper anal...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Portuguese |
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Universidade de São Paulo
2000-04-01
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| Series: | Economia Aplicada |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/218778 |
| _version_ | 1797629314138636288 |
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| author | Ruben D. Almonacid HumbertoF. S. Spolador |
| author_facet | Ruben D. Almonacid HumbertoF. S. Spolador |
| author_sort | Ruben D. Almonacid |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
This paper presents a diagnosis ofthe macro conditions ofthe US Economy. It analyses two possible scenarios. In the first, technological developments created preconditions for a rapid and sustainable economic growth with price stability. In the second, nothing essential has changed.. The paper analyze a series representative of production, measured by per capita real income and a series representative of total expenditures. We estimate an excess of actual output over its full employment level of almost 6% and an excess of expenditures over its equilibrium level of almost 5%, both when measured by the trade and the current account deficits. Two variables appear to explain this behavior of economic agents. One variable indicative of the level of excess wealth, here approximated by the overvaluation ofthe Dow Jones Index and one to capture the degree of competitiveness of the US economy. We concluded that by the end of 1999, the value of the Dow Jones Index was more than 60% above its equilibrium level. The overvaluation of the stock exchange and of the US dollar would explain the excess of production and of expenditures over their equilibrium level.
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| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T10:52:40Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f1f90793fc6d4b32952806c27a606451 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1413-8050 1980-5330 |
| language | Portuguese |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T10:52:40Z |
| publishDate | 2000-04-01 |
| publisher | Universidade de São Paulo |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Economia Aplicada |
| spelling | doaj.art-f1f90793fc6d4b32952806c27a6064512023-11-13T16:10:24ZporUniversidade de São PauloEconomia Aplicada1413-80501980-53302000-04-0142Está a economia americana superaquecida?Ruben D. Almonacid0HumbertoF. S. Spolador1Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e ContabilidadeUniversidade de São Paulo. Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz This paper presents a diagnosis ofthe macro conditions ofthe US Economy. It analyses two possible scenarios. In the first, technological developments created preconditions for a rapid and sustainable economic growth with price stability. In the second, nothing essential has changed.. The paper analyze a series representative of production, measured by per capita real income and a series representative of total expenditures. We estimate an excess of actual output over its full employment level of almost 6% and an excess of expenditures over its equilibrium level of almost 5%, both when measured by the trade and the current account deficits. Two variables appear to explain this behavior of economic agents. One variable indicative of the level of excess wealth, here approximated by the overvaluation ofthe Dow Jones Index and one to capture the degree of competitiveness of the US economy. We concluded that by the end of 1999, the value of the Dow Jones Index was more than 60% above its equilibrium level. The overvaluation of the stock exchange and of the US dollar would explain the excess of production and of expenditures over their equilibrium level. https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/218778equilibrium level of output and expendituresovervaluation of assets and external competitiveness |
| spellingShingle | Ruben D. Almonacid HumbertoF. S. Spolador Está a economia americana superaquecida? Economia Aplicada equilibrium level of output and expenditures overvaluation of assets and external competitiveness |
| title | Está a economia americana superaquecida? |
| title_full | Está a economia americana superaquecida? |
| title_fullStr | Está a economia americana superaquecida? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Está a economia americana superaquecida? |
| title_short | Está a economia americana superaquecida? |
| title_sort | esta a economia americana superaquecida |
| topic | equilibrium level of output and expenditures overvaluation of assets and external competitiveness |
| url | https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/218778 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT rubendalmonacid estaaeconomiaamericanasuperaquecida AT humbertofsspolador estaaeconomiaamericanasuperaquecida |