Exploring the effects and interactions of meteorological factors on the incidence of scrub typhus in Ganzhou City, 2008–2021
Abstract Background Scrub typhus poses a substantial risk to human life and wellbeing as it is transmitted by vectors. Although the correlation between climate and vector-borne diseases has been investigated, the impact of climate on scrub typhus remains inadequately comprehended. The objective of t...
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| Format: | Article |
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BMC
2024-01-01
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| Series: | BMC Public Health |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-17423-8 |
| _version_ | 1797362818158166016 |
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| author | Kailun Pan Renfa Huang Lingui Xu Fen Lin |
| author_facet | Kailun Pan Renfa Huang Lingui Xu Fen Lin |
| author_sort | Kailun Pan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Scrub typhus poses a substantial risk to human life and wellbeing as it is transmitted by vectors. Although the correlation between climate and vector-borne diseases has been investigated, the impact of climate on scrub typhus remains inadequately comprehended. The objective of this study is to investigate the influence of meteorological conditions on the occurrence of scrub typhus in Ganzhou City, Jiangxi Province. Methods From January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2021, we gathered weekly records of scrub typhus prevalence alongside meteorological data in Ganzhou city. In order to investigate the correlation between meteorological factors and scrub typhus incidence, we utilized distributional lag nonlinear models and generalized additive models for our analysis. Results Between 2008 and 2021, a total of 5942 cases of scrub typhus were recorded in Ganzhou City. The number of females affected exceeded that of males, with a male-to-female ratio of 1:1.86. Based on the median values of these meteorological factors, the highest relative risk for scrub typhus occurrence was observed when the weekly average temperature reached 26 °C, the weekly average relative humidity was 75%, the weekly average sunshine duration lasted for 2 h, and the weekly mean wind speed measured 2 m/s. The respective relative risks for these factors were calculated as 3.816 (95% CI: 1.395–10.438), 1.107 (95% CI: 1.008–1.217), 2.063 (95% CI: 1.022–4.165), and 1.284 (95% CI: 1.01–1.632). Interaction analyses showed that the risk of scrub typhus infection in Ganzhou city escalates with higher weekly average temperature and sunshine duration. Conclusion The findings of our investigation provide evidence of a correlation between environmental factors and the occurrence of scrub typhus. As a suggestion, utilizing environmental factors as early indicators could be recommended for initiating control measures and response strategies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T16:12:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f21d03453e5e4e8692c88cc61c2eeb48 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2458 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T16:12:53Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-f21d03453e5e4e8692c88cc61c2eeb482024-01-07T12:52:11ZengBMCBMC Public Health1471-24582024-01-0124111110.1186/s12889-023-17423-8Exploring the effects and interactions of meteorological factors on the incidence of scrub typhus in Ganzhou City, 2008–2021Kailun Pan0Renfa Huang1Lingui Xu2Fen Lin3School of Public Health and Health Management, Gannan Medical UniversityGanzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jiangxi ProvinceSchool of Public Health and Health Management, Gannan Medical UniversitySchool of Public Health and Health Management, Gannan Medical UniversityAbstract Background Scrub typhus poses a substantial risk to human life and wellbeing as it is transmitted by vectors. Although the correlation between climate and vector-borne diseases has been investigated, the impact of climate on scrub typhus remains inadequately comprehended. The objective of this study is to investigate the influence of meteorological conditions on the occurrence of scrub typhus in Ganzhou City, Jiangxi Province. Methods From January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2021, we gathered weekly records of scrub typhus prevalence alongside meteorological data in Ganzhou city. In order to investigate the correlation between meteorological factors and scrub typhus incidence, we utilized distributional lag nonlinear models and generalized additive models for our analysis. Results Between 2008 and 2021, a total of 5942 cases of scrub typhus were recorded in Ganzhou City. The number of females affected exceeded that of males, with a male-to-female ratio of 1:1.86. Based on the median values of these meteorological factors, the highest relative risk for scrub typhus occurrence was observed when the weekly average temperature reached 26 °C, the weekly average relative humidity was 75%, the weekly average sunshine duration lasted for 2 h, and the weekly mean wind speed measured 2 m/s. The respective relative risks for these factors were calculated as 3.816 (95% CI: 1.395–10.438), 1.107 (95% CI: 1.008–1.217), 2.063 (95% CI: 1.022–4.165), and 1.284 (95% CI: 1.01–1.632). Interaction analyses showed that the risk of scrub typhus infection in Ganzhou city escalates with higher weekly average temperature and sunshine duration. Conclusion The findings of our investigation provide evidence of a correlation between environmental factors and the occurrence of scrub typhus. As a suggestion, utilizing environmental factors as early indicators could be recommended for initiating control measures and response strategies.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-17423-8Scrub typhusMeteorological factorsDistributed lag nonlinear modelGeneralized additive modelInteractions |
| spellingShingle | Kailun Pan Renfa Huang Lingui Xu Fen Lin Exploring the effects and interactions of meteorological factors on the incidence of scrub typhus in Ganzhou City, 2008–2021 BMC Public Health Scrub typhus Meteorological factors Distributed lag nonlinear model Generalized additive model Interactions |
| title | Exploring the effects and interactions of meteorological factors on the incidence of scrub typhus in Ganzhou City, 2008–2021 |
| title_full | Exploring the effects and interactions of meteorological factors on the incidence of scrub typhus in Ganzhou City, 2008–2021 |
| title_fullStr | Exploring the effects and interactions of meteorological factors on the incidence of scrub typhus in Ganzhou City, 2008–2021 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Exploring the effects and interactions of meteorological factors on the incidence of scrub typhus in Ganzhou City, 2008–2021 |
| title_short | Exploring the effects and interactions of meteorological factors on the incidence of scrub typhus in Ganzhou City, 2008–2021 |
| title_sort | exploring the effects and interactions of meteorological factors on the incidence of scrub typhus in ganzhou city 2008 2021 |
| topic | Scrub typhus Meteorological factors Distributed lag nonlinear model Generalized additive model Interactions |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-17423-8 |
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