Stochastic modeling of urban growth using the CA-Markov chain and multi-scenario prospects in the tropical humid region of Ethiopia: Mettu
Urban expansion possesses significant negative impacts on the environment, particularly in forest areas worldwide. This study aimed to analyze urban expansion by using stochastic modeling with the CA-Markov chain and multi-scenario prospects in Mettu area, Ethiopia. The Landsat images of 1986, 2000,...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Geocarto International |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10106049.2023.2240285 |
| _version_ | 1797681621549187072 |
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| author | Wendiwesen Megersa Kiros Tsegay Deribew Girmay Abreha Tebarek Liqa Mitiku Badasa Moisa Samuel Hailu Kenate Worku |
| author_facet | Wendiwesen Megersa Kiros Tsegay Deribew Girmay Abreha Tebarek Liqa Mitiku Badasa Moisa Samuel Hailu Kenate Worku |
| author_sort | Wendiwesen Megersa |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Urban expansion possesses significant negative impacts on the environment, particularly in forest areas worldwide. This study aimed to analyze urban expansion by using stochastic modeling with the CA-Markov chain and multi-scenario prospects in Mettu area, Ethiopia. The Landsat images of 1986, 2000, and 2021 were used. The results reveal built-up areas gained 27.2%, of which cropland and forest accounted for 11.4 and 6.4%, respectively, within the 1986–2021 period. Despite the potential decline in urban growth rates, the model revealed that the spatial extent will likely expand twofold before the 2040s. In the rapid development (RD) scenario, urban development due to population increase will occur, which is also prevalent in the proposed suitable urban expansion (PSUE) scenario, but the ecological and economic protection (EEP) scenario reveals very limited. The findings of this study will have far-reaching impacts on ecological and economic livelihoods unless green economy principles are effectively implemented. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T23:47:31Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f231db8bba274340a20def9f8d5650e6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1010-6049 1752-0762 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T23:47:31Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geocarto International |
| spelling | doaj.art-f231db8bba274340a20def9f8d5650e62023-09-19T09:13:18ZengTaylor & Francis GroupGeocarto International1010-60491752-07622023-12-0138110.1080/10106049.2023.22402852240285Stochastic modeling of urban growth using the CA-Markov chain and multi-scenario prospects in the tropical humid region of Ethiopia: MettuWendiwesen Megersa0Kiros Tsegay Deribew1Girmay Abreha2Tebarek Liqa3Mitiku Badasa Moisa4Samuel Hailu5Kenate Worku6Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Dilla UniversityDepartment of Geography and Environmental Studies, Raya UniversityDepartment of Geography and Environmental Studies, Raya UniversityDepartment of Geography and Environmental Studies, Addis Ababa UniversityDepartment of Agricultural Engineering, Faculty of Technology, Wollega University Shambu CampusHorn of Africa Regional Environment Center and Network, Addis Ababa UniversityDepartment of Geography and Environmental Studies, Jimma UniversityUrban expansion possesses significant negative impacts on the environment, particularly in forest areas worldwide. This study aimed to analyze urban expansion by using stochastic modeling with the CA-Markov chain and multi-scenario prospects in Mettu area, Ethiopia. The Landsat images of 1986, 2000, and 2021 were used. The results reveal built-up areas gained 27.2%, of which cropland and forest accounted for 11.4 and 6.4%, respectively, within the 1986–2021 period. Despite the potential decline in urban growth rates, the model revealed that the spatial extent will likely expand twofold before the 2040s. In the rapid development (RD) scenario, urban development due to population increase will occur, which is also prevalent in the proposed suitable urban expansion (PSUE) scenario, but the ecological and economic protection (EEP) scenario reveals very limited. The findings of this study will have far-reaching impacts on ecological and economic livelihoods unless green economy principles are effectively implemented.http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10106049.2023.2240285ecological areaeconomic areascenariourban encroachment |
| spellingShingle | Wendiwesen Megersa Kiros Tsegay Deribew Girmay Abreha Tebarek Liqa Mitiku Badasa Moisa Samuel Hailu Kenate Worku Stochastic modeling of urban growth using the CA-Markov chain and multi-scenario prospects in the tropical humid region of Ethiopia: Mettu Geocarto International ecological area economic area scenario urban encroachment |
| title | Stochastic modeling of urban growth using the CA-Markov chain and multi-scenario prospects in the tropical humid region of Ethiopia: Mettu |
| title_full | Stochastic modeling of urban growth using the CA-Markov chain and multi-scenario prospects in the tropical humid region of Ethiopia: Mettu |
| title_fullStr | Stochastic modeling of urban growth using the CA-Markov chain and multi-scenario prospects in the tropical humid region of Ethiopia: Mettu |
| title_full_unstemmed | Stochastic modeling of urban growth using the CA-Markov chain and multi-scenario prospects in the tropical humid region of Ethiopia: Mettu |
| title_short | Stochastic modeling of urban growth using the CA-Markov chain and multi-scenario prospects in the tropical humid region of Ethiopia: Mettu |
| title_sort | stochastic modeling of urban growth using the ca markov chain and multi scenario prospects in the tropical humid region of ethiopia mettu |
| topic | ecological area economic area scenario urban encroachment |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10106049.2023.2240285 |
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