Event-scale power law recession analysis: quantifying methodological uncertainty
The study of single streamflow recession events is receiving increasing attention following the presentation of novel theoretical explanations for the emergence of power law forms of the recession relationship, and drivers of its variability. Individually characterizing streamflow recessions often i...
Main Authors: | , , , , |
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Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2017-01-01
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Series: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
Online Access: | http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/65/2017/hess-21-65-2017.pdf |
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author | D. N. Dralle N. J. Karst K. Charalampous A. Veenstra S. E. Thompson |
author_facet | D. N. Dralle N. J. Karst K. Charalampous A. Veenstra S. E. Thompson |
author_sort | D. N. Dralle |
collection | DOAJ |
description | The study of single streamflow recession events is receiving
increasing attention following the presentation of novel theoretical
explanations for the emergence of power law forms of the recession
relationship, and drivers of its variability. Individually characterizing
streamflow recessions often involves describing the similarities and
differences between model parameters fitted to each recession time series.
Significant methodological sensitivity has been identified in the fitting and
parameterization of models that describe populations of many recessions, but
the dependence of estimated model parameters on methodological choices has
not been evaluated for event-by-event forms of analysis. Here, we use daily
streamflow data from 16 catchments in northern California and southern Oregon
to investigate how combinations of commonly used streamflow recession
definitions and fitting techniques impact parameter estimates of a
widely used power law recession model. Results are relevant to watersheds
that are relatively steep, forested, and rain-dominated. The highly seasonal
mediterranean climate of northern California and southern Oregon ensures
study catchments explore a wide range of recession behaviors and wetness
states, ideal for a sensitivity analysis. In such catchments, we show the following: (i) methodological decisions, including ones that have received little attention in the literature, can impact parameter value estimates and model goodness of fit; (ii) the central tendencies of event-scale recession
parameter probability distributions are largely robust to methodological
choices, in the sense that differing methods rank catchments similarly
according to the medians of these distributions; (iii) recession parameter
distributions are method-dependent, but roughly catchment-independent, such
that changing the choices made about a particular method affects a given
parameter in similar ways across most catchments; and (iv) the observed
correlative relationship between the power-law recession scale parameter and
catchment antecedent wetness varies depending on recession definition and
fitting choices. Considering study results, we recommend a combination of
four key methodological decisions to maximize the quality of fitted recession
curves, and to minimize bias in the related populations of fitted recession
parameters. |
first_indexed | 2024-12-20T11:02:30Z |
format | Article |
id | doaj.art-f252e4ca9d994fd39ea73bae31e7c9eb |
institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
issn | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |
language | English |
last_indexed | 2024-12-20T11:02:30Z |
publishDate | 2017-01-01 |
publisher | Copernicus Publications |
record_format | Article |
series | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
spelling | doaj.art-f252e4ca9d994fd39ea73bae31e7c9eb2022-12-21T19:43:00ZengCopernicus PublicationsHydrology and Earth System Sciences1027-56061607-79382017-01-01211658110.5194/hess-21-65-2017Event-scale power law recession analysis: quantifying methodological uncertaintyD. N. Dralle0N. J. Karst1K. Charalampous2A. Veenstra3S. E. Thompson4University of California Berkeley, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Berkeley, CA, USABabson College, Department of Mathematics, Wellesley, MA, USAUniversity of California Berkeley, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Berkeley, CA, USAUniversity of California Berkeley, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Berkeley, CA, USAUniversity of California Berkeley, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Berkeley, CA, USAThe study of single streamflow recession events is receiving increasing attention following the presentation of novel theoretical explanations for the emergence of power law forms of the recession relationship, and drivers of its variability. Individually characterizing streamflow recessions often involves describing the similarities and differences between model parameters fitted to each recession time series. Significant methodological sensitivity has been identified in the fitting and parameterization of models that describe populations of many recessions, but the dependence of estimated model parameters on methodological choices has not been evaluated for event-by-event forms of analysis. Here, we use daily streamflow data from 16 catchments in northern California and southern Oregon to investigate how combinations of commonly used streamflow recession definitions and fitting techniques impact parameter estimates of a widely used power law recession model. Results are relevant to watersheds that are relatively steep, forested, and rain-dominated. The highly seasonal mediterranean climate of northern California and southern Oregon ensures study catchments explore a wide range of recession behaviors and wetness states, ideal for a sensitivity analysis. In such catchments, we show the following: (i) methodological decisions, including ones that have received little attention in the literature, can impact parameter value estimates and model goodness of fit; (ii) the central tendencies of event-scale recession parameter probability distributions are largely robust to methodological choices, in the sense that differing methods rank catchments similarly according to the medians of these distributions; (iii) recession parameter distributions are method-dependent, but roughly catchment-independent, such that changing the choices made about a particular method affects a given parameter in similar ways across most catchments; and (iv) the observed correlative relationship between the power-law recession scale parameter and catchment antecedent wetness varies depending on recession definition and fitting choices. Considering study results, we recommend a combination of four key methodological decisions to maximize the quality of fitted recession curves, and to minimize bias in the related populations of fitted recession parameters.http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/65/2017/hess-21-65-2017.pdf |
spellingShingle | D. N. Dralle N. J. Karst K. Charalampous A. Veenstra S. E. Thompson Event-scale power law recession analysis: quantifying methodological uncertainty Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
title | Event-scale power law recession analysis: quantifying methodological uncertainty |
title_full | Event-scale power law recession analysis: quantifying methodological uncertainty |
title_fullStr | Event-scale power law recession analysis: quantifying methodological uncertainty |
title_full_unstemmed | Event-scale power law recession analysis: quantifying methodological uncertainty |
title_short | Event-scale power law recession analysis: quantifying methodological uncertainty |
title_sort | event scale power law recession analysis quantifying methodological uncertainty |
url | http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/65/2017/hess-21-65-2017.pdf |
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