Risk Assessment of Earthquake–Landslide Hazard Chain Based on CF-SVM and Newmark Model—Using Changbai Mountain as an Example
Changbai Mountain is an important part of the development and opening pilot area of Changjitu. It is the birthplace of Songhua River, Yalu River, and Tumen River, and is known as the source of the three rivers. Millions of people live in the basin. A volcanic eruption accompanied by earthquakes woul...
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MDPI AG
2023-03-01
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/3/696 |
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| author | Kai Ke Yichen Zhang Jiquan Zhang Yanan Chen Chenyang Wu Zuoquan Nie Junnan Wu |
| author_facet | Kai Ke Yichen Zhang Jiquan Zhang Yanan Chen Chenyang Wu Zuoquan Nie Junnan Wu |
| author_sort | Kai Ke |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Changbai Mountain is an important part of the development and opening pilot area of Changjitu. It is the birthplace of Songhua River, Yalu River, and Tumen River, and is known as the source of the three rivers. Millions of people live in the basin. A volcanic eruption accompanied by earthquakes would lead to a large number of landslides, debris flows, and show a chain effect, the formation of a secondary geological disaster chain, which is a serious threat to people’s lives and property safety. This paper selected indexes from three aspects: the hazard of earthquake-induced geological disaster chain, the exposure and vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies, and the risk assessment of earthquake-induced geological disaster chain. The sensitivity values of each influence factor were calculated by the certainty factor (CF) using the support vector machine, and then, the susceptibility assessment was obtained. The cumulative displacement calculated by the Newmark model represented the potential risk intensity. We considered the Changbai Mountain volcanic earthquake–landslide disaster chain as an example. The results of risk assessment showed that the extremely high and high risk areas were mainly located within the 12 km radius of Tianchi Lake, and the other areas in the study area were mainly associated with very low to low risk values. The verification results showed that the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve area was 0.8373, indicating that the method was very effective in the identification and assessment of seismic hazard chain risk. In these high-risk areas, relevant countermeasures should be formulated to prevent the risk of geological disasters, strengthen the implementation of regional disaster prevention and reduction work, and ensure the safety of residents’ lives and property. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T06:18:43Z |
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| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-445X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T06:18:43Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
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| series | Land |
| spelling | doaj.art-f25fabc2e82f4b64a0171804c5d0864f2023-11-17T12:08:05ZengMDPI AGLand2073-445X2023-03-0112369610.3390/land12030696Risk Assessment of Earthquake–Landslide Hazard Chain Based on CF-SVM and Newmark Model—Using Changbai Mountain as an ExampleKai Ke0Yichen Zhang1Jiquan Zhang2Yanan Chen3Chenyang Wu4Zuoquan Nie5Junnan Wu6College of Jilin Emergency Management, Changchun Institute of Technology, Changchun 130012, ChinaCollege of Jilin Emergency Management, Changchun Institute of Technology, Changchun 130012, ChinaSchool of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130117, ChinaCollege of Jilin Emergency Management, Changchun Institute of Technology, Changchun 130012, ChinaCollege of Surveying and Mapping Engineering, Changchun Institute of Technology, Changchun 130021, ChinaCollege of Jilin Emergency Management, Changchun Institute of Technology, Changchun 130012, ChinaCollege of Jilin Emergency Management, Changchun Institute of Technology, Changchun 130012, ChinaChangbai Mountain is an important part of the development and opening pilot area of Changjitu. It is the birthplace of Songhua River, Yalu River, and Tumen River, and is known as the source of the three rivers. Millions of people live in the basin. A volcanic eruption accompanied by earthquakes would lead to a large number of landslides, debris flows, and show a chain effect, the formation of a secondary geological disaster chain, which is a serious threat to people’s lives and property safety. This paper selected indexes from three aspects: the hazard of earthquake-induced geological disaster chain, the exposure and vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies, and the risk assessment of earthquake-induced geological disaster chain. The sensitivity values of each influence factor were calculated by the certainty factor (CF) using the support vector machine, and then, the susceptibility assessment was obtained. The cumulative displacement calculated by the Newmark model represented the potential risk intensity. We considered the Changbai Mountain volcanic earthquake–landslide disaster chain as an example. The results of risk assessment showed that the extremely high and high risk areas were mainly located within the 12 km radius of Tianchi Lake, and the other areas in the study area were mainly associated with very low to low risk values. The verification results showed that the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve area was 0.8373, indicating that the method was very effective in the identification and assessment of seismic hazard chain risk. In these high-risk areas, relevant countermeasures should be formulated to prevent the risk of geological disasters, strengthen the implementation of regional disaster prevention and reduction work, and ensure the safety of residents’ lives and property.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/3/696Changbai Mountain Nature ReserveCF-SVM modelNewmark modelrisk assessment |
| spellingShingle | Kai Ke Yichen Zhang Jiquan Zhang Yanan Chen Chenyang Wu Zuoquan Nie Junnan Wu Risk Assessment of Earthquake–Landslide Hazard Chain Based on CF-SVM and Newmark Model—Using Changbai Mountain as an Example Land Changbai Mountain Nature Reserve CF-SVM model Newmark model risk assessment |
| title | Risk Assessment of Earthquake–Landslide Hazard Chain Based on CF-SVM and Newmark Model—Using Changbai Mountain as an Example |
| title_full | Risk Assessment of Earthquake–Landslide Hazard Chain Based on CF-SVM and Newmark Model—Using Changbai Mountain as an Example |
| title_fullStr | Risk Assessment of Earthquake–Landslide Hazard Chain Based on CF-SVM and Newmark Model—Using Changbai Mountain as an Example |
| title_full_unstemmed | Risk Assessment of Earthquake–Landslide Hazard Chain Based on CF-SVM and Newmark Model—Using Changbai Mountain as an Example |
| title_short | Risk Assessment of Earthquake–Landslide Hazard Chain Based on CF-SVM and Newmark Model—Using Changbai Mountain as an Example |
| title_sort | risk assessment of earthquake landslide hazard chain based on cf svm and newmark model using changbai mountain as an example |
| topic | Changbai Mountain Nature Reserve CF-SVM model Newmark model risk assessment |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/3/696 |
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