Intensity of heat stress in winter wheat—phenology compensates for the adverse effect of global warming
Higher temperatures during the growing season are likely to reduce crop yields with implications for crop production and food security. The negative impact of heat stress has also been predicted to increase even further for cereals such as wheat under climate change. Previous empirical modeling stud...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2015-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/2/024012 |
| _version_ | 1827871502067826688 |
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| author | Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei Stefan Siebert Frank Ewert |
| author_facet | Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei Stefan Siebert Frank Ewert |
| author_sort | Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Higher temperatures during the growing season are likely to reduce crop yields with implications for crop production and food security. The negative impact of heat stress has also been predicted to increase even further for cereals such as wheat under climate change. Previous empirical modeling studies have focused on the magnitude and frequency of extreme events during the growth period but did not consider the effect of higher temperature on crop phenology. Based on an extensive set of climate and phenology observations for Germany and period 1951–2009, interpolated to 1 × 1 km resolution and provided as supplementary data to this article (available at http://stacks.iop.org/ERL/10/024012/mmedia ), we demonstrate a strong relationship between the mean temperature in spring and the day of heading (DOH) of winter wheat. We show that the cooling effect due to the 14 days earlier DOH almost fully compensates for the adverse effect of global warming on frequency and magnitude of crop heat stress. Earlier heading caused by the warmer spring period can prevent exposure to extreme heat events around anthesis, which is the most sensitive growth stage to heat stress. Consequently, the intensity of heat stress around anthesis in winter crops cultivated in Germany may not increase under climate change even if the number and duration of extreme heat waves increase. However, this does not mean that global warning would not harm crop production because of other impacts, e.g. shortening of the grain filling period. Based on the trends for the last 34 years in Germany, heat stress (stress thermal time) around anthesis would be 59% higher in year 2009 if the effect of high temperatures on accelerating wheat phenology were ignored. We conclude that climate impact assessments need to consider both the effect of high temperature on grain set at anthesis but also on crop phenology. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:11:01Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f27a5c7b17b449c6831443014ff5e9d4 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:11:01Z |
| publishDate | 2015-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-f27a5c7b17b449c6831443014ff5e9d42023-08-09T14:09:28ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262015-01-0110202401210.1088/1748-9326/10/2/024012Intensity of heat stress in winter wheat—phenology compensates for the adverse effect of global warmingEhsan Eyshi Rezaei0Stefan Siebert1Frank Ewert2Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn , Katzenburgweg 5, D-53115 Bonn, GermanyInstitute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn , Katzenburgweg 5, D-53115 Bonn, GermanyInstitute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn , Katzenburgweg 5, D-53115 Bonn, GermanyHigher temperatures during the growing season are likely to reduce crop yields with implications for crop production and food security. The negative impact of heat stress has also been predicted to increase even further for cereals such as wheat under climate change. Previous empirical modeling studies have focused on the magnitude and frequency of extreme events during the growth period but did not consider the effect of higher temperature on crop phenology. Based on an extensive set of climate and phenology observations for Germany and period 1951–2009, interpolated to 1 × 1 km resolution and provided as supplementary data to this article (available at http://stacks.iop.org/ERL/10/024012/mmedia ), we demonstrate a strong relationship between the mean temperature in spring and the day of heading (DOH) of winter wheat. We show that the cooling effect due to the 14 days earlier DOH almost fully compensates for the adverse effect of global warming on frequency and magnitude of crop heat stress. Earlier heading caused by the warmer spring period can prevent exposure to extreme heat events around anthesis, which is the most sensitive growth stage to heat stress. Consequently, the intensity of heat stress around anthesis in winter crops cultivated in Germany may not increase under climate change even if the number and duration of extreme heat waves increase. However, this does not mean that global warning would not harm crop production because of other impacts, e.g. shortening of the grain filling period. Based on the trends for the last 34 years in Germany, heat stress (stress thermal time) around anthesis would be 59% higher in year 2009 if the effect of high temperatures on accelerating wheat phenology were ignored. We conclude that climate impact assessments need to consider both the effect of high temperature on grain set at anthesis but also on crop phenology.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/2/024012extreme eventshigh temperaturephenologywinter wheatclimate changecrop production |
| spellingShingle | Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei Stefan Siebert Frank Ewert Intensity of heat stress in winter wheat—phenology compensates for the adverse effect of global warming Environmental Research Letters extreme events high temperature phenology winter wheat climate change crop production |
| title | Intensity of heat stress in winter wheat—phenology compensates for the adverse effect of global warming |
| title_full | Intensity of heat stress in winter wheat—phenology compensates for the adverse effect of global warming |
| title_fullStr | Intensity of heat stress in winter wheat—phenology compensates for the adverse effect of global warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Intensity of heat stress in winter wheat—phenology compensates for the adverse effect of global warming |
| title_short | Intensity of heat stress in winter wheat—phenology compensates for the adverse effect of global warming |
| title_sort | intensity of heat stress in winter wheat phenology compensates for the adverse effect of global warming |
| topic | extreme events high temperature phenology winter wheat climate change crop production |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/2/024012 |
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